{"name":"Oil prices and the cost of IT: UK, US and EU official price series, pass-through estimates and 2026 changes","publisher":"Servnet","url":"https://www.servnetuk.com/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026","study":"oil-prices-it-costs-2026","title":"Oil prices and the cost of IT: UK, US and EU price data, 1996-2026","built":"2026-09-19T11:47:56Z","builtNote":"Set to the latest input-file generation time so a rebuild from the same inputs is byte-identical.","fixesApplied":"Verification fixes of 19 Sep 2026, two rounds (facts, legal/originality and numbers reports, then their re-verification reports) applied by scripts/research/oil-it/apply_verify_fixes.py and this script; item-by-item map in data/research/oil-it-2026/FIXES.md. Page numbers are recomputed by scripts/research/oil-it/verify.py.","baselineMonth":"2026-02","sensitivityBaselineMonth":"2025-12","conflictStart":"2026-02-28","statusAsOf":{"date":"2026-09-19","summary":"The conflict involving Iran that began on 28 February 2026 was continuing in mid-September, with no ceasefire in force (CNBC, 17 Sep; PBS/AP). The 17 June memorandum of understanding broke down in July and its 60-day window ended on 17 August (PBS/AP). The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has been in force again since 14 July (CENTCOM release of 13 July), and the US and Iran exchanged strikes on 30 August and from 1 September (NPR; CNBC). Hormuz traffic: JMIC (Update 096, 13 Sep) recorded 70 US-facilitated transits over 10-12 September (about 23 a day) against a 2025 baseline of about 138 a day, plus 1-10 non-facilitated cargo-vessel and 0-4 tanker transits a day over 6-12 September; ship trackers differ in what they count. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the main Hormuz bypass, was shut on 11 September (JMIC; CNBC); on 14 September PBS/AP reported it would be mostly out of service for several weeks. The IEA says Ras Laffan has been offline since the 2 March attack (IEA topic page, September 2026). The Houthis were reported on 11 September to have taken control of Yemen's Red Sea coast next to Bab el-Mandeb (Al Jazeera; NPR). Seven OPEC+ countries kept October production requirements unchanged (OPEC, 6 Sep). AWS said on 15 September that data held only in its Bahrain Region (me-south-1) or only in the UAE zone mec1-az2 cannot be restored (AWS Health Dashboard).","sources":[{"name":"JMIC (via UKMTO), Update 096 to Advisory Note 001-26","date":"2026-09-13","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-096-jmic-advisory-note-13-september.pdf"},{"name":"PBS NewsHour (AP)","date":"2026-09-14","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/saudi-oil-pipeline-hit-in-strikes-will-be-mostly-out-of-service-for-several-weeks"},{"name":"International Energy Agency (topic page)","date":"2026-09","url":"https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets"},{"name":"US Central Command","date":"2026-07-13","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/"},{"name":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-09-06","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1835613-6-september-2026.html"},{"name":"AWS Health Dashboard","date":"2026-09-15","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status"},{"name":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-17","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html"}],"brent":"Measures differ and are not interchangeable. The World Bank monthly average, the series this study analyses, was US$90.9 a barrel in August 2026, against US$71.1 in February 2026. The Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA; upstream source Refinitiv) was $130.80 on 15 September 2026, near its 2026 daily high of $138.21 on 7 April 2026. CNBC reported the November futures contract at $104.28 on 17 September.","uk":"Ofgem domestic price cap: +13% from 1 July and +4% from 1 October 2026 (Ofgem, 27 May and 26 Aug 2026). DESNZ weekly road fuel prices on 14 September 2026: petrol 168.14p and diesel 190.72p a litre; petrol was the highest since 5 September 2022 and compares with 131.71p on 23 February 2026. VAT on domestic electricity, and on supplies that qualify for the domestic reduced rate (for example small businesses under the de minimis threshold and charities), is removed from 1 October 2026 (GOV.UK, 21 Jul 2026); standard business supplies and gas are not covered."},"framing":"Planning evidence for organisations that buy and run IT. Neutral on the conflict; no casualty figures, operation names or attribution of blame in Servnet's voice; no forecasts of oil, energy, freight or IT prices (including third-party forecasts); no investment advice. Correlation is not causation.","licence":{"statement":"Servnet's derived statistics and compilation: CC BY 4.0. Each third-party series keeps its own licence, given in the licence and attribution columns. ECB values are unmodified and may not be modified. BMRS-derived values carry the Elexon attribution requirement.","dataset":"CC BY 4.0 (Servnet compilation and derived statistics only)","licenceUrl":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","upstream":"Each third-party series keeps its own licence and attribution line (series[].licence, series[].attribution, and the CSV licence and attribution columns).","ecb":"ECB values are unmodified and may not be modified (ESCB reuse policy).","elexon":"Contains BMRS data © Elexon Limited copyright and database right 2026. Anyone who re-uses or sub-licenses these values must keep this attribution statement and require any further sub-licensees to do the same (Elexon BMRS licence). Licence: https://www.elexon.co.uk/bsc/data/balancing-mechanism-reporting-agent/copyright-licence-bmrs-data/","withheld":"EIA spot-price observations (Brent, WTI, jet fuel) are not published; see withheldSeries.","readme":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-README.txt"},"page":{"status":"draft for review: publication-ready wording checked against the 2026-09-19 verification reports and the second-round re-verification reports (VERIFY-*-2.md); every number in this block is recomputed by scripts/research/oil-it/verify.py","studyDescription":"Original analysis of open official data (ONS, DESNZ, HMRC, BLS, EIA, Eurostat, the World Bank and others), with every number traceable to its source.","naming":"First mention: \"the conflict involving Iran (from 28 February 2026)\"; afterwards \"the conflict\" or \"the 2026 conflict\". No operation names, casualty figures or attribution of blame in Servnet's voice.","keyFindings":[{"grade":"A","id":"uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil","text":"UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with oil in 2026. From February to August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%, while UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products changed −1.8% and UK consumer prices for information processing equipment were 2.5% lower in August than a year earlier.","refs":["findings[id=uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil]","now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].pctVsYearEarlier"],"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0)."},{"grade":"A-confounded","id":"producer-computer-prices-memory","text":"Producer prices for computers did rise: UK C262 by 15.2% and US computer and peripheral equipment by 18.1% from February to August 2026. Both began rising before the conflict (C262 +5.6% and US PPI +2.9% in the three months to February 2026); most of the US rise came after April (index 63.4 in April, 74.5 in August). The rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices; the vendor statements and filings reviewed cite memory and component costs, and none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.","refs":["findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory]","findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory].numbers.ukC262PctThreeMonthsToFeb","findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory].numbers.usComputerPPI.indexFebAprAug","confounders[type=finding]"],"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); vendor statements and company filings (SEC EDGAR)."},{"grade":"B-null","id":"no-detectable-link-it-hardware","text":"Since 1996 (since 2009 for UK C26 import prices), three IT hardware price indices show no detectable link with oil: even conservative intervals rule out more than about a 1% move per 10% move in the Brent monthly average for UK C26 import prices (+0.004), US import prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors (+0.020) and US producer prices for computers (+0.031). For the main consumer IT indices (UK CPI 09.1.3, US CPI computers, and euro-area and EU27 HICP information processing equipment) the data cannot rule out a modest link.","refs":["findings[id=no-detectable-link-it-hardware]","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].sampleStart","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR213].sampleStart","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].sampleStart"],"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); Eurostat; World Bank (CC BY 4.0)."},{"grade":"B","id":"freight-and-materials-link","text":"Fuel prices, UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series (US deep-sea and scheduled air freight, UK road freight) show a robust link with oil. A 10% higher Brent monthly average (World Bank) has been followed within 12 months by about 2.2% higher US producer prices for deep-sea freight (elasticity +0.227, 95% CI +0.131 to +0.323) and about 2.2% higher UK import prices for plastics in primary forms (+0.229, 95% CI +0.119 to +0.340). US air-freight import price indices, US freight transport arrangement, UK cargo handling and UK sea and coastal freight show no detectable link.","refs":["findings[id=freight-passthrough]","findings[id=materials-passthrough]","findings[id=method-validation]","findings[id=freight-passthrough].numbers.counts","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].verdict"],"sourceNote":"U.S. BLS (public domain); ONS (OGL v3.0); DESNZ (OGL v3.0); World Bank (CC BY 4.0)."},{"grade":"A","id":"uk-freight-services-record-quarter","text":"UK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, the largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996. ONS attributes the rise in transport and storage prices mainly to higher shipping rates and fuel charges resulting from the conflict.","refs":["findings[id=uk-freight-services-record-quarter]","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterPct","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterLargestSince"],"sourceNote":"ONS services producer price indices and bulletin of 22 July 2026 (OGL v3.0)."},{"grade":"A (2026 prices); C (2021-23 lag)","id":"business-electricity","text":"Business electricity had moved little by 2026 Q1, which includes only one month after the conflict began: the average UK non-domestic price was 24.14p/kWh against 23.99p in 2025 Q4, while the GB wholesale system price rose 64.6% from February to August 2026. In 2021-23 the average business price peaked five quarters after the wholesale system price (4-6 quarters across the size bands from Small to Extra Large); that is one episode, affected by government support schemes, and not a forecast.","refs":["findings[id=business-electricity-2026]","findings[id=business-electricity-lag-2021-23]","runningCost.measuredLag2021to2023"],"sourceNote":"DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices (OGL v3.0); ONS system price (contains BMRS data © Elexon)."},{"grade":"A","id":"gulf-and-air-exposure","text":"Direct Gulf exposure is small; exposure to air freight is not. 0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 was dispatched from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (a lower bound: HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin), while between 47.5% and 67.9% arrived by air (59.7% of value with a verified mode).","refs":["findings[id=gulf-dispatch-share-small]","findings[id=uk-it-imports-by-air]"],"sourceNote":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (OGL v3.0), derived by Servnet."}],"summary":{"text":"This study tests whether the rise in oil prices after the conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026 has reached what UK organisations pay for IT. It uses open official data: 93 price series from the UK, US and EU, eight oil price episodes since 2008, HMRC trade records and DESNZ energy prices. Between February and August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%, but UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with it; over samples starting in 1996 or 2009, three IT hardware indices show no detectable link with oil. Fuel prices, UK plastics and aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series show a robust link with oil. In 2026 Q2, UK freight-related transport support prices (SPPI H5229) had their largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996. Producer prices for computers rose, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices. The study makes no forecasts. It sets out what has moved, what has not, and what IT budget holders can check.","sentences":[{"text":"This study tests whether the rise in oil prices after the conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026 has reached what UK organisations pay for IT.","refs":["conflictStart"]},{"text":"It uses open official data: 93 price series from the UK, US and EU, eight oil price episodes since 2008, HMRC trade records and DESNZ energy prices.","refs":["passThrough","episodes"]},{"text":"Between February and August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%, but UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with it; over samples starting in 1996 or 2009, three IT hardware indices show no detectable link with oil.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].pctVsBaseline","findings[id=uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil]","findings[id=no-detectable-link-it-hardware]"]},{"text":"Fuel prices, UK plastics and aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series show a robust link with oil.","refs":["findings[id=freight-passthrough]","findings[id=materials-passthrough]","findings[id=method-validation]"]},{"text":"In 2026 Q2, UK freight-related transport support prices (SPPI H5229) had their largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996.","refs":["findings[id=uk-freight-services-record-quarter]","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterLargestSince"]},{"text":"Producer prices for computers rose, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices.","refs":["findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory]"]},{"text":"The study makes no forecasts. It sets out what has moved, what has not, and what IT budget holders can check.","refs":["framing"]}],"wordCount":176},"sections":{"whatHappened":{"text":"The conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026, the start date used by the IEA and EIA. EIA estimates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about three-quarters between 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q2 (−77.3%), and LNG flows by about 92% (EIA estimates; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026). The Brent monthly average (World Bank) peaked in April 2026 at US$120.4 a barrel, 69.3% above February, and was US$90.9 in August 2026. The timeline lists dated, sourced events that matter for energy, shipping and IT, without casualty figures; attacks are attributed only as the parties or official bodies reported them.","sentences":[{"text":"The conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026, the start date used by the IEA and EIA.","refs":["conflictStart","timeline[date=2026-02-28]"]},{"text":"EIA estimates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about three-quarters between 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q2 (−77.3%), and LNG flows by about 92% (EIA estimates; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026).","refs":["freight.hormuz.eiaQuarterly"]},{"text":"The Brent monthly average (World Bank) peaked in April 2026 at US$120.4 a barrel, 69.3% above February, and was US$90.9 in August 2026.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].peakSinceBaseline","now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].latest"]},{"text":"The timeline lists dated, sourced events that matter for energy, shipping and IT, without casualty figures; attacks are attributed only as the parties or official bodies reported them.","refs":["timeline","framing"]}],"title":"What happened"},"whatMovedAndWhatDidNot":{"text":"Measured from February to August 2026 against each index's own history, fuel prices, most freight price indices, and plastics and aluminium prices rose, while UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not. US and euro-area consumer IT prices and UK and US producer prices for computers did rise, and those rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices that was under way during 2025 (TrendForce: 4Q25 conventional DRAM contract prices +45-50% quarter on quarter). Record claims compare every window of the same length in each series, including windows that overlap 2026.","sentences":[{"text":"Measured from February to August 2026 against each index's own history, fuel prices, most freight price indices, and plastics and aluminium prices rose, while UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not.","refs":["now2026","findings[id=uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil]"]},{"text":"US and euro-area consumer IT prices and UK and US producer prices for computers did rise, and those rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices that was under way during 2025 (TrendForce: 4Q25 conventional DRAM contract prices +45-50% quarter on quarter).","refs":["findings[id=us-eu-consumer-it-prices-rose]","findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory]","confounders[type=memory,sourceLabel=TrendForce, 26 Feb 2026]"]},{"text":"Record claims compare every window of the same length in each series, including windows that overlap 2026.","refs":["method.definitions.largestMoveSince"]}],"title":"What moved and what did not"},"passThroughEvidence":{"text":"To look beyond one episode, the study estimates how each index has moved in the 12 months after changes in the Brent monthly average (World Bank), from 1996 or the start of each series, controlling for seasonality and, for UK and EU series, exchange rates. The same model finds the expected link for fuels, for example UK sterling import prices for crude oil (elasticity +1.040). UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series (US deep-sea and scheduled air freight, UK road freight) also show robust links; US air-freight import price indices, US freight transport arrangement, UK cargo handling and UK sea and coastal freight show no detectable link. Three IT hardware indices show no detectable link, and the main consumer IT indices are too imprecise to rule out a modest one. Correlation is not causation: the estimates describe how prices have moved together, not why.","sentences":[{"text":"To look beyond one episode, the study estimates how each index has moved in the 12 months after changes in the Brent monthly average (World Bank), from 1996 or the start of each series, controlling for seasonality and, for UK and EU series, exchange rates.","refs":["method.passThroughModel","passThrough"]},{"text":"The same model finds the expected link for fuels, for example UK sterling import prices for crude oil (elasticity +1.040).","refs":["findings[id=method-validation]"]},{"text":"UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series (US deep-sea and scheduled air freight, UK road freight) also show robust links; US air-freight import price indices, US freight transport arrangement, UK cargo handling and UK sea and coastal freight show no detectable link.","refs":["findings[id=freight-passthrough]","findings[id=materials-passthrough]","findings[id=freight-passthrough].numbers.counts"]},{"text":"Three IT hardware indices show no detectable link, and the main consumer IT indices are too imprecise to rule out a modest one.","refs":["findings[id=no-detectable-link-it-hardware]"]},{"text":"Correlation is not causation: the estimates describe how prices have moved together, not why.","refs":["caveats[0]"]}],"title":"Pass-through evidence"},"freightAndTrade":{"text":"Several freight price indices rose in 2026. UK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, and US import air-freight prices rose 21.2% from February to August 2026. HMRC data show that between 47.5% and 67.9% of UK IT import value arrived by air in 2025, and that 0.95% was dispatched from the six GCC states (a lower bound: HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin).","sentences":[{"text":"Several freight price indices rose in 2026.","refs":["findings[id=uk-freight-services-record-quarter]","findings[id=us-import-air-freight]","freight.freightPriceMoves2026"]},{"text":"UK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, and US import air-freight prices rose 21.2% from February to August 2026.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterPct","now2026[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].pctVsBaseline"]},{"text":"HMRC data show that between 47.5% and 67.9% of UK IT import value arrived by air in 2025, and that 0.95% was dispatched from the six GCC states (a lower bound: HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin).","refs":["findings[id=uk-it-imports-by-air]","findings[id=gulf-dispatch-share-small]"]}],"title":"Freight and trade"},"materialsAndGulfExposure":{"text":"The Gulf supplies materials used in IT hardware: on USGS estimates, Bahrain and the UAE produced 5.8% of the world's primary aluminium in 2025, and Qatar 33% of its helium. UK import prices for plastics in primary forms rose 23.4% and UK aluminium producer prices 17.7% from February to August 2026. The GCC-dispatched share of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (a lower bound) fell to 15.3% in April and 14.2% in June 2026, the lowest since June 2023, before returning to 28.4% in July (2025: 31.0%; 2023-25 monthly range 12-47%).","sentences":[{"text":"The Gulf supplies materials used in IT hardware: on USGS estimates, Bahrain and the UAE produced 5.8% of the world's primary aluminium in 2025, and Qatar 33% of its helium.","refs":["exposure[input^=Primary aluminium: Bahrain and UAE]","exposure[input^=Helium: Qatar share of world production]"]},{"text":"UK import prices for plastics in primary forms rose 23.4% and UK aluminium producer prices 17.7% from February to August 2026.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].pctVsBaseline"]},{"text":"The GCC-dispatched share of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (a lower bound) fell to 15.3% in April and 14.2% in June 2026, the lowest since June 2023, before returning to 28.4% in July (2025: 31.0%; 2023-25 monthly range 12-47%).","refs":["exposure2026[measure^=UK unwrought aluminium]"]}],"title":"Materials and Gulf exposure"},"energyAndRunningCosts":{"text":"Wholesale energy prices rose in 2026: the GB electricity system price by 64.6% and the GB gas system average price by 88.8% from February to August. The latest DESNZ business electricity prices, for 2026 Q1 (which includes only one month after the conflict began), show little change, and 2026 Q2 prices are due on 29 September 2026. The running-cost figures are illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast, and use the DESNZ price band that matches the load.","sentences":[{"text":"Wholesale energy prices rose in 2026: the GB electricity system price by 64.6% and the GB gas system average price by 88.8% from February to August.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_electricity_system_price_monthly].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_gas_sap_monthly].pctVsBaseline"]},{"text":"The latest DESNZ business electricity prices, for 2026 Q1 (which includes only one month after the conflict began), show little change, and 2026 Q2 prices are due on 29 September 2026.","refs":["findings[id=business-electricity-2026]","runningCost.desnzNextUpdate"]},{"text":"The running-cost figures are illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast, and use the DESNZ price band that matches the load.","refs":["runningCost.label","runningCost.bandRule"]}],"title":"Energy and running costs"},"whatThisMeansForItBudgets":{"text":"These data show where IT costs have moved with oil and where they have not. Organisations planning IT budgets can check when their energy contracts renew and which DESNZ price band their sites fall into. They can review freight, fuel-surcharge and delivery terms on hardware orders. They can budget memory-sensitive items, such as servers, storage and SSDs, separately from energy and freight costs. And they can test recovery plans for any workloads hosted in the affected Gulf cloud regions. None of this is a forecast or advice on when to buy.","sentences":[{"text":"These data show where IT costs have moved with oil and where they have not.","refs":["findings"]},{"text":"Organisations planning IT budgets can check when their energy contracts renew and which DESNZ price band their sites fall into.","refs":["runningCost.bandRule","findings[id=business-electricity-2026]"]},{"text":"They can review freight, fuel-surcharge and delivery terms on hardware orders.","refs":["findings[id=uk-freight-services-record-quarter]"]},{"text":"They can budget memory-sensitive items, such as servers, storage and SSDs, separately from energy and freight costs.","refs":["findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory]"]},{"text":"And they can test recovery plans for any workloads hosted in the affected Gulf cloud regions.","refs":["exposureEvents2026[category=cloud]"]},{"text":"None of this is a forecast or advice on when to buy.","refs":["framing"]}],"title":"What this means for IT budgets","framing":"Advice framing: procedural planning steps only; no forecasts, no purchase timing."}},"faq":[{"q":"Has the 2026 conflict involving Iran made computers more expensive in the UK?","a":{"text":"Not on the official UK import and consumer price indices. From February to August 2026 UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products changed −1.8%, and UK consumer prices for information processing equipment were 2.5% lower in August than a year earlier, while the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%. UK producer prices for computers and peripherals rose 15.2%, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices.","sentences":[{"text":"Not on the official UK import and consumer price indices.","refs":["findings[id=uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil]"]},{"text":"From February to August 2026 UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products changed −1.8%, and UK consumer prices for information processing equipment were 2.5% lower in August than a year earlier, while the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].pctVsYearEarlier","now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].pctVsBaseline"]},{"text":"UK producer prices for computers and peripherals rose 15.2%, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].pctVsBaseline"]}]}},{"q":"Why are computer prices going up in 2026?","a":{"text":"Where computer prices have risen in 2026, the rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices that was under way during 2025: Raspberry Pi said in October 2025 that memory then cost about 120% more than a year earlier. TrendForce reported that conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93-98% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026 (press release, 1 June 2026). The vendor statements and filings reviewed, including those of HP, HPE, Dell and Cisco, cite memory and component costs; none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.","sentences":[{"text":"Where computer prices have risen in 2026, the rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices that was under way during 2025: Raspberry Pi said in October 2025 that memory then cost about 120% more than a year earlier.","refs":["findings[id=producer-computer-prices-memory]","findings[id=us-eu-consumer-it-prices-rose]","confounders[type=vendorStatements,date=2025-10-01]"]},{"text":"TrendForce reported that conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93-98% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026 (press release, 1 June 2026).","refs":["confounders[type=memory,sourceLabel=TrendForce, 1 Jun 2026]"]},{"text":"The vendor statements and filings reviewed, including those of HP, HPE, Dell and Cisco, cite memory and component costs; none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.","refs":["confounders[type=finding]"]}]}},{"q":"Do oil prices affect computer prices?","a":{"text":"Not detectably, in these data. Over samples starting in 1996 (2009 for UK C26 import prices), three IT hardware price indices show no link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average larger than about a 1% move per 10% Brent move, while fuel prices, UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series show a robust link. For the main consumer IT price indices the data cannot rule out a modest link, and correlation is not causation.","sentences":[{"text":"Not detectably, in these data.","refs":["findings[id=no-detectable-link-it-hardware]"]},{"text":"Over samples starting in 1996 (2009 for UK C26 import prices), three IT hardware price indices show no link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average larger than about a 1% move per 10% Brent move, while fuel prices, UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series show a robust link.","refs":["findings[id=no-detectable-link-it-hardware]","findings[id=freight-passthrough]","findings[id=materials-passthrough]","findings[id=method-validation]"]},{"text":"For the main consumer IT price indices the data cannot rule out a modest link, and correlation is not causation.","refs":["findings[grade=C-null]","caveats[0]"]}]}},{"q":"How has the conflict affected energy prices for UK businesses?","a":{"text":"Wholesale prices rose: the GB electricity system price by 64.6% and the GB gas system average price by 88.8% from February to August 2026. The latest official business prices, for 2026 Q1 (which includes only one month after the conflict began), were little changed (24.14p/kWh on average against 23.99p in 2025 Q4), and DESNZ publishes 2026 Q2 prices on 29 September 2026. In 2021-23 the average business price peaked five quarters after the wholesale system price (4-6 quarters across the size bands from Small to Extra Large); that was one episode and is not a forecast.","sentences":[{"text":"Wholesale prices rose: the GB electricity system price by 64.6% and the GB gas system average price by 88.8% from February to August 2026.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_electricity_system_price_monthly].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_gas_sap_monthly].pctVsBaseline"]},{"text":"The latest official business prices, for 2026 Q1 (which includes only one month after the conflict began), were little changed (24.14p/kWh on average against 23.99p in 2025 Q4), and DESNZ publishes 2026 Q2 prices on 29 September 2026.","refs":["findings[id=business-electricity-2026]","runningCost.desnzNextUpdate"]},{"text":"In 2021-23 the average business price peaked five quarters after the wholesale system price (4-6 quarters across the size bands from Small to Extra Large); that was one episode and is not a forecast.","refs":["findings[id=business-electricity-lag-2021-23]","runningCost.measuredLag2021to2023"]}]}},{"q":"Is the helium supply disruption affecting chips?","a":{"text":"Qatar produced about 33% of the world's helium in 2025 (USGS estimate), and QatarEnergy said the damage at Ras Laffan in March 2026 removed output equal to about 14% of Qatar's helium exports. This study does not measure chip prices by input, so it cannot show whether that has affected chip prices. UK helium imports dispatched from Qatar are small and irregular: Qatar was the dispatch country for 4.3% of UK helium import value in 2025, and there were ten months with none in 2024.","sentences":[{"text":"Qatar produced about 33% of the world's helium in 2025 (USGS estimate), and QatarEnergy said the damage at Ras Laffan in March 2026 removed output equal to about 14% of Qatar's helium exports.","refs":["exposure[input^=Helium: Qatar share of world production]","exposureEvents2026[date=2026-03-19,category=lng-helium]"]},{"text":"This study does not measure chip prices by input, so it cannot show whether that has affected chip prices.","refs":["gaps.analysis"]},{"text":"UK helium imports dispatched from Qatar are small and irregular: Qatar was the dispatch country for 4.3% of UK helium import value in 2025, and there were ten months with none in 2024.","refs":["exposure2026[measure^=UK helium imports]"]}]}},{"q":"Were AWS data centres in the Gulf affected?","a":{"text":"Yes. AWS reported that objects struck a facility in its UAE Region on 1 March 2026, and that drone strikes affected facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. On 15 September 2026 AWS said it could not restore data held only in its Bahrain Region (me-south-1) or only in one UAE zone (mec1-az2). Organisations with workloads there can follow AWS guidance and test recovery into other Regions.","sentences":[{"text":"Yes. AWS reported that objects struck a facility in its UAE Region on 1 March 2026, and that drone strikes affected facilities in the UAE and Bahrain.","refs":["exposureEvents2026[date=2026-03-01,category=cloud]","exposureEvents2026[date=2026-03-03,category=cloud]"]},{"text":"On 15 September 2026 AWS said it could not restore data held only in its Bahrain Region (me-south-1) or only in one UAE zone (mec1-az2).","refs":["exposureEvents2026[date=2026-09-15,category=cloud]"]},{"text":"Organisations with workloads there can follow AWS guidance and test recovery into other Regions.","refs":["exposureEvents2026[date=2026-03-02,category=cloud]"]}]},"relatedLink":"/news/aws-iran-strikes-data-loss-2026"},{"q":"How much of the UK's IT imports come from the Gulf?","a":{"text":"Little directly: 0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 was dispatched from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states (0.73% in January-July 2026). HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin, so this is a lower bound, and goods that pass through Gulf air hubs keep their original dispatch country.","sentences":[{"text":"Little directly: 0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 was dispatched from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states (0.73% in January-July 2026).","refs":["findings[id=gulf-dispatch-share-small]"]},{"text":"HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin, so this is a lower bound, and goods that pass through Gulf air hubs keep their original dispatch country.","refs":["findings[id=gulf-dispatch-share-small]","caveats"]}]}},{"q":"What can IT buyers do with this?","a":{"text":"Plan with the evidence rather than a forecast: check energy contract renewal dates and your DESNZ price band, review freight and surcharge terms on hardware orders, budget memory-sensitive items separately from energy and freight, and test disaster recovery for any workloads in affected cloud regions. This study does not forecast prices and does not recommend when to buy.","sentences":[{"text":"Plan with the evidence rather than a forecast: check energy contract renewal dates and your DESNZ price band, review freight and surcharge terms on hardware orders, budget memory-sensitive items separately from energy and freight, and test disaster recovery for any workloads in affected cloud regions.","refs":["page.sections.whatThisMeansForItBudgets"]},{"text":"This study does not forecast prices and does not recommend when to buy.","refs":["framing"]}]}}],"gradesShown":"Show each finding's grade beside it, with the definitions in findingGrades.","seo":{"note":"Suggested wording; neutral naming (the 2026 conflict involving Iran) and only A/B-graded claims.","titleTag":"Oil Prices, the 2026 Iran Conflict and IT Costs: UK Data","h1":"Oil prices, the 2026 conflict involving Iran and the cost of IT: UK, US and EU price data since 1996","metaDescription":"Did the 2026 Iran conflict raise UK IT prices? IT import and consumer prices did not follow oil; fuel, plastics and some freight did. 93 price series analysed.","metaDescriptionNote":"Under 160 characters; no start year is claimed because sample starts differ (1996 or the series start).","slug":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026"},"datasetSchemaHints":{"@type":"Dataset","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","creator":"Servnet (organisation; no individual author)","isBasedOn":["Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System","Department for Energy Security and Net Zero","Derived by Servnet from HMRC OTS","Derived by Servnet from METI Petroleum Statistics","Derived by Servnet from Taiwan Energy Administration data","Elexon Limited","Energy Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs","European Central Bank","Eurostat","HM Revenue & Customs","Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry","Office for National Statistics","Servnet calculation from HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk datasets","U.S. Energy Information Administration","U.S. Energy Information Administration, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement","US Bureau of Labor Statistics","World Bank, Prospects Group"],"distribution":["/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026.csv","/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-episodes.csv","/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-passthrough.csv","/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-now2026.csv","/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-README.txt"],"licenceNote":"CC BY 4.0 covers Servnet's compilation and derived statistics only; each series keeps its own licence (see licence.statement)."},"licenceNotice":"Servnet's derived statistics and compilation: CC BY 4.0. Each third-party series keeps its own licence, given in the licence and attribution columns. ECB values are unmodified and may not be modified. BMRS-derived values carry the Elexon attribution requirement.","relatedLinks":[{"section":"whatHappened","href":"/news/aws-iran-strikes-data-loss-2026","why":"Gulf cloud-region events and disaster-recovery guidance"},{"section":"whatMovedAndWhatDidNot","href":"/research/enterprise-server-price-index-2026","why":"memory-driven server price rises"},{"section":"whatMovedAndWhatDidNot","href":"/research/ddr5-server-memory-price-tracker-2026","why":"memory prices"},{"section":"whatMovedAndWhatDidNot","href":"/news/ai-memory-shortage-2026-uk-prices","why":"memory prices and UK hardware"},{"section":"whatMovedAndWhatDidNot","href":"/insights/buy-servers-now-or-wait-2026-memory-spike","why":"memory prices and purchasing"},{"section":"freightAndTrade","href":"/research/server-lead-time-supply-chain-tracker-2026","why":"supply-chain timing"},{"section":"energyAndRunningCosts","href":"/insights/server-running-cost-electricity-uk-2026","why":"worked running-cost example (same DESNZ tables)"},{"section":"energyAndRunningCosts","href":"/server-power-consumption-calculator","why":"calculate your own load"},{"section":"energyAndRunningCosts","href":"/rack-space-power-density-planner","why":"rack power planning"},{"section":"whatThisMeansForItBudgets","href":"/insights/protecting-it-budgets-2026-hardware-inflation","why":"budget planning steps"},{"section":"whatThisMeansForItBudgets","href":"/it-hardware-refresh-planner","why":"refresh planning"},{"section":"whatThisMeansForItBudgets","href":"/new-vs-refurbished-server-calculator","why":"cost comparison"}]},"method":{"episodeRule":"A month t is flagged when the Brent monthly average (World Bank) moves by at least 1.25 standard deviations of 6-month log changes (SD calibrated on 1990-01 to 2025-12 = 0.2589; threshold 0.3236 log points, i.e. a rise of 38.2% or a fall of 27.6%) between t and the most extreme month in t+1..t+6. Consecutive flagged months moving in the same direction and no more than 3 months apart form one episode; its baseline is the flagged month with the largest move. Named historical episodes are the flagged episodes whose baselines fall in stated windows. June 2025 and the 2026 conflict are event-dated using the checked timeline.","episodeResponse":"For each index: percentage change from the baseline month to +3, +6 and +12 months. Excess = that change minus the change implied by continuing the index's own average log growth over the 24 months to the baseline. Quarterly indices use the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year) and +1/+2/+4 quarters.","passThroughModel":"dln(Y_t) = a + seasonal dummies + sum_{k=0..12} b_k dln(Brent_{t-k}) [+ sum_{k=0..12} c_k dln(FX_{t-k}) for UK and EU series] + e_t, monthly; quarterly series use 0..4 quarterly lags. Brent in US dollars (World Bank monthly average, quarterly mean for quarterly series); FX = US dollars per pound (UK) or per euro (EU), Federal Reserve H.10. Cumulative elasticity = sum of b_k. Newey-West (Bartlett) HAC standard errors with 12 monthly / 4 quarterly lags, small-sample factor n/(n-k); 95% CI = estimate +/- 1.96 SE. Dependent-variable sample from 1996-01 or the series start. Robustness: sample ending 2026-02 (pre-conflict) and sample starting 2010-01. Benjamini-Hochberg q-values across all main-sample regressions. HAC intervals are somewhat narrow in finite samples: in Servnet Monte Carlo checks of this exact design (13 Brent lags, HAC lag 12, n = 220-360, AR(1) errors with coefficient 0 to 0.7) nominal 95% intervals covered the true value 88-93% of the time and the empirical 95th percentile of |t| was 2.28-2.44, i.e. up to 1.25 x 1.96; verdicts therefore use a conservative interval widened by 1.25. Residual first-order autocorrelation is reported for each regression.","verdicts":{"robust":"the conservative CI (95% CI widened by 1.25) excludes zero in the main sample and in both robustness samples with the same sign, and BH q < 0.05","significant-not-robust":"the 95% CI excludes zero in the main sample, but the result fails at least one robustness condition","null-precise":"the 95% CI includes zero and the conservative CI lies entirely within -0.1 to +0.1, ruling out more than about a 1% index move per 10% move in the Brent monthly average in either direction","null-imprecise":"the 95% CI includes zero and the conservative CI is wider than +/-0.1: the data cannot rule out a modest link"},"interpretation":"An elasticity of 0.05 means a 10% higher Brent average has, on average, been followed within 12 months by an index about 0.5% higher than otherwise, holding the exchange rate and season constant.","validation":"Fuel series with a known oil link (UK diesel, gas oil, sterling crude import prices, jet fuel, CPI fuels) are run through the same model to show the method detects pass-through where it exists.","determinism":"Standard-library Python; no random numbers; inputs are the frozen JSON files in data/research/oil-it-2026. Re-running produces identical outputs.","definitions":{"trendPctPerYear":"Trailing trend, as a true percentage a year: (exp(12 x g) - 1) x 100 for monthly series and (exp(4 x g) - 1) x 100 for quarterly series, where g is the average log change per period over the 24 months (8 quarters) to the baseline. Used in episodes[].responses[].trendPctPerYear, now2026[].trailingTrendPctPerYear and the episodes CSV column trailing_trend_pct_per_year.","excess":"Excess = actual % change minus the % change implied by continuing the trailing trend: (exp(g x h) - 1) x 100.","residualRho1":"Pearson correlation of consecutive residuals (e_t, e_t-1) of the main-sample regression, matched on time so gaps are respected.","largestMoveSince":"Compares the move from the baseline to the latest period with every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or began before the baseline. type \"since\" gives the most recent other window with a move at least as large in the same direction; \"largest-in-series\" means none; seriesRecord gives the largest window; largestEndingBefore2025/2026 give the largest windows that ended before those years.","threeMonthAverage":"Percentage change between the three-month average ending in the baseline month and the three-month average ending in the latest month, with the same windows in the three previous years (endpoint-robust measure for volatile indices).","pctPer10pctBrent":"(1.1 ^ elasticity - 1) x 100: the index move associated with a 10% higher Brent average over 12 months.","airShareBounds":"Air share of verified-mode value, bounded below by air / total value and above by (air + unverified) / total value."},"formatting":"Numbers quoted in text are formatted once from unrounded values; stored fields are rounded for display only."},"context":{"brentWorldBankMonthly":{"feb2026":71.1,"dec2025":62.7,"peakMonth":"2026-04","peak":120.4,"latestMonth":"2026-08","latest":90.9,"pctFeb2026ToLatest":27.8481,"marchRiseOnFebruaryPct":45.8509,"marchRiseLargestSince":"1990-08","measure":"monthly average of daily spot prices, US$/bbl (World Bank Pink Sheet, CC BY 4.0). This is the published and charted Brent series."},"brentEIASpotSingleFacts":{"label":"EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution pending EIA confirmation","series":"Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA)","facts":[{"fact":"Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA): 2026 daily high of $138.21 on 2026-04-07.","date":"2026-04-07","source":"U.S. EIA, Spot Prices (release of 16 Sep 2026); upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG)"},{"fact":"Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA): $130.80 on 2026-09-15, the latest daily value at retrieval.","date":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. EIA, Spot Prices (release of 16 Sep 2026); upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG)"}],"note":"Single dated facts only; the EIA spot series is not charted and not included in the CSV files."},"brentFuturesSingleFact":{"fact":"CNBC reported the November Brent futures contract at $104.28 on 17 September 2026.","measure":"front-month futures (as reported by CNBC)","date":"2026-09-17","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html"},"jetFuelEIAPctOnly":{"series":"US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price FOB (EIA)","label":"EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution pending EIA confirmation","monthlyPeakMonth":"2026-05","monthlyPeakPctVsFeb2026":74.31,"latestMonth":"2026-08","latestMonthPctVsFeb2026":64.63,"latestDailyPctVs27Feb2026":93.78,"latestDailyDate":"2026-09-15","note":"Percentage changes only; price levels are withheld because EIA names Refinitiv (LSEG) as the upstream source."},"ukRoadFuelWeekly":{"petrol":{"latestDate":"2026-09-14","latest":168.14,"highestSince":"2022-09-05","highestSinceValue":168.93,"preConflictDate":"2026-02-23","preConflict":131.71,"pctVsPreConflict":27.65925138561991},"diesel":{"latestDate":"2026-09-14","latest":190.72,"highestSince":"2026-04-20","highestSinceValue":191.24,"preConflictDate":"2026-02-23","preConflict":141.46,"pctVsPreConflict":34.82256468259577},"unit":"pence per litre (incl. duty and VAT)","source":"DESNZ, Weekly road fuel prices (updated 15 Sep 2026). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0."},"gbGasSAP":{"baseline_Feb2026":2.733,"peakSinceMar2026":{"date":"2026-08","value":5.159},"latest":{"date":"2026-08","value":5.159},"pct_peak_vs_Feb2026":88.76692279546286,"pct_latest_vs_Feb2026":88.76692279546286,"peak_lastHigherOrEqual":{"date":"2023-01","value":5.41},"historic_peak2022":{"date":"2022-08","value":12.883},"monthly2025to2026":[{"date":"2025-01","value":4.222},{"date":"2025-02","value":4.265},{"date":"2025-03","value":3.476},{"date":"2025-04","value":2.917},{"date":"2025-05","value":2.843},{"date":"2025-06","value":2.972},{"date":"2025-07","value":2.769},{"date":"2025-08","value":2.712},{"date":"2025-09","value":2.716},{"date":"2025-10","value":2.684},{"date":"2025-11","value":2.561},{"date":"2025-12","value":2.449},{"date":"2026-01","value":3.064},{"date":"2026-02","value":2.733},{"date":"2026-03","value":4.507},{"date":"2026-04","value":3.883},{"date":"2026-05","value":4.037},{"date":"2026-06","value":3.755},{"date":"2026-07","value":4.416},{"date":"2026-08","value":5.159}]},"gbElectricitySystemPrice":{"baseline_Feb2026":7.953,"peakSinceMar2026":{"date":"2026-08","value":13.093},"latest":{"date":"2026-08","value":13.093},"pct_peak_vs_Feb2026":64.62969948447126,"pct_latest_vs_Feb2026":64.62969948447126,"peak_lastHigherOrEqual":{"date":"2023-02","value":13.625},"historic_peak2022":{"date":"2022-08","value":34.375},"monthly2025to2026":[{"date":"2025-01","value":12.127},{"date":"2025-02","value":10.172},{"date":"2025-03","value":8.795},{"date":"2025-04","value":7.502},{"date":"2025-05","value":6.944},{"date":"2025-06","value":6.944},{"date":"2025-07","value":7.922},{"date":"2025-08","value":7.134},{"date":"2025-09","value":6.463},{"date":"2025-10","value":7.619},{"date":"2025-11","value":7.613},{"date":"2025-12","value":7.548},{"date":"2026-01","value":9.917},{"date":"2026-02","value":7.953},{"date":"2026-03","value":9.519},{"date":"2026-04","value":8.32},{"date":"2026-05","value":10.314},{"date":"2026-06","value":9.761},{"date":"2026-07","value":10.622},{"date":"2026-08","value":13.093}]},"ttf":{"baseline_Feb2026":11.24,"peakSinceMar2026":{"date":"2026-08","value":21.11},"latest":{"date":"2026-08","value":21.11},"pct_peak_vs_Feb2026":87.81138790035585,"pct_latest_vs_Feb2026":87.81138790035585,"peak_lastHigherOrEqual":{"date":"2022-12","value":36.04},"historic_peak2022":{"date":"2022-08","value":70.04},"monthly2025to2026":[{"date":"2025-01","value":14.66},{"date":"2025-02","value":15.34},{"date":"2025-03","value":13.24},{"date":"2025-04","value":11.59},{"date":"2025-05","value":11.66},{"date":"2025-06","value":12.37},{"date":"2025-07","value":11.62},{"date":"2025-08","value":11.15},{"date":"2025-09","value":11.12},{"date":"2025-10","value":10.89},{"date":"2025-11","value":10.42},{"date":"2025-12","value":9.48},{"date":"2026-01","value":11.76},{"date":"2026-02","value":11.24},{"date":"2026-03","value":17.91},{"date":"2026-04","value":15.41},{"date":"2026-05","value":16.17},{"date":"2026-06","value":15.17},{"date":"2026-07","value":18.06},{"date":"2026-08","value":21.11}]},"measureWarning":"Brent figures differ by measure: the World Bank monthly average (the series this study analyses and charts), the Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA, daily; upstream Refinitiv) and futures settlements reported in the news are not interchangeable. On 15 Sep 2026 the EIA daily spot price was $130.80, while CNBC reported November futures at $104.28 on 17 Sep. EIA spot values are quoted only as single dated facts."},"sources":{"dataSeries":[{"publisher":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System","licences":["Public domain: information on the Board website may be copied and distributed without permission; cite the Board as source"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/disclaimer.htm"],"seriesCount":2},{"publisher":"Department for Energy Security and Net Zero","licences":["Open Government Licence v3.0"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"],"seriesCount":13},{"publisher":"Derived by Servnet from HMRC OTS","licences":["Open Government Licence v3.0"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"],"seriesCount":3},{"publisher":"Derived by Servnet from METI Petroleum Statistics","licences":["Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.meti.go.jp/main/rules.html"],"seriesCount":1},{"publisher":"Derived by Servnet from Taiwan Energy Administration data","licences":["Open Government Data License, version 1.0 (Taiwan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution required"],"licenceUrls":["https://data.gov.tw/license"],"seriesCount":1},{"publisher":"Elexon Limited","licences":["BMRS open data licence (Elexon): worldwide, royalty-free, perpetual, non-exclusive; commercial use permitted with attribution"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.elexon.co.uk/bsc/data/balancing-mechanism-reporting-agent/copyright-licence-bmrs-data/"],"seriesCount":1},{"publisher":"Energy Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs","licences":["Open Government Data License, version 1.0 (Taiwan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution required"],"licenceUrls":["https://data.gov.tw/license"],"seriesCount":8},{"publisher":"European Central Bank","licences":["ESCB policy on reuse of statistics: free reuse including commercial, provided the source is quoted (\"Source: ECB statistics\") and the statistics are not modified"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_statistics/governance_and_quality_framework/html/usage_policy.en.html"],"seriesCount":1},{"publisher":"Eurostat","licences":["Eurostat copyright notice: free re-use (commercial and non-commercial) with source acknowledged; editorial content CC BY 4.0 (Commission Decision 2011/833/EU)","Eurostat reuse policy: free reuse with acknowledgement (CC BY 4.0)","Eurostat reuse policy: free reuse with source acknowledgement (Commission Decision 2011/833/EU; CC BY 4.0)"],"licenceUrls":["https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/help/copyright-notice"],"seriesCount":10},{"publisher":"HM Revenue & Customs","licences":["Open Government Licence v3.0"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"],"seriesCount":7},{"publisher":"Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry","licences":["Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.meti.go.jp/main/rules.html"],"seriesCount":3},{"publisher":"Office for National Statistics","licences":["Open Government Licence v3.0","Open Government Licence v3.0 for the ONS dataset; underlying BMRS data under the Elexon BMRS open data licence (attribution required)","Open Government Licence v3.0 (ONS dataset; source acknowledged as National Gas Transmission)"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"],"seriesCount":65},{"publisher":"Servnet calculation from HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk datasets","licences":["Open Government Licence v3.0"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"],"seriesCount":11},{"publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","licences":["U.S. Government work - public domain (EIA copyright and reuse policy); acknowledgement requested"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"],"seriesCount":1},{"publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement","licences":["Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."],"licenceUrls":["https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"],"seriesCount":8},{"publisher":"US Bureau of Labor Statistics","licences":["Public domain (US federal government work); BLS asks to be cited as source","US federal government work, public domain (BLS asks for source citation)"],"licenceUrls":["https://www.bls.gov/opub/copyright-information.htm"],"seriesCount":27},{"publisher":"World Bank, Prospects Group","licences":["Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)"],"licenceUrls":["https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses?fragment=cc"],"seriesCount":6}],"factOnlySources":[{"name":"U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR Certified Enterprise Servers","use":"measured idle power and PSU ratings (running-cost model)","url":"https://data.energystar.gov/d/qifb-fcj2","licence":"Public domain (EPA Data License)","licenceUrl":"https://edg.epa.gov/EPA_Data_License.html"},{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","use":"helium and aluminium production shares (exposure)","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/","licence":"Public domain; credit USGS"},{"name":"Uptime Institute","use":"two cited PUE figures (2023) from one free article, and one survey statement","licence":"Copyright Uptime Institute; single facts cited with attribution, paraphrased","url":"https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/large-data-centers-are-mostly-more-efficient-analysis-confirms/"},{"name":"TrendForce","use":"two reported memory-price outcomes (26 Feb 2026 and 1 Jun 2026 press releases), one number each; no forecasts","licence":"Proprietary (TrendForce Terms of Service); site name and page URL cited; no data reproduced"},{"name":"Drewry","use":"one dated World Container Index composite value (17 Sep 2026)","licence":"All rights reserved; single fact cited, no series, lanes or ratios"},{"name":"Xeneta","use":"one dated global air-cargo spot rate and its year-on-year change (4 Sep 2026 release)","licence":"Proprietary; single fact cited"},{"name":"JMIC / UKMTO advisories","use":"Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transit statements","licence":"Reuse licence unconfirmed; facts cited only, documents not redistributed"},{"name":"Lloyd's Market Association / IUA Joint War Committee","use":"war-risk listed-area facts","licence":"Facts cited only; LMA JWC page linked"},{"name":"AWS Health Dashboard, QatarEnergy, Alba, EGA, Taiwan MOEA, METI","use":"dated facts on Gulf cloud regions, LNG, helium and aluminium","licence":"Company/government pages; facts paraphrased with attribution; raw copies not redistributed"},{"name":"Company filings (SEC EDGAR: Micron, HP Inc., HPE, Dell, Cisco, Supermicro) and vendor newsrooms","use":"confounder facts","licence":"Public filings; facts paraphrased"},{"name":"News organisations (BBC, CNBC, NPR, CBS, PBS/AP, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, trade press)","use":"timeline events (linked as publisher and date, paraphrased; never reproduced)","licence":"Publisher terms; several restrict automated or AI reuse, so the page links and paraphrases only"}],"attributionLines":["Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (ONS, DESNZ, HMRC). https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/","Contains BMRS data © Elexon Limited copyright and database right 2026. Licence: https://www.elexon.co.uk/bsc/data/balancing-mechanism-reporting-agent/copyright-licence-bmrs-data/. Anyone who re-uses or sub-licenses these values must keep this attribution statement and require any further sub-licensees to do the same (Elexon BMRS licence).","ONS System Average Price of gas: Source: National Gas Transmission.","World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Changes: none (values as published).","Source: Eurostat (datasets prc_hicp_minr, sts_sepp_q, nrg_pc_205; accessed 19 Sep 2026). Values unmodified. Eurostat has no responsibility for the results or conclusions drawn from these data, or for any changes made to them by Servnet. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/help/copyright-notice","Source: ECB statistics. Values are unmodified and may not be modified.","Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10); U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR; U.S. Geological Survey (all public domain).","Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026; EIA analysis based on Vortexa); Electric Power Monthly (24 Aug 2026); Spot Prices (16 Sep 2026; analysis only, upstream Refinitiv).","出典: 石油統計 (経済産業省) (https://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/tyo/sekiyuka/), processed by Servnet (monthly kl volumes combined from three issues of the confirmed time-series table; Middle East shares calculated by Servnet); the processed figures are not published by the Government of Japan in this form. Public Data License 1.0.","Energy Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs (經濟部能源署), 2026, Monthly Data on Crude Oil Import Sources (原油進口來源月資料), data.gov.tw dataset 161212, version as retrieved 19 Sep 2026. The Open Data is made available to the public under the Open Government Data License, User can make use of it when complying to the condition and obligation of its terms. Open Government Data License: https://data.gov.tw/license","Korea National Oil Corporation, \"Domestic crude oil imports by country\", Korea Public Data Portal dataset 15054606 (https://www.data.go.kr/data/15054606/fileData.do); exposure fact only."],"sourceLabelRule":"Sources are shown as publisher and date; URLs are used only as link targets."},"timeline":[{"date":"2025-02-04","event":"The US President signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2), restoring a 'maximum pressure' sanctions policy on Iran that directs the Treasury and State Department to drive Iran's oil exports towards zero.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"The White House","date":"2025-02-04","label":"The White House, 4 Feb 2025","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/national-security-presidential-memorandum-nspm-2/"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-02-04","label":"CNBC, 4 Feb 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/trump-reimposes-maximum-pressure-on-iran-aims-to-drive-oil-exports-to-zero.html"},{"publisher":"Steptoe","date":"2025-02-27","label":"Steptoe, 27 Feb 2025","url":"https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/international-compliance-blog/president-trump-renews-maximum-pressure-campaign-on-iran.html","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Implemented through repeated OFAC designation rounds against tankers, traders and refiners during 2025-2026 (see OFAC Recent Actions)."},{"date":"2025-03-20","event":"US Treasury (OFAC) designated a China-based independent 'teapot' refinery, Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical, for buying Iranian crude - the first US designation of a teapot refinery - alongside related entities and tankers.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Department of State","date":"2025-03-20","label":"US Department of State, 20 Mar 2025","url":"https://www.state.gov/sanctioning-entities-purchasing-and-transporting-iranian-oil-to-further-impose-maximum-pressure-on-iran"},{"publisher":"Lloyd's List","date":"2025-03-20","label":"Lloyd's List, 20 Mar 2025","url":"https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1152936/Maximum-pressure-ramps-up-as-Ofac-sanctions-Chinese-teapot-refinery"},{"publisher":"Kpler blog","date":"2025-03-26","label":"Kpler blog, 26 Mar 2025","url":"https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-sanctions-first-chinese-teapot-over-iranian-oil-trade","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The State Department release announced the designations; Lloyd's List reported it as the first against a Chinese independent refinery."},{"date":"2025-04-03","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise output by 411,000 b/d in May 2025 (three monthly increments at once), accelerating the unwinding of their 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts that began in April 2025.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2025-04-03","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 3 Apr 2025","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/557-03-april-2025.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-04-03","label":"CNBC, 3 Apr 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/eight-opec-producers-accelerate-crude-oil-output-hikes-pushing-oil-prices-down-6percent-.html"},{"publisher":"Saudi Gazette","date":"2025-04-03","label":"Saudi Gazette, 3 Apr 2025","url":"https://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/650635/SAUDI-ARABIA/OPEC+-countries-agree-to-ramp-up-output-by-411000-bpd-in-May","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"EIA described crude oil prices as falling in 2025 amid oversupply."},{"date":"2025-06-13","event":"Israel began air strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel. This was the start of the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict (13-24 June 2025).","category":"military","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2025-08-06","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65884"},{"publisher":"Israel Defense Forces","date":"2025-06-13","label":"Israel Defense Forces, 13 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/israel-at-war/briefings-by-idf-spokesperson-bg-effie-defrin/june-25-press-briefings/press-briefing-by-idf-spokesperson-bg-effie-defrin-june-13-2025"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2025-06-13","label":"NPR, 13 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.npr.org/2025/06/13/nx-s1-5432424/oil-prices-israel-iran"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2025-06-13","label":"Al Jazeera, 13 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/13/sounds-of-explosions-heard-in-irans-capital-tehran"}],"notes":"Pre-escalation reference: the IEA says an average of 20 million b/d of crude and products moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, about 25% of seaborne oil trade (IEA, 11 Mar 2026).","brentFact":{"fact":"EIA reported that Brent rose from $69/b on 12 June to $79/b on 19 June 2025.","measure":"as stated by EIA (measure not specified)","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2025-06-14","event":"Iranian media reported Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities, the first in the conflict, including a processing phase of the South Pars gas field, the Fajr Jam gas plant and the Shahran fuel depot in Tehran; Iran partially suspended production at South Pars.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2025-06-15","label":"Al Jazeera, 15 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/15/which-iranian-oil-and-gas-fields-has-israel-hit-and-why-do-they-matter"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-06-15","label":"CNBC, 15 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/15/oil-prices-jump-after-israel-strikes-energy-facilities-in-iran.html"},{"publisher":"The Times of Israel","date":"2025-06-14","label":"The Times of Israel, 14 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gas-production-suspended-at-iranian-facility-attacked-by-israel-iranian-media-says/","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"South Pars output mainly supplies Iran's domestic gas market (Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2025-06-21","event":"US forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan) on the evening of 21 June US Eastern time (early 22 June in Iran), the US Department of Defense said.","category":"military","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CBS News","date":"2025-06-22","label":"CBS News, 22 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pentagon-briefing-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites/"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2025-08-06","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65884"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2025-06-22","label":"PBS NewsHour, 22 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-u-s-stealth-bombers-struck-irans-nuclear-sites-without-detection","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-06-22","label":"CNBC, 22 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/oil-prices-jump-after-us-strikes-on-iran-raise-fears-of-supply-disruption.html","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"EIA dates the US strikes 21 June."},{"date":"2025-06-22","event":"Iranian state media reported that Iran's parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz; the final decision rested with the Supreme National Security Council, and the strait was not closed.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-06-23","label":"CNBC, 23 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/irans-parliament-approves-blocking-strait-of-hormuz.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2025-06-23","label":"Al Jazeera, 23 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/23/can-iran-really-shut-down-the-strait-of-hormuz"}],"notes":"CNBC noted it could not independently verify the Press TV report. Shipping groups reduced exposure to the strait (CNBC, 23 Jun 2025)."},{"date":"2025-06-23","event":"Iran fired missiles at the US Al Udeid air base in Qatar. Qatar said its air defences intercepted the missiles, although a Qatari military officer told AP that one of the 19 missiles fired was not intercepted and hit the base. Oil prices fell on 23-24 June (CNBC).","category":"military","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-06-23","label":"CNBC, 23 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/oil-prices-jump-after-us-strikes-on-iran-raise-fears-of-supply-disruption.html"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2025-08-06","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65884"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2025-06-23","label":"PBS NewsHour, 23 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-know-about-the-u-s-military-base-that-iran-attacked-in-qatar","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2025-06-24","event":"A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect, ending the June 2025 conflict.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2025-06-24","label":"Al Jazeera, 24 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/24/fragile-iran-israel-ceasefire-calms-oil-markets"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2025-08-06","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65884"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-02-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2025-06-24","label":"PBS NewsHour, 24 Jun 2025","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-iran-ceasefire-is-in-effect-trump-says","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The daily Europe Brent spot price (EIA) fell back below its 12 June level by 24 June, but the World Bank monthly average stayed above May's in June and July 2025 (May $64.2, June $71.5, July $71.0).","brentFact":{"fact":"EIA reported that Brent ended 2Q25 at $68/b.","measure":"as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 6 Aug 2025","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2025-08-03","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed a 547,000 b/d increase for September 2025, completing the early unwinding of their 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2025-08-03","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 3 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/572-03-august-2025.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-08-03","label":"CNBC, 3 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/03/opec-makes-another-large-oil-output-hike-in-market-share-push-.html"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2025-08-03","label":"The National, 3 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/08/03/opec-agrees-to-raise-oil-output-for-september/","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2025-08-28","event":"France, Germany and the UK (E3) triggered the UN 'snapback' mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, starting a 30-day process to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"House of Commons Library","date":"2025","label":"House of Commons Library, 2025","url":"https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10330/"},{"publisher":"German Federal Foreign Office","date":"2025-09-28","label":"German Federal Foreign Office, 28 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2737116-2737116"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-02-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2025-08-28","label":"PBS NewsHour, 28 Aug 2025","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/european-nations-start-process-to-impose-a-snapback-of-iran-nuclear-sanctions-at-un","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"US Department of State","date":"2025-09-27","label":"US Department of State, 27 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/09/completion-of-un-sanctions-snapback-on-iran","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2025-09-07","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed a 137,000 b/d increase for October 2025, starting to unwind a second tranche of voluntary cuts (1.65 million b/d, announced April 2023).","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2025-09-07","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 7 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/243573-07-september-2025.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-09-07","label":"CNBC, 7 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/opec-agrees-to-oil-output-increase-in-october.html"},{"publisher":"Kpler blog","date":"2025-09-09","label":"Kpler blog, 9 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.kpler.com/blog/opec-continues-path-towards-unwinding-cuts","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2025-09-27","event":"UN sanctions on Iran lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal were reinstated (from 20:00 EDT on 27 September / 00:00 GMT on 28 September 2025) after the snapback process concluded; the EU reimposed its related measures on 29 September.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Department of State","date":"2025-09","label":"US Department of State, Sep 2025","url":"https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/09/completion-of-un-sanctions-snapback-on-iran"},{"publisher":"E3 joint statement","date":"2025-09-28","label":"E3 joint statement, 28 Sep 2025","url":"https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/france-germany-and-uk-welcome-reimposition-iran-sanctions"},{"publisher":"Council of the EU","date":"2025-09-29","label":"Council of the EU, 29 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/29/iran-sanctions-snapback-council-reimposes-restrictive-measures/"},{"publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"2025","label":"Congressional Research Service, 2025","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11583"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2025-09-27","label":"PBS NewsHour, 27 Sep 2025","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-know-about-the-un-reimposing-snapback-sanctions-over-irans-nuclear-program","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"Steptoe","date":"2025-10-07","label":"Steptoe, 7 Oct 2025","url":"https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/international-compliance-blog/the-eu-reimposes-nuclear-related-sanctions-on-iran.html","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"Mayer Brown","date":"2025-10-03","label":"Mayer Brown, 3 Oct 2025","url":"https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/10/eu-reintroduces-sanctions-against-iran-following-un-snapback","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"EU: the Council reimposed its measures on 29 September; asset-freeze designations took effect on 29 September and sectoral measures, including the ban on buying and transporting Iranian crude, on 30 September (Mayer Brown)."},{"date":"2025-11-02","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed a 137,000 b/d increase for December 2025 and paused further increments for January-March 2026, citing seasonality.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2025-11-02","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 2 Nov 2025","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/579-02-november-2025.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-11-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Nov 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/02/opec-reportedly-set-to-agree-another-modest-oil-output-increase.html"}],"notes":"CNBC: OPEC+ had raised output targets by about 2.9 million b/d since April 2025."},{"date":"2025-11-30","event":"The full OPEC+ ministerial meeting kept group-wide production levels for 2026 unchanged and approved a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity (for setting 2027 baselines).","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2025-11-30","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 30 Nov 2025","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/243582-30-november-2025.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2025-11-30","label":"CNBC, 30 Nov 2025","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/30/opec-holds-2026-group-wide-oil-output-steady-agrees-capacity-mechanism.html"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2025-11-30","label":"The National, 30 Nov 2025","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/11/30/opec-agrees-to-keep-output-levels-unchanged/","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-01-12","event":"The US President announced that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% US tariff on its trade with the United States, with immediate effect. No implementing order or Federal Register notice had been published at the time.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-01-12","label":"CNBC, 12 Jan 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/trump-tariffs-iran-business.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-01-12","label":"Al Jazeera, 12 Jan 2026","url":"https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/12/trump-says-any-country-doing-business-with-iran-will-face-25-percent-tariff"},{"publisher":"CNN Business","date":"2026-01-12","label":"CNN Business, 12 Jan 2026","url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/12/business/tariffs-trump-iran"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-01-12","label":"PBS NewsHour, 12 Jan 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-trade-partners-will-face-25-tariffs-from-u-s-trump-says","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"No implementing order was found in the sources reviewed."},{"date":"2026-02-27","event":"Last trading day before the conflict. EIA said front-month Brent futures rose from $61/b to $72/b over January-February 2026 in response to the increasing risk of conflict in the Middle East. There was a US military build-up near Iran, and Oman-mediated US-Iran nuclear talks (Muscat on 6 February; Geneva on 17 and 26 February) ended without an agreement.","category":"market","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-01","label":"CNBC, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/opec-to-raise-oil-output-slightly-even-as-iran-war-disrupts-shipments.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-02-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-02-06","label":"NPR, 6 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/02/06/g-s1-108952/iran-and-us-set-for-talks-in-oman-over-nuclear-program","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-02-26","label":"PBS NewsHour, 26 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/as-risk-of-war-looms-u-s-iran-nuclear-talks-wrap-with-no-deal-announced","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Baseline note: February 2026 is the last full pre-conflict month; EIA attributes the January-February rise to conflict risk. December 2025 (World Bank monthly average $62.7) is used as a sensitivity baseline.","brentFact":{"fact":"EIA said front-month Brent futures rose from $61/b to $72/b over January-February 2026.","measure":"front-month futures, as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-02-28","event":"The United States and Israel began air strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on Israel and on sites in Gulf states including Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.","category":"military","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-03-11","label":"International Energy Agency, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-02-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-21","label":"CNBC, 21 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/oil-price-iran-war-middle-east.html"}],"notes":"Conflict start date used by the IEA (\"the conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026\") and EIA. 28 February 2026 was a Saturday, so markets were closed."},{"date":"2026-02-28","event":"Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely stopped after Iranian radio warnings to shipping and attacks on vessels (JMIC; EIA). Major container lines suspended Hormuz transits and Gulf services.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424"},{"publisher":"Joint Maritime Information Center","date":"2026-03-01","label":"Joint Maritime Information Center, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-003---001---jmic-advisory-note-28_feb_2026_final.pdf"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-06","label":"CNBC, 6 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-war-shipping-maersk-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-gulf.html"},{"publisher":"Maersk","date":"2026-03-02","label":"Maersk, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/03/02/middle-east-operational-update-2"},{"publisher":"Maersk advisory","date":"2026-03-01","label":"Maersk advisory, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/03/01/me11-mecl-rerouting-cape-of-good-hope-march","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-03-11","label":"International Energy Agency, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"JMIC put the historical average at about 138 vessel transits a day and said AIS review suggested transits may have fallen to about 10 a day, roughly 93% fewer (JMIC Advisory Note 001-26, Update 003). On 6 March Maersk suspended its FM1 (Far East-Middle East) and ME11 (Middle East-Europe) services; carriers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. IT relevance: sea freight for Gulf-routed and Asia-Europe cargo."},{"date":"2026-02-28","event":"At least eight countries, including Iran, Israel, Jordan and Qatar, closed their airspace and Gulf carriers suspended flights, cutting air-cargo capacity through the Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi hubs.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-02-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/airspace-closed-airlines-halt-flights-as-us-israel-attack-iran-responds"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-02-28","label":"CNBC, 28 Feb 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/28/airspace-closure-middle-east-flights-us-strikes.html"},{"publisher":"Maersk","date":"2026-03-02","label":"Maersk, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/03/02/middle-east-operational-update-2"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-01","label":"PBS NewsHour, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hundreds-of-thousands-of-travelers-stranded-following-u-s-israel-attacks-on-iran","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Category note: air freight, grouped under shipping. Maersk warned of delays and longer transit times for air volumes through the region. IT relevance: high-value electronics often move by air through Gulf hubs."},{"date":"2026-03-01","event":"An AWS availability zone (mec1-az2) in the Middle East (UAE) region, me-central-1, went offline after, in AWS's words, 'objects' struck the data centre, causing sparks and fire; the fire service cut power to the facility.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"DatacenterDynamics","date":"2026-03-01","label":"DatacenterDynamics, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/aws-uae-outage-after-objects-struck-the-data-center-cause-fire-amid-iran-attacks/"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/amazon-says-drone-strikes-damaged-3-facilities-in-uae-and-bahrain.html"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2026-03-03","label":"The National, 3 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2026/03/03/drone-strikes-damage-amazon-data-centres-in-uae-and-bahrain-disrupting-services/","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-09-16","label":"The Register, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/09/16/aws-says-wartime-damage-means-some-middle-east-cloud-resources-are-gone-for-good/5296830","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"A second UAE zone (mec1-az3) was later significantly impaired. AWS advised customers to move S3 data ingest to other regions."},{"date":"2026-03-01","event":"The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) raised its regional maritime threat level from \"Severe\" to \"Critical\". Some marine insurers issued notices cancelling specific Gulf war-risk covers, effective 72 hours after 00:00 GMT on 1 March. JMIC cites Steamship Mutual, whose notice covered certain charterers' covers and war-risk extensions. \"Buy-back\" cover was offered at higher prices. The IMO Secretary-General issued a statement on the Strait of Hormuz.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"JMIC","date":"2026-03-01","label":"JMIC, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/jmic-advisory-note-update_01_01_mar_2026.pdf"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-03","label":"Al Jazeera, 3 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/maritime-insurers-cancel-war-risk-cover-in-gulf-will-it-spike-energy-cost"},{"publisher":"Lloyd's List","date":"2026-03","label":"Lloyd's List, Mar 2026","url":"https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156515/No-PI-clubs-have-not-cancelled-war-risk-cover"},{"publisher":"International Maritime Organization","date":"2026-03-01","label":"International Maritime Organization, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/statement-on-the-strait-of-hormuz.aspx"}],"notes":"Lloyd's List clarified that the P&I club notices affected specific war-risk extensions, not all P&I cover. JMIC also reported heavy GNSS/GPS interference in the area. Al Jazeera reported war-risk premiums rising to as much as 1% of a ship's value, from about 0.2% the week before."},{"date":"2026-03-01","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to resume unwinding their 1.65 million b/d voluntary cuts, with a 206,000 b/d increase for April 2026.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-03-01","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/593-1-march-2026.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-01","label":"CNBC, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/opec-to-raise-oil-output-slightly-even-as-iran-war-disrupts-shipments.html"}],"notes":"Analysts cited by CNBC said the group had little spare capacity and that Gulf members would struggle to export extra oil while navigation through Hormuz was disrupted."},{"date":"2026-03-01","event":"Maersk paused future trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and suspended all its vessel crossings of the Strait of Hormuz. Its ME11 and MECL services were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.","category":"shipping","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Maersk customer advisory","date":"2026-03-01","label":"Maersk customer advisory, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/03/01/me11-mecl-rerouting-cape-of-good-hope-march"},{"publisher":"Yahoo Finance UK","date":"2026-03-01","label":"Yahoo Finance UK, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/maersk-pauses-sailings-suez-canal-143428075.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-28","label":"CNBC, 28 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/yemens-houthis-launch-israel-strike-the-first-of-the-iran-war.html"}],"notes":"IT relevance: Asia-Europe container cargo, including UK IT imports, moves via Suez and Bab el-Mandeb; the Cape of Good Hope route is longer. See the freight section for measured freight prices."},{"date":"2026-03-02","event":"A senior adviser to the IRGC commander said the Strait of Hormuz was closed and warned that vessels trying to cross would be attacked. JMIC noted that no recognised authority had declared a formal legal closure.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-02","label":"Al Jazeera, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz"},{"publisher":"JMIC","date":"2026-03-01","label":"JMIC, 1 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/jmic-advisory-note-update_01_01_mar_2026.pdf"},{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-03-11","label":"International Energy Agency, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-03-08","label":"NPR, 8 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741818/iran-israel-trump-oil-100","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"IEA topic page","date":"2026-09","label":"IEA topic page, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"IEA: in 2025 about 20 million b/d of crude and products (about 25% of seaborne oil trade) and about 20% of global LNG moved through the strait; by 11 March exports were below 10% of pre-conflict levels. JMIC put the historical average at about 138 transits a day."},{"date":"2026-03-02","event":"QatarEnergy stopped LNG and associated production after drone attacks on facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities. Saudi Aramco shut down some or all units of its Ras Tanura refinery as a precaution, after a fire that Saudi officials attributed to debris from two intercepted drones.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-02","label":"Al Jazeera, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/qatarenergy-worlds-largest-lng-firm-halts-production-after-iran-attacks"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/qatars-state-owned-energy-company-halts-lng-production-after-iran-drone-attacks.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-03","label":"Al Jazeera, 3 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/is-iran-expanding-attacks-to-target-energy-and-civilian-sites-in-the-gulf"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-03-06","label":"NPR, 6 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/06/nx-s1-5736593/middle-east-iran-energy-lng"},{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-09","label":"International Energy Agency, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets"}],"notes":"NPR reported on 6 March that refineries in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been hit within a week, and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on Wednesday 4 March. Iranian officials denied targeting QatarEnergy (Al Jazeera). The IEA topic page (September 2026) says Ras Laffan has been offline since the 2 March attack."},{"date":"2026-03-02","event":"AWS confirmed that drone strikes had directly hit two of its UAE data centres and that a drone strike nearby had damaged a facility in its Bahrain region (me-south-1), causing structural damage, power disruption and water damage from fire suppression. Banking, payments and consumer apps in the region reported outages.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/amazon-says-drone-strikes-damaged-3-facilities-in-uae-and-bahrain.html"},{"publisher":"CBS News","date":"2026-03-02","label":"CBS News, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-drone-strike-aws-data-center-uae-bahrain-iran/"},{"publisher":"DatacenterDynamics","date":"2026-03-02","label":"DatacenterDynamics, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/amazon-confirms-two-uae-data-centers-hit-by-drone-strikes-third-in-bahrain-damaged/"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2026-03-03","label":"The National, 3 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2026/03/03/drone-strikes-damage-amazon-data-centres-in-uae-and-bahrain-disrupting-services/"},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-07-21","label":"The Register, 21 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/07/21/iran-says-its-struck-offline-aws-facility-in-bahrain-again/5275762","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"AWS advised customers to back up data and consider migrating workloads to other regions. The National reported intermittent outages at several UAE banks' digital services on the same days, but said it was unclear whether AWS damage caused them. The Register (21 Jul) reported that AWS waived March 2026 usage charges in me-central-1."},{"date":"2026-03-02","event":"First trading day after the strikes began: oil and European gas prices rose.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-02","label":"Al Jazeera, 2 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/oil-prices-rise-sharply-after-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-21","label":"CNBC, 21 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/oil-price-iran-war-middle-east.html"}]},{"date":"2026-03-07","event":"Gulf producers began cutting crude output as storage filled and tankers could not load; Kuwait announced production cuts. On the same Saturday, strikes attributed to Israel were reported on Iranian oil storage and transfer facilities in Tehran and Alborz province, the first on Iran's oil infrastructure in this conflict.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-07","label":"CNBC, 7 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/07/kuwait-oil-cut-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html"},{"publisher":"IEA Oil Market Report, March 2026","date":"2026-03-12","label":"IEA Oil Market Report, March 2026, 12 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA press release","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA press release, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-09","label":"Al Jazeera, 9 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/9/oil-soars-past-100-a-barrel-amid-iran-war"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-03-08","label":"NPR, 8 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741818/iran-israel-trump-oil-100"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-09","label":"PBS NewsHour, 9 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/oil-prices-soar-to-levels-not-seen-in-years-as-war-in-iran-intensifies","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"IEA (12 Mar): Gulf crude output curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, plus about 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs; more than 3 mb/d of regional refining capacity shut. EIA (STEO, 7 Apr): March shut-ins of 7.5 million b/d across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. CNBC: Iraq had already cut about 1.5 mb/d because storage was full (Iraqi officials to Reuters)."},{"date":"2026-03-09","event":"Brent futures briefly traded above $119 a barrel in the session that opened on Sunday evening, 8 March, then fell back as G7 governments prepared to discuss a coordinated oil-stock release with the IEA. It was the first trade above $100 since 2022.","category":"market","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-09","label":"Al Jazeera, 9 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/9/oil-soars-past-100-a-barrel-amid-iran-war"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-03-08","label":"NPR, 8 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741818/iran-israel-trump-oil-100"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-08","label":"CNBC, 8 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/08/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-09","label":"PBS NewsHour, 9 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/oil-prices-soar-to-levels-not-seen-in-years-as-war-in-iran-intensifies","addedByCheck":true}],"originalDate":"2026-03-08","brentFact":{"fact":"Brent futures traded as high as $119.50 intraday on 9 March.","measure":"front-month futures, intraday (as reported by CNBC and PBS/AP)","source":"CNBC; PBS NewsHour (AP), 9 Mar 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-03-11","event":"The 32 IEA member countries unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks available: the largest collective action in IEA history and the sixth ever (after 1991, 2005, 2011 and twice in 2022). The UK committed 13.5 million barrels.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-03-11","label":"International Energy Agency, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict"},{"publisher":"UK Government","date":"2026-03-11","label":"UK Government, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-joins-iea-members-in-coordinated-oil-stock-release"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-11","label":"Al Jazeera, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/iea-proposes-release-of-400m-barrels-of-oil-from-strategic-reserves"},{"publisher":"IEA","date":"2026-03-15","label":"IEA, 15 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026"},{"publisher":"IEA","date":"2026-03-19","label":"IEA, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-confirms-member-country-contributions-to-collective-action-to-release-oil-stocks-in-response-to-middle-east-disruptions"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-11","label":"PBS NewsHour, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/iea-agrees-to-release-record-volume-of-emergency-oil-reserves-in-effort-to-calm-prices","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"IEA confirmed total pledges of 426 million barrels on 19 March (US 172.2m, Japan 79.8m, Germany 19.5m, UK 14.0m). GOV.UK gave the UK figure as 13.5m on 11 March, when the UK held 76.6m barrels in total. Asian members released stocks immediately; the Americas and Europe from late March. European contributions were mainly refined products."},{"date":"2026-03-11","event":"The US Department of Energy announced a 172 million barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, structured as an exchange, as the US share of the IEA action. EIA weekly data show SPR stocks first falling in the week ending 27 March.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"US Department of Energy","date":"2026-03-11","label":"US Department of Energy, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-04-30","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 30 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67625"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Weekly US Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Weekly US Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"EIA: 17.5 million barrels had been released by the week ending 24 April, when SPR stocks stood at 397.9 million barrels. EIA weekly SPR stocks: 289.73 million barrels on 21 Aug and 284.96 million on 11 Sep 2026, the lowest weekly level since 5 November 1982 (EIA, Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR, release of 16 Sep 2026)."},{"date":"2026-03-11","event":"In statements, the IRGC said US and Israeli-linked economic centres and banks in the region were targets. Tasnim, an agency linked to the IRGC, published a list of about 29 offices, data centres and research sites of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, IBM, Nvidia, Oracle and Palantir in Bahrain, Israel, Qatar and the UAE, named as targets.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-11","label":"Al Jazeera, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/iran-declares-us-israeli-economic-banking-interests-in-region-as-targets"},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-03-11","label":"The Register, 11 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/03/11/iran-plots-infrastructure-warfare-against-us-tech-giants/5223148"}],"notes":"The Register's report draws on Al Jazeera and Tasnim, so the two sources are not fully independent. Treat this as a stated threat, not an event causing damage."},{"date":"2026-03-12","event":"Brent futures closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022. In its March report the IEA said it was the largest disruption to oil supply in the market's history.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-12","label":"CNBC, 12 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/oil-prices-jump-iea-record-reserve-release-markets-doubt-relief.html"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424"},{"publisher":"IEA Oil Market Report, March 2026","date":"2026-03-12","label":"IEA Oil Market Report, March 2026, 12 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026"}],"brentFact":{"fact":"EIA said Brent surpassed $100/b on 12 March.","measure":"as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-03-12","event":"The US Treasury allowed, for 30 days, the delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude oil already loaded on tankers (OFAC General License 134, extended globally from an earlier India-only waiver). This was a supply-relief measure during the Hormuz disruption.","category":"policy","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-13","label":"PBS NewsHour, 13 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-eases-some-sanctions-on-russian-oil-but-crude-prices-remain-high"},{"publisher":"Baker McKenzie Sanctions Blog","date":"2026-04-02","label":"Baker McKenzie Sanctions Blog, 2 Apr 2026","url":"https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/ofac-issues-iran-related-general-license-authorizing-delivery-and-sale-of-iranian-origin-crude-oil-and-petroleum-products-and-amends-russia-related-general-license-134/"}],"notes":"Relevant to crude availability and prices in March-April 2026. Not a change to UK or EU sanctions on Russia."},{"date":"2026-03-16","event":"A drone strike was reported at the Fujairah Oil Industries Zone in the UAE, the second attack on the hub in about 48 hours (CNBC; Marine Insight). Oil loadings were suspended while damage was assessed. Fujairah is the export terminal of the Habshan-Fujairah (ADCOP) pipeline, the UAE's route for bypassing Hormuz.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-16","label":"CNBC, 16 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/uae-fujairah-oil-hub-drone-fire-iran-war-us-israel-middle-east.html"},{"publisher":"Marine Insight","date":"2026-03-16","label":"Marine Insight, 16 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/drone-attack-halts-oil-loadings-at-uaes-fujairah-port-after-fire-at-critical-energy-hub/"},{"publisher":"Bloomberg","date":"2026-03-14","label":"Bloomberg, 14 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/some-fujairah-oil-operations-suspended-after-drone-attack-fire"}],"notes":"CNBC: ADCOP is estimated to carry about 1.5 mb/d, with capacity close to 1.8 mb/d. A further attack on Fujairah was reported on 4 May (see that event)."},{"date":"2026-03-18","event":"Qatar said Iranian missile attacks on 18-19 March caused extensive damage at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG export complex; the attacks followed an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars field. QatarEnergy said LNG Trains 4 and 6 (12.8 Mt a year, about 17% of Qatar's LNG exports) were damaged, with repairs expected to take three to five years, and that one of the two trains at the Pearl GTL plant was expected to be offline for at least a year.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"QatarEnergy","date":"2026-03-19","label":"QatarEnergy, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3897"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-18","label":"Al Jazeera, 18 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/qatar-says-iran-missile-attack-sparks-fire-causes-damage-at-gas-facility"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-18","label":"CNBC, 18 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/iran-war-qatar-ras-laffan-natural-gas-lng.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-19","label":"CNBC, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/iran-attack-qatar-lng-capacity.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-18","label":"Al Jazeera, 18 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/oil-prices-surge-after-israeli-strike-on-iran-gasfield-irans-threats"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-19","label":"PBS NewsHour, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-intensifies-attacks-on-gulf-energy-sites-after-israel-struck-its-key-gas-field","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"QatarEnergy also listed associated output lost to the outage, including helium equal to about 14% of Qatar's helium exports and LPG equal to about 13% (QatarEnergy, 19 Mar 2026). Helium is used in semiconductor fabrication (USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026). See the 24 March event for the force-majeure declaration."},{"date":"2026-03-20","event":"OFAC issued General License U, authorising for a limited period the delivery and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil and products already loaded on vessels as of 20 March 2026. Treasury said this would bring about 140 million barrels to market.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-03-20","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 20 Mar 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260320_33"},{"publisher":"Baker McKenzie Sanctions Blog","date":"2026-03","label":"Baker McKenzie Sanctions Blog, Mar 2026","url":"https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/ofac-issues-iran-related-general-license-authorizing-delivery-and-sale-of-iranian-origin-crude-oil-and-petroleum-products-and-amends-russia-related-general-license-134/"},{"publisher":"Bloomberg","date":"2026-03-20","label":"Bloomberg, 20 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/us-treasury-allows-sale-of-some-iranian-oil-stranded-on-vessels"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-20","label":"CNBC, 20 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/20/us-issues-30-day-sanctions-waiver-for-sale-of-iranian-oil-at-sea.html","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"A temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, aimed at supply relief. GL U authorised transactions until 12:01 a.m. EDT on 19 April 2026 (Baker McKenzie). The Treasury Secretary said it would bring about 140 million barrels to market (CNBC)."},{"date":"2026-03-23","event":"Amazon confirmed that its AWS Bahrain region had been 'disrupted' by drone activity, the second disruption to its Gulf operations that month, and asked customers to keep migrating workloads to other regions.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-24","label":"Al Jazeera, 24 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/amazon-says-aws-bahrain-region-disrupted-following-drone-activity"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2026-03-24","label":"The National, 24 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2026/03/24/aws-bahrain-operations-disrupted-for-second-time-this-month-due-to-drone-attack/"},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-09-16","label":"The Register, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/09/16/aws-says-wartime-damage-means-some-middle-east-cloud-resources-are-gone-for-good/5296830","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"See the 1 April event. A further drone attack caused a fire at an AWS facility in Bahrain, and The Register (16 Sep) reports that a second Bahrain availability zone was disrupted in April, leaving the whole region unavailable."},{"date":"2026-03-24","event":"QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some long-term LNG supply contracts, including for buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China, because of the damage to two LNG trains at Ras Laffan.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-24","label":"Al Jazeera, 24 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-on-some-lng-contracts"},{"publisher":"The Peninsula","date":"2026-03-24","label":"The Peninsula, 24 Mar 2026","url":"https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/24/03/2026/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-on-some-lng-contracts"}],"notes":"Relevant to European (including UK) and Asian gas supply, and so to electricity costs. The QatarEnergy CEO had said force majeure on these contracts could last up to five years (CNBC/Reuters, 19 Mar)."},{"date":"2026-03-28","event":"Yemen's Houthis said they had launched missiles at Israel, their first direct involvement in the conflict, and said closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait was among their options.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-28","label":"CNBC, 28 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/yemens-houthis-launch-israel-strike-the-first-of-the-iran-war.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/yemens-houthis-claim-responsibility-for-a-missile-attack-on-israel-2"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-03-28","label":"PBS NewsHour, 28 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/a-houthi-missile-attack-on-israel-raises-concerns-about-red-sea-shipping-routes-being-blocked"}],"notes":"IT relevance: Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea gateway on the Asia-Europe container route used for UK IT imports."},{"date":"2026-03-28","event":"Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi was significantly damaged in missile and drone attacks. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) also reported an attack on its facility. The IRGC said it had targeted aluminium facilities in the UAE and Bahrain.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Emirates Global Aluminium","date":"2026-03-28","label":"Emirates Global Aluminium, 28 Mar 2026","url":"https://media.ega.ae/ega-al-taweelah-site-at-kezad-sustains-significant-damage/"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-03-29","label":"Al Jazeera, 29 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/irans-irgc-claim-attacks-on-uae-bahrain-facilities-linked-to-us-war"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-03-30","label":"CNBC, 30 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/iran-attacks-aluminum-producers-shockwaves-market-metals.html"}],"notes":"Category note: industrial metals infrastructure, grouped under energy-infrastructure. IT supply-chain relevance: aluminium is used in server chassis, racks and heat sinks."},{"date":"2026-03-31","event":"The Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 45.9% from February to March 2026, the largest one-month rise in that series since August 1990.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data","date":"2026-09-02","label":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data, 2 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA press release","date":"2026-04-07","label":"U.S. EIA press release, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php"}],"brentFact":{"fact":"EIA reported that Brent averaged $103/b in March 2026.","measure":"monthly average, as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, STEO press release, 7 Apr 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-03-31","event":"In a statement, the IRGC named 18 US technology and finance companies with Middle East operations as targets from 1 April, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, HP, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Dell and UAE AI firm G42.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-01","label":"CNBC, 1 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/iran-irgc-nvidia-appple-attack-threat.html"},{"publisher":"TIME","date":"2026-04-01","label":"TIME, 1 Apr 2026","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/04/01/iran-revolutionary-guard-corps-tech-apple-google-meta-microsoft-nvidia/"},{"publisher":"CBS News","date":"2026-04-01","label":"CBS News, 1 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-war-tehran-us-tech-companies-targets-middle-east-drones-cyberattacks/"}],"notes":"A stated threat, not a report of an attack. Relevant to IT vendors' Gulf offices, data centres and service continuity."},{"date":"2026-04-01","event":"Bahrain's interior minister confirmed a fire at a company facility after a drone attack; reports identified it as an AWS facility in the Bahrain region, me-south-1 (Network World; DatacenterDynamics, citing the Financial Times). On 2 April the AWS health page listed Bahrain services as impacted. AWS said on 15 September that a second Bahrain availability zone was disrupted in April.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Network World","date":"2026-04-02","label":"Network World, 2 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.networkworld.com/article/4153994/amazon-middle-east-datacenter-suffers-second-drone-hit-as-iran-steps-up-attacks.html"},{"publisher":"DatacenterDynamics","date":"2026-04","label":"DatacenterDynamics, Apr 2026","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/fire-at-aws-data-center-in-bahrain-after-iranian-attack-report/"},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-09-16","label":"The Register, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/09/16/aws-says-wartime-damage-means-some-middle-east-cloud-resources-are-gone-for-good/5296830"}],"notes":"Both contemporaneous reports draw on the Financial Times and Bahrain's interior minister. AWS did not publicly name the facility. This resolves the earlier gap about the April date."},{"date":"2026-04-02","event":"The IRGC claimed an attack on an Oracle data centre in Dubai. The Dubai Media Office first disputed the claim, then confirmed that shrapnel from an aerial interception hit the facade of the Oracle building in Dubai Internet City, causing limited damage.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"DatacenterDynamics","date":"2026-04","label":"DatacenterDynamics, Apr 2026","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/iran-attack-hits-an-oracle-data-center-in-dubai-causes-limited-damage/"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-04","label":"CNBC, 4 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/04/debris-from-interception-strikes-oracle-building-in-dubai-uae-says.html"}]},{"date":"2026-04-05","event":"Eight OPEC+ countries agreed a further 206,000 b/d quota increase for May 2026, while noting concern about attacks on energy infrastructure and saying restoration would be costly and slow.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-04-05","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 5 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1756597-5-april-2026.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-05","label":"Al Jazeera, 5 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/5/opec-agrees-to-hike-oil-output-warns-of-slow-recovery-after-attacks"}]},{"date":"2026-04-07","event":"The US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, announced on the evening of 7 April (US time) and effective 8 April. The US conditioned its pause on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign minister said safe passage would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iran's armed forces.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-04-07","label":"NPR, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-07","label":"CNBC, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-08","label":"PBS NewsHour, 8 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/oil-plunges-below-95-as-dow-surges-1100-following-iran-ceasefire-deal"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily)","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","addedByCheck":true}],"brentFact":{"fact":"The Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA) reached its 2026 daily high of $138.21 on 7 April.","measure":"EIA daily spot (EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv)","source":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-04-08","event":"Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said a strike hours after the ceasefire was declared damaged one of 11 pumping stations on its East-West crude pipeline, cutting throughput by about 700,000 b/d, and that attacks also cut about 300,000 b/d each of capacity at the Manifa and Khurais fields. On 12 April the ministry said the pipeline's full pumping capacity of about 7 mb/d and Manifa output had been restored; work at Khurais continued.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Saudi Press Agency","date":"2026-04-12","label":"Saudi Press Agency, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/w2557744"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-12","label":"Al Jazeera, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/12/saudi-arabia-says-key-oil-pipeline-back-to-full-capacity-after-attacks"},{"publisher":"Fortune","date":"2026-04-12","label":"Fortune, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://fortune.com/2026/04/12/saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline-full-capacity-iran-war-attack/"}],"notes":"The exact strike time was given as hours after the ceasefire was declared (7/8 April); the Saudi Press Agency's initial report came the previous week. This pipeline was the main Hormuz bypass; see also the 11 September shutdown."},{"date":"2026-04-08","event":"After the ceasefire, QatarEnergy began mobilising staff to restart LNG production at Ras Laffan. The National reported that the site might not be fully back online for months.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"gCaptain","date":"2026-04-08","label":"gCaptain, 8 Apr 2026","url":"https://gcaptain.com/qatar-begins-work-to-resume-lng-production-after-ceasefire/"},{"publisher":"The National","date":"2026-04-09","label":"The National, 9 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/04/09/months-expected-until-qatars-ras-laffan-lng-site-resumes-full-operations/"}],"notes":"QatarEnergy reported an operational incident during start-up at Ras Laffan on 21 June, so restart work was still under way then (QatarEnergy; see the exposure events). No complete, sourced restart schedule was found (see gaps)."},{"date":"2026-04-12","event":"US-Iran talks in Islamabad on 11-12 April ended without agreement.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-12","label":"CNBC, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz-blockade.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-27","label":"Al Jazeera, 27 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/27/us-iran-have-launched-multiple-attacks-during-ceasefire-a-timeline"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-12","label":"PBS NewsHour, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/failed-u-s-iran-negotiations-in-pakistan-raise-questions-about-fragile-ceasefire","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-04-13","event":"US Central Command began a naval blockade of all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports (from 10:00 ET), while stating it would not impede transits of the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Central Command","date":"2026-04-12","label":"US Central Command, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4457255/us-to-blockade-ships-entering-or-exiting-iranian-ports/"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-13","label":"Al Jazeera, 13 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/us-military-threatens-to-blockade-all-iranian-ports-starting-on-monday"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-13","label":"CNBC, 13 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz-blockade.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-12","label":"PBS NewsHour, 12 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-military-is-poised-to-blockade-iranian-ports-while-tehran-threatens-ports-in-the-mideast","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The first blockade ran from 13 April to 18 June (CENTCOM release of 13 July 2026)."},{"date":"2026-04-17","event":"Iran's foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic, in connection with a ceasefire in Lebanon. Oil prices fell.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-17","label":"CNBC, 17 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/oil-prices-wti-brent-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-trump.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-17","label":"PBS NewsHour, 17 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/oil-prices-plummet-as-wall-street-rallies-to-new-record-following-strait-of-hormuz-reopening"},{"publisher":"CBS News","date":"2026-04-17","label":"CBS News, 17 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-war-oil-prices-plummet-strait-of-hormuz-open/"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-17","label":"PBS NewsHour, 17 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-and-irans-foreign-minister-declare-strait-of-hormuz-is-fully-open","addedByCheck":true}],"brentFact":{"fact":"Brent futures fell 10.3% to $89.13 intraday on 17 April.","measure":"futures, intraday (as reported by PBS/AP)","source":"PBS NewsHour (AP), 17 Apr 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-04-18","event":"About a day after declaring the strait open, Iran reimposed restrictions, citing the continuing US blockade, and ships in the strait were reported to have come under fire. The US said that on 19 April its Navy fired on and seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman for trying to pass the blockade.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-04-19","label":"NPR, 19 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/19/nx-s1-5790378/iran-us-hormuz-closed-impossible"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-19","label":"CNBC, 19 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/trump-navy-iran-ship-gulf-of-oman.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-19","label":"Al Jazeera, 19 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/19/trump-says-us-seized-iran-flagged-ship-trying-to-get-past-hormuz-blockade"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-18","label":"PBS NewsHour, 18 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/irans-military-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-citing-u-s-blockade","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-22","label":"CNBC, 22 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker-ship-trump-blockade.html","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Al Jazeera's later timeline dates the seizure 20 April (time-zone difference). Oil rose again on 20 April (CNBC).","originalDate":"2026-04-19"},{"date":"2026-04-22","event":"The IRGC said it had seized two container vessels, MSC Francesca and Epaminondas, for lacking authorisation to transit, and ships in the strait were reported to have been fired on. This came a day after the US extended the ceasefire while keeping its blockade in place.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-22","label":"CNBC, 22 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker-ship-trump-blockade.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-23","label":"Al Jazeera, 23 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/how-iran-raised-hormuz-stakes-by-capturing-ships"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-27","label":"Al Jazeera, 27 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/27/us-iran-have-launched-multiple-attacks-during-ceasefire-a-timeline"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-04-22","label":"PBS NewsHour, 22 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-complicating-efforts-to-resume-u-s-ceasefire-talks","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The IMO Secretary-General said on 24 April that there was no safe transit anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz and that about 20,000 seafarers were stranded in the Gulf (https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/no-safe-transit-through-hormuz-imo-secretary-general.aspx)."},{"date":"2026-04-28","event":"The United Arab Emirates announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ with effect from 1 May 2026, after 59 years of membership.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"WAM","date":"2026-04-28","label":"WAM, 28 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.wam.ae/en/article/bzxzuh7-uae-announces-decision-exit-opec-opec+"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-04-28","label":"CNBC, 28 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-04-28","label":"Al Jazeera, 28 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/what-are-opec-and-opec-and-why-has-the-uae-quit"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-05-03","label":"CNBC, 3 May 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Later OPEC+ voluntary-cut decisions involve seven countries rather than eight."},{"date":"2026-04-29","event":"Brent front-month futures reached their second-quarter high of $118/b on 29 April (EIA). EIA said uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz contributed to volatile prices in April and May.","category":"market","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-07-15","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily)","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (monthly)","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (monthly), 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Sources give different peak levels because they use different measures and contracts; this study analyses World Bank monthly averages.","originalDate":"2026-04-30","brentFact":{"fact":"EIA gave the front-month futures high for 2Q26 as $118/b on 29 April.","measure":"front-month futures, as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-05-03","event":"In their first meeting without the UAE, seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) agreed a 188,000 b/d quota increase for June 2026.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-05-03","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 3 May 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-05-03","label":"CNBC, 3 May 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html"}],"notes":"CNBC (7 Jun, citing OPEC figures): actual OPEC+ output averaged 33.19 mb/d in April, against 42.77 mb/d in February."},{"date":"2026-05-04","event":"The US Navy began an effort to guide stranded merchant ships out through the Strait of Hormuz (CENTCOM). The UAE reported missile and drone attacks the same day, including a fire at a refinery in Fujairah.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Central Command","date":"2026-05-04","label":"US Central Command, 4 May 2026","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4476318/us-military-supports-launch-of-project-freedom-in-strait-of-hormuz/"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-27","label":"Al Jazeera, 27 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/27/us-iran-have-launched-multiple-attacks-during-ceasefire-a-timeline"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-05-04","label":"PBS NewsHour, 4 May 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-says-2-merchant-ships-have-crossed-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-navy-helps-to-restore-shipping-traffic","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-05","label":"Al Jazeera, 5 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/whats-the-significance-of-uaes-fujairah-hit-on-monday","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-05-05","event":"On 5 May the US paused the ship-escort effort, citing progress towards an agreement; the US blockade of Iranian ports stayed in force. On 6 May Lloyd's List reported that Iran had created a Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to approve and charge for transits of the Strait of Hormuz; applications require ownership, insurance, crew and route details. Iran formally announced the PGSA on 18 May.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-05-07","label":"PBS NewsHour, 7 May 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-creates-new-agency-to-control-shipping-in-strait-of-hormuz-while-reviewing-peace-deal-with-u-s"},{"publisher":"Lloyd's List","date":"2026-05","label":"Lloyd's List, May 2026","url":"https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1157093/Iran-pushes-ahead-with-Hormuz-toll-authority-amid-reports-of-US-Iran-deal"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-05","label":"Al Jazeera, 5 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/trump-announces-pause-on-us-operation-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz"},{"publisher":"Jerusalem Post","date":"2026-05-18","label":"Jerusalem Post, 18 May 2026","url":"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-896582","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-05-21","label":"Al Jazeera, 21 May 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/5/21/maths-behind-hormuz-toll-is-paying-iran-for-transit-cheaper-than-blockade","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Al Jazeera (21 May) reported transit fees of up to $2 million per ship; no official tariff was published. A transit fee is an added cost for Gulf-routed cargo."},{"date":"2026-05-27","event":"OFAC added Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority to the SDN sanctions list (as linked to the IRGC). Anyone paying it or cooperating with it for Hormuz transits faced US sanctions risk.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-05-27","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 27 May 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260527_33"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-05-28","label":"PBS NewsHour, 28 May 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/u-s-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-agency-trying-to-control-shipping-in-the-strait-of-hormuz"}],"notes":"This put shipowners in a compliance bind: Iran demanded PGSA permits while US sanctions prohibited dealing with the PGSA."},{"date":"2026-05-27","event":"UK: Ofgem announced a 13% rise in the domestic energy price cap for 1 July to 30 September 2026, attributing it to higher wholesale gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Gas bills rose more than electricity bills.","category":"policy","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Ofgem press release","date":"2026-05-27","label":"Ofgem press release, 27 May 2026","url":"https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-release/energy-price-cap-will-rise-13-july"},{"publisher":"Installer Online","date":"2026-05-27","label":"Installer Online, 27 May 2026","url":"https://www.installeronline.co.uk/news/ofgem-confirms-energy-price-cap-to-rise-13/"}],"notes":"The domestic price cap does not apply to business energy contracts. UK non-domestic prices, which matter for running IT, are in the energy stream (DESNZ QEP 3.4.1/3.4.2). Ofgem material is generally published under the Open Government Licence."},{"date":"2026-05-29","event":"EIA said negotiated ceasefires and anticipation that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume led Brent to fall by more than $1/b a day on average between 18 May and 17 June. The US and Iran were reported to have mostly agreed terms for a 60-day memorandum of understanding (CNBC; PBS/AP).","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-05-29","label":"CNBC, 29 May 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-07-15","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-05-29","label":"PBS NewsHour, 29 May 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iranian-negotiators-reach-tentative-deal-to-extend-ceasefire-and-start-new-nuclear-talks","addedByCheck":true}],"brentFact":{"fact":"EIA said Brent fell by more than $1/b a day on average between 18 May and 17 June.","measure":"as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-06-07","event":"Seven OPEC+ countries agreed a 188,000 b/d quota increase for July 2026, their fourth increase since the strait was closed. A separate meeting of all OPEC+ members made no change to group-wide output policy, which runs to the end of 2026.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-06-07","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 7 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1781604-7-june-2026.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-06-07","label":"CNBC, 7 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/07/opec-set-for-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-strait-of-hormuz-closure.html"}]},{"date":"2026-06-11","event":"After several days of reported US-Iran strikes (including US strikes around Bandar Abbas), Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely closed to tankers and commercial ships. The US disputed the claim.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-06-11","label":"Al Jazeera, 11 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/iran-shuts-hormuz-strait-but-wasnt-it-already-closed"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-06-11","label":"NPR, 11 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/06/10/nx-s1-5853882/us-strike-iran-second-day-renewed-fire"}],"notes":"The practical effect was limited because traffic was already down to a trickle (NPR, Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2026-06-17","event":"The US and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade, and provide US sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports while a final deal was negotiated within 60 days.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-07-15","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-06-18","label":"NPR, 18 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863517/trump-iran-deal-blockade-strait-hormuz"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-08-16","label":"Al Jazeera, 16 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/16/us-iran-mou-is-set-to-expire-what-to-know"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-06-18","label":"Al Jazeera, 18 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-06-14","label":"PBS NewsHour, 14 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/deal-is-reached-to-end-iran-war-and-trump-orders-stop-to-us-naval-blockade","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-06-17","label":"PBS NewsHour, 17 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/whats-in-the-agreement-to-end-the-u-s-war-in-iran-according-to-a-u-s-official","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The EIA's 7 July STEO press release dates the MoU 18 June; EIA Today in Energy, NPR and Al Jazeera date the signing 17 June (a Wednesday)."},{"date":"2026-06-18","event":"US Central Command lifted its blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas under the terms of the MoU.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-06-18","label":"NPR, 18 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863517/trump-iran-deal-blockade-strait-hormuz"},{"publisher":"US Central Command","date":"2026-07-13","label":"US Central Command, 13 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-06-18","label":"PBS NewsHour, 18 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-blockade-of-iran-and-iranian-supreme-leader-endorses-direct-talks-with-american-officials","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"CNBC (24 Jun): tankers carrying about 35 million barrels that had been stuck in the Gulf exited the strait after the deal."},{"date":"2026-06-20","event":"Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a breach of the agreement. US Central Command said traffic was still moving; commercial transits fell over the weekend.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-06-20","label":"NPR, 20 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/06/20/nx-s1-5864209/iran-claims-hormuz-closure-u-s-says-ships-still-passing"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-06-20","label":"PBS NewsHour, 20 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iran-to-talk-sunday-in-switzerland-as-tehran-says-it-closed-strait-of-hormuz-again"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-06-22","label":"CNBC, 22 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/strait-of-hormuz-iran-us-shipping-oil.html"}],"notes":"US-Iran talks took place at Burgenstock, Switzerland, on 21 June."},{"date":"2026-06-22","event":"OFAC issued Iran General License X (dated 21 June), authorising the production, delivery and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products until 21 August 2026. This was the sanctions relief promised under the MoU.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-06-22","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 22 Jun 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260622_33"},{"publisher":"Holland & Knight","date":"2026-06","label":"Holland & Knight, Jun 2026","url":"https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/06/us-authorizes-sale-of-iranian-oil-for-60-days"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-06-18","label":"NPR, 18 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863517/trump-iran-deal-blockade-strait-hormuz"},{"publisher":"Norton Rose Fulbright","date":"2026-07","label":"Norton Rose Fulbright, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/917bea3e/iran-oil-relief-ends-abruptly-as-ofac-orders-immediate-wind-down","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-06-26","event":"Brent futures fell to their second-quarter low ($72/b on 26 June, EIA). Al Jazeera reported attacks on the container ship Ever Lovely (25 June) and the tanker Kiku (27 June), followed by US strikes on Iran's southern coast and Iranian strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.","category":"market","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy","date":"2026-07-15","label":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-09","label":"Al Jazeera, 9 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17"}],"brentFact":{"fact":"EIA gave the front-month futures low for 2Q26 as $72/b on 26 June.","measure":"front-month futures, as stated by EIA","source":"U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-07-02","event":"The Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA) was below its 27 February level on 2 July. Al Jazeera linked the lower prices to reports of progress in indirect US-Iran talks mediated by Qatar; CNBC cited lower Chinese imports, more exports from producers outside the Middle East and the IEA stock release.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-02","label":"Al Jazeera, 2 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/2/oil-prices-fall-to-levels-not-seen-since-start-of-us-israel-war-on-iran"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-05","label":"CNBC, 5 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/05/opec-set-to-approve-another-oil-output-increase.html"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily)","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-07-05","event":"Seven OPEC+ countries agreed a 188,000 b/d quota increase for August 2026.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-05","label":"CNBC, 5 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/05/opec-set-to-approve-another-oil-output-increase.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-06","label":"Al Jazeera, 6 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/6/opec-countries-say-they-will-expand-monthly-oil-production"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-05","label":"PBS NewsHour, 5 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/7-opec-countries-agree-to-expand-monthly-oil-production-modestly-as-prices-slide","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"CNBC (citing OPEC data): OPEC+ output was 33.13 mb/d in May, against 42.77 mb/d in February, and began recovering in June."},{"date":"2026-07-07","event":"OFAC revoked General License X and issued GL X1 authorising only a wind-down, ending the MoU sanctions relief for Iranian oil after reported attacks on shipping.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-07-07","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 7 Jul 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260707"},{"publisher":"Norton Rose Fulbright","date":"2026-07","label":"Norton Rose Fulbright, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/917bea3e/iran-oil-relief-ends-abruptly-as-ofac-orders-immediate-wind-down"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-08","label":"Al Jazeera, 8 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/oil-prices-surge-as-us-strikes-iran-reversing-fall-to-pre-war-levels"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-07","label":"PBS NewsHour, 7 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/3-tankers-hit-in-latest-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-british-military-says","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Iran said the revocation breached the MoU (Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2026-07-08","event":"After three merchant ships were struck in and near the Strait of Hormuz on 7 July, US Central Command began a series of strikes on Iran early on 8 July (Gulf time). The US President said the ceasefire had ended.","category":"military","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-08","label":"CNBC, 8 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/trump-iran-war-deal-hormuz-strait-ceasefire.html"},{"publisher":"CBS News","date":"2026-07-08","label":"CBS News, 8 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-us-war-strait-of-hormuz-trump-nato/"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-08","label":"Al Jazeera, 8 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/oil-prices-surge-as-us-strikes-iran-reversing-fall-to-pre-war-levels"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-07","label":"PBS NewsHour, 7 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-launches-strikes-against-iran-after-ships-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Iran did not directly claim the ship attacks; US, Qatari and Saudi officials attributed them to Iran (Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2026-07-11","event":"The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, citing US interference. The US carried out further strikes after an attack on the container ship GFS Galaxy, and missiles and drones were launched at several Gulf states (Al Jazeera; CNBC).","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-13","label":"Al Jazeera, 13 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/13/oil-prices-jump-as-us-and-iran-trade-attacks-over-strait-of-hormuz"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-12","label":"Al Jazeera, 12 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/12/iran-war-live-irgc-declares-strait-of-hormuz-closed-over-us-interference"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-11","label":"CNBC, 11 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/us-airstrikes-iran-strait-hormuz.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07","label":"PBS NewsHour, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-says-it-is-suspending-commitments-to-interim-deal-with-u-s-as-they-exchange-attacks"}],"notes":"The PGSA said vessels using routes other than its designated route would not be covered by safe-passage guarantees (Al Jazeera).","originalDate":"2026-07-12"},{"date":"2026-07-14","event":"US Central Command resumed its naval blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports from 16:00 ET on 14 July (CENTCOM release of 13 July). The same day OFAC announced further Iran-related shipping designations.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Central Command","date":"2026-07-13","label":"US Central Command, 13 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-07-14","label":"NPR, 14 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/07/14/nx-s1-5893257/us-iran-updates"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-14","label":"Al Jazeera, 14 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/us-strikes-new-targets-in-iran-as-tehran-hits-gulf-states-hormuz"},{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-07-14","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 14 Jul 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260714"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-15","label":"PBS NewsHour, 15 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-reimposes-blockade-and-steps-up-strikes-as-iran-threatens-to-halt-all-energy-exports-from-the-region","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-07-20","event":"Yemen's Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, saying vessels loading or discharging at any Saudi port were prohibited. This threatened Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, which bypass Hormuz.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-22","label":"CNBC, 22 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/houthis-red-sea-bab-el-mandeb-saudi-oil-iran.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-07-23","label":"Al Jazeera, 23 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/23/how-shipping-insurance-rates-are-rising-as-hormuz-bab-al-mandeb-shut-down"},{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-21","label":"International Energy Agency, 21 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-executive-director-statement-on-oil-markets"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-20","label":"PBS NewsHour, 20 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/yemens-iranian-backed-houthis-announce-a-maritime-embargo-against-saudi-arabia","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"JMIC (via CNBC) warned that missiles and drones had been deployed near Bab el-Mandeb; EU naval forces advised vessels linked to Israel, the US or Saudi Arabia to avoid the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA said threats to Bab el-Mandeb added to concerns over supply security."},{"date":"2026-07-21","event":"The IRGC claimed a cruise-missile strike on AWS infrastructure in Bahrain. AWS's Bahrain region (me-south-1) had already been unavailable for months, and the claim could not be independently confirmed.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-07-21","label":"The Register, 21 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/07/21/iran-says-its-struck-offline-aws-facility-in-bahrain-again/5275762"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-21","label":"CNBC, 21 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/iran-war-update-five-things-to-know-after-resumption-of-hostilities.html"}],"notes":"This is a claim, not a confirmed strike. The Register noted that the last AWS Health Dashboard update on the Gulf regions was on 30 April."},{"date":"2026-07-21","event":"UK: the Government announced that VAT would be removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October 2026 for the rest of the financial year, estimating the saving at about £45 a year on the typical Ofgem price cap.","category":"policy","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"GOV.UK","date":"2026-07-21","label":"GOV.UK, 21 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-pm-cuts-tax-on-household-electricity-bills-to-give-breathing-space-on-cost-of-living"},{"publisher":"vatcalc.com","date":"2026-07","label":"vatcalc.com, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.vatcalc.com/uk/uk-cuts-domestic-energy-vat-from-5-to-0-oct-2026/"}],"notes":"Covers domestic electricity, plus supplies that qualify for the domestic reduced rate (for example small businesses under the de minimis threshold and charities). Standard business supplies are not covered, and gas is not covered (GOV.UK, 21 Jul 2026). Recorded because it changes the published UK price-cap figures from October."},{"date":"2026-07-23","event":"Brent futures settled above $100 again after the Houthis said they had struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-07-23","label":"CNBC, 23 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/cnbc-daily-open-brent-100-trump-renews-tariffs.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-09-07","label":"Al Jazeera, 7 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/7/oil-prices-surge-as-us-iran-strikes-intensify-in-strait-of-hormuz"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-07-23","label":"PBS NewsHour, 23 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/yemens-houthis-attack-saudi-tankers-in-the-red-sea-threatening-to-widen-iran-war","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"The sources differ on contract and measure; this study analyses World Bank monthly averages.","brentFact":{"fact":"Brent futures settled at $100.69 on 23 July, the first close above $100 since 26 May.","measure":"front-month futures settlement (as reported by CNBC)","source":"CNBC, 23 Jul 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-08-02","event":"Seven OPEC+ countries agreed a 188,000 b/d quota increase for September 2026 (OPEC). CNBC reported that this completed the rollback of the 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut agreed in 2023.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-08-02","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 2 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1854611-2-august-2026.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-08-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/02/opec-agrees-september-oil-hike-completing-rollback-of-voluntary-cuts.html"}],"notes":"CNBC: the increases had limited practical effect because of export disruption from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan."},{"date":"2026-08-09","event":"A fire broke out at Saudi Aramco's refinery in Jizan and was extinguished. The Houthis claimed a drone attack on the site.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-08-09","label":"Al Jazeera, 9 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/9/saudi-arabia-says-fire-extinguished-at-aramco-facility-in-jizan"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-08-09","label":"NPR, 9 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/08/09/nx-s1-5926387/yemens-houthis-claim-attack-on-aramco-oil-facility-in-saudi-arabia-and-other-middle-east-news"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-08-09","label":"CNBC, 9 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/09/saudi-aramco-extinguishes-refinery-fire-houthis-claim-attack.html"}],"notes":"The Houthis had claimed attacks on Aramco facilities in Jizan and on Yanbu in July. Aramco's CEO said recent attacks had caused some production interruptions but no material operational or financial impact (Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2026-08-17","event":"The 60-day negotiating window under the 17 June MoU ended on 17 August without a final agreement. The US naval blockade remained in force: Al Jazeera reported that the Pentagon had fired on a cargo vessel that week for violating it.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-08-16","label":"Al Jazeera, 16 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/16/us-iran-mou-is-set-to-expire-what-to-know"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-08-18","label":"CNBC, 18 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-trump-ceasefire-expires-extension-.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-08-17","label":"PBS NewsHour, 17 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-60-day-deadline-for-a-peace-deal-with-iran-is-expiring-heres-where-things-stand","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"60-day window ended Monday 17 August 2026 (PBS/AP; Al Jazeera)."},{"date":"2026-08-24","event":"The US Treasury announced nearly 60 new Iran-related designations, including tankers and petroleum and petrochemical traders; expanded sector-based designation risk to Iran's aviation, digital-asset, gold, shipping and technology sectors; and suspended several general licences (including those for academic and sports exchanges and personal remittances), with a wind-down licence to 8 September.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"US Treasury OFAC","date":"2026-08-24","label":"US Treasury OFAC, 24 Aug 2026","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260824"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-08-25","label":"CNBC, 25 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/iran-oman-strait-hormuz-oil.html"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-08-28","label":"PBS NewsHour, 28 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-targets-egyptian-banks-uae-branches-under-new-push-for-irans-economic-isolation","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09","label":"PBS NewsHour, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-hits-remaining-parts-of-irans-aviation-sector-with-sanctions-in-latest-move-to-isolate-tehran","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Further OFAC Iran-related designations followed on 28 Aug and 4, 8, 10, 14 and 17 Sep 2026 (OFAC Recent Actions). IT relevance: the sector determination covers Iran's technology sector, so IT resellers and exporters should check their sanctions screening."},{"date":"2026-08-25","event":"Iran and Oman discussed, and on 25 August agreed, a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz and a joint mine-clearing project. The US President said the US Navy had removed all mines from the strait's international waters, and US Central Command said more than 660 million barrels of crude had left Hormuz under its protection since May. Iran said the strait would not fully reopen until the US met its MoU commitments.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-08-25","label":"CNBC, 25 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/iran-oman-strait-hormuz-oil.html"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-08-26","label":"Al Jazeera, 26 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/26/iran-oman-agree-on-temporary-hormuz-route-what-we-know"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-08-04","label":"PBS NewsHour, 4 Aug 2026 (background only)","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-and-oman-make-progress-on-deal-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-officials-say","addedByCheck":true,"role":"background"}],"notes":"Iran requires ships to use a northern route through its waters; the US protects a southern route along Oman's coast (CNBC). The IMO (28 Aug) had verified at least 70 attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February (https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/statement-on-the-ongoing-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz.aspx)."},{"date":"2026-08-26","event":"UK: Ofgem announced a 4% rise in the domestic energy price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026, which it attributed to higher wholesale gas prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Ofgem said the VAT removal kept electricity bills broadly stable, while gas bills rose by about 8%.","category":"policy","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"Ofgem press release","date":"2026-08-26","label":"Ofgem press release, 26 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-release/energy-price-cap-will-rise-4-october-2026"},{"publisher":"Uswitch","date":"2026-08-26","label":"Uswitch, 26 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/news/october-energy-price-cap-to-increase-by-four-percent/"}],"notes":"The domestic price cap does not apply to business energy contracts."},{"date":"2026-08-30","event":"The US said it struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island that were preparing to fire sea mines into the strait. Iran was reported to have fired missiles at US forces in the UAE and Jordan (NPR; Al Jazeera). This was the first exchange of fire between the two since 29 July.","category":"military","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-08-31","label":"NPR, 31 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/08/31/g-s1-141175/attacks-flare-us-iran"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-08-30","label":"Al Jazeera, 30 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/us-strikes-irans-lark-island-in-first-attack-in-weeks"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-08-30","label":"PBS NewsHour, 30 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ap-report-u-s-forces-strike-iranian-rocket-launchers-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-first-military-action-in-weeks","addedByCheck":true}]},{"date":"2026-09-01","event":"US Central Command said it began a new wave of strikes on IRGC targets (air defence, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites) after attempted attacks on shipping. Iran said it had targeted US positions in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE.","category":"military","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-01","label":"CNBC, 1 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/us-strikes-iran-after-new-hormuz-strait-shipping-attacks-centcom.html"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-09-02","label":"NPR, 2 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/02/nx-s1-5954013/us-iran-war-latest-updates"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-02","label":"CNBC, 2 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/brent-oil-us-iran-strikes.html"}],"notes":"The US Energy Secretary told CNBC that more than 17 million barrels had transited Hormuz on 31 August, against about 20 million b/d before the conflict. JMIC Update 092 (1 Sep) recorded 39 US-facilitated transits over 30-31 August and single-digit daily non-facilitated transits in each direction."},{"date":"2026-09-05","event":"The US said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on 5 September and destroyed five on 8 September after what it described as attempted attacks on a US warship. The IRGC said it had struck tankers and US-linked vessels.","category":"shipping","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-09-07","label":"Al Jazeera, 7 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/7/oil-prices-surge-as-us-iran-strikes-intensify-in-strait-of-hormuz"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-09","label":"CNBC, 9 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-us-iran-hormuz-attacks.html"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-09-08","label":"NPR, 8 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/08/g-s1-142296/houthi-attacks-saudi-arabia"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09-05","label":"PBS NewsHour, 5 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-military-hits-3-iranian-oil-tankers-after-saying-navy-ships-were-targeted-with-missiles","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09-08","label":"PBS NewsHour, 8 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-strikes-iranian-tankers-after-more-attempted-missile-attacks-on-navy-warship","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Al Jazeera, citing the Financial Times, reported a second strike on Aramco's Jizan facilities on 7 September (single reporting chain)."},{"date":"2026-09-06","event":"Seven OPEC+ countries kept required production for October 2026 unchanged from September.","category":"policy","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"OPEC Secretariat press release","date":"2026-09-06","label":"OPEC Secretariat press release, 6 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1835613-6-september-2026.html"},{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-06","label":"CNBC, 6 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/06/opec-oil-output-october.html"}],"notes":"The group must agree 2027 production baselines, based on the capacity assessment, before deciding further steps (CNBC)."},{"date":"2026-09-08","event":"Saudi Arabia reported missile and drone attacks on southern areas (Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait) that started fires at several oil facilities and utilities, and its Energy Ministry said operations at the affected sites were temporarily suspended. NPR (AP) attributed the attacks to the Houthis, after weeks of renewed fighting in Yemen that ended a four-year truce.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"added","sources":[{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-09-08","label":"NPR, 8 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/08/g-s1-142296/houthi-attacks-saudi-arabia"},{"publisher":"CBC News","date":"2026-09-08","label":"CBC News, 8 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/saudi-houthi-attacks-9.7335307"},{"publisher":"Bloomberg","date":"2026-09-08","label":"Bloomberg, 8 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-08/saudi-arabia-says-several-energy-sites-halted-after-attacks"}],"notes":"Casualty figures in the sources are deliberately omitted. This was previously merged into the 5 September tanker-strike event. Relevant to Saudi Red Sea-side supply (Jazan refinery; Yanbu route)."},{"date":"2026-09-11","event":"The Houthis were reported to have taken control of Yemen's Red Sea coast, including the port of Mocha, and to have moved onto Mayyun (Perim) island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait after Yemeni government forces withdrew.","category":"shipping","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-09-11","label":"Al Jazeera, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/11/houthis-take-control-of-yemens-red-sea-coast-key-shipping-route"},{"publisher":"NPR","date":"2026-09-11","label":"NPR, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/11/g-s1-142822/houthis-red-sea-port"},{"publisher":"The Guardian","date":"2026-09-11","label":"The Guardian, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/11/iran-houthi-allies-capture-strategic-island-bab-al-mandab-strait"},{"publisher":"BBC News","date":"2026-09-11","label":"BBC News, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3v4zgzr1kxo"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09-11","label":"PBS NewsHour, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/yemens-iranian-backed-houthis-seize-an-island-in-a-key-strait-opening-a-new-front-in-the-iran-war","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"Mocha was seized on 10 September. Bab el-Mandeb was the main alternative export route for Gulf crude via Yanbu, and is the southern gateway to Suez for Asia-Europe container traffic (IT imports)."},{"date":"2026-09-11","event":"Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline (Abqaiq to Yanbu), its main route for bypassing Hormuz, after drone attacks in the Riyadh and Medina regions. Saudi Arabia said the drones came from Iraq. BBC Verify said satellite images showed major damage at a pumping station.","category":"energy-infrastructure","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-11","label":"CNBC, 11 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/saudi-arabia-shut-down-east-west-crude-oil-pipeline.html"},{"publisher":"The Guardian","date":"2026-09-12","label":"The Guardian, 12 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/12/saudi-arabia-shuts-down-oil-pipeline-blaming-drones-from-iraq"},{"publisher":"BBC News","date":"2026-09-15","label":"BBC News, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c65yw2gq2nrno"},{"publisher":"Al Jazeera","date":"2026-09-12","label":"Al Jazeera, 12 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/12/saudi-arabia-shuts-critical-oil-pipeline-after-drone-attack-what-happened"},{"publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-09","label":"International Energy Agency, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09-12","label":"PBS NewsHour, 12 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/attack-on-key-saudi-pipeline-is-blamed-on-iran-backed-militias-in-iraq","addedByCheck":true},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09-14","label":"PBS NewsHour, 14 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/saudi-oil-pipeline-hit-in-strikes-will-be-mostly-out-of-service-for-several-weeks","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"IEA: the pipeline carried 3.5 mb/d of crude exports in August. JMIC reported it shut on 11 September as a precaution. PBS/AP (14 Sep) reported it would be mostly out of service for several weeks."},{"date":"2026-09-14","event":"Oil prices rose after the pipeline shutdown and reported attacks on Saudi infrastructure.","category":"market","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"BBC News","date":"2026-09-15","label":"BBC News, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c65yw2gq2nrno"},{"publisher":"The Guardian","date":"2026-09-14","label":"The Guardian, 14 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/sep/14/oil-prices-rise-drone-attacks-saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline"},{"publisher":"BBC News","date":"2026-09-16","label":"BBC News, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlym3wye1ero"},{"publisher":"DESNZ, Weekly road fuel prices","date":"2026-09-15","label":"DESNZ, Weekly road fuel prices, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-road-fuel-prices"},{"publisher":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily)","date":"2026-09-16","label":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"UK road fuel (DESNZ weekly road fuel prices): petrol 168.14p and diesel 190.72p a litre on 14 September 2026; petrol was the highest since 5 September 2022.","brentFact":{"fact":"The Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA) was $130.80 on 15 September.","measure":"EIA daily spot (EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv)","source":"U.S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily), 16 Sep 2026","note":"One price fact per event, labelled with its measure; never charted and never included in the CSV files."}},{"date":"2026-09-15","event":"AWS said it could not restore access to resources and data hosted only in its Bahrain region (me-south-1), because damage across multiple availability zones exceeded what its regional and multi-zone services are designed to withstand. It also could not recover data held only in one UAE zone (mec1-az2), and was still working on two other UAE zones.","category":"data-centre","verdict":"confirmed","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-15","label":"CNBC, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/aws-cant-restore-service-to-bahrain-uae-6-months-after-iran-strikes.html"},{"publisher":"The Register","date":"2026-09-16","label":"The Register, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theregister.com/off-prem/2026/09/16/aws-says-wartime-damage-means-some-middle-east-cloud-resources-are-gone-for-good/5296830"},{"publisher":"Help Net Security","date":"2026-09-17","label":"Help Net Security, 17 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/09/17/aws-middle-east-outage-permanent-data-loss-bahrain-uae/"}],"notes":"First public AWS update on these incidents since April; AWS said it would update Bahrain users in early 2027. IT relevance: region-level loss beyond multi-zone design assumptions, which matters for disaster-recovery planning."},{"date":"2026-09-16","event":"Status as of mid-September: no ceasefire was in force, the US blockade of Iranian ports continued, Hormuz traffic remained well below pre-conflict levels (JMIC), the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut (JMIC; PBS/AP), and fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia had intensified.","category":"policy","verdict":"corrected","sources":[{"publisher":"CNBC","date":"2026-09-17","label":"CNBC, 17 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html"},{"publisher":"BBC News","date":"2026-09-16","label":"BBC News, 16 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlym3wye1ero"},{"publisher":"The Guardian","date":"2026-09-14","label":"The Guardian, 14 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/gulf-states-postpone-strait-of-hormuz-talks-iran-yemen-houthi-saudi-arabia-airbase-pipeline"},{"publisher":"JMIC","date":"2026-09-13","label":"JMIC, 13 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-096-jmic-advisory-note-13-september.pdf"},{"publisher":"PBS NewsHour","date":"2026-09","label":"PBS NewsHour, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-u-s-has-made-progress-in-reopening-the-strait-of-hormuz-but-the-iran-war-is-far-from-over","addedByCheck":true}],"notes":"JMIC Update 096 (13 Sep): 70 US-facilitated transits over 10-12 September (about 23 a day) against a 2025 baseline of about 138 a day, plus 1-10 non-facilitated cargo-vessel and 0-4 tanker transits a day over 6-12 September. Ship trackers differ in what they count."}],"episodes":[{"id":"2008-rise","name":"2007-08 oil price rise","type":"magnitude-rule","note":"Run-up to the July 2008 record monthly average, during strong global demand.","baselineMonth":"2008-01","brentBaseline":91.9,"extremeMonth":"2008-07","brentExtreme":133.9,"brentMoveToExtremePct":45.7,"direction":"up","meetsMagnitudeRule":true,"brentChg3":19.91,"brentChg6":45.7,"brentChg12":-51.14,"brentMeasure":"Brent crude, monthly average of spot prices, US$/bbl (World Bank Pink Sheet)","responses":[{"seriesId":"ons_mm23_d7bt","label":"UK CPI: all items","group":"uk-consumer","region":"UK","role":"benchmark","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":1.94,"excess3":1.33,"trendPctPerYear":2.45,"overlap3":false,"chg6":3.28,"excess6":2.06,"overlap6":true,"chg12":3.03,"excess12":0.58,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_mm23_d7cs","label":"UK CPI 09.1: audio-visual and IT equipment","group":"uk-consumer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-2.81,"excess3":0.44,"trendPctPerYear":-12.37,"overlap3":false,"chg6":-5.78,"excess6":0.61,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-14.54,"excess12":-2.17,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_mm23_d7ep","label":"UK CPI 09.1.3: information processing equipment","group":"uk-consumer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-9.4,"excess3":-4.2,"trendPctPerYear":-19.24,"overlap3":false,"chg6":-10.57,"excess6":-0.44,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-22.02,"excess12":-2.78,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_mm23_d7c3","label":"UK CPI 08: communication","group":"uk-telecoms","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-1.55,"excess3":-0.91,"trendPctPerYear":-2.53,"overlap3":false,"chg6":-1.79,"excess6":-0.52,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-2.03,"excess12":0.5,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_gb7s","label":"UK PPI output: all manufacturing","group":"uk-producer","region":"UK","role":"benchmark","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":3.97,"excess3":2.76,"trendPctPerYear":4.93,"overlap3":false,"chg6":9.41,"excess6":6.97,"overlap6":true,"chg12":0.79,"excess12":-4.14,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g6t5","label":"UK PPI output: C26 computer, electronic and optical (domestic)","group":"uk-producer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-0.2,"excess3":0.18,"trendPctPerYear":-1.51,"overlap3":false,"chg6":0.3,"excess6":1.06,"overlap6":true,"chg12":1.4,"excess12":2.91,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g332","label":"UK PPI output: C261 electronic components and boards","group":"uk-producer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-0.33,"excess3":-0.74,"trendPctPerYear":1.67,"overlap3":false,"chg6":1.09,"excess6":0.25,"overlap6":true,"chg12":8.38,"excess12":6.71,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g333","label":"UK PPI output: C262 computers and peripherals","group":"uk-producer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":-1.14,"excess3":0.15,"trendPctPerYear":-5.04,"overlap3":false,"chg6":-1.52,"excess6":1.04,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-0.28,"excess12":4.75,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g334","label":"UK PPI output: C263 communication equipment","group":"uk-producer-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":0.42,"excess3":0.21,"trendPctPerYear":0.85,"overlap3":false,"chg6":0.84,"excess6":0.41,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-1.36,"excess12":-2.21,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_ghip","label":"UK PPI input: all manufacturing","group":"uk-producer","region":"UK","role":"benchmark","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":3.75,"excess3":2.44,"trendPctPerYear":5.31,"overlap3":false,"chg6":8.31,"excess6":5.69,"overlap6":true,"chg12":7.03,"excess12":1.71,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g6pt","label":"UK import prices: C26 from outside the EU","group":"uk-import-it","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":0.42,"excess3":1.31,"trendPctPerYear":-3.55,"overlap3":false,"chg6":0.14,"excess6":1.93,"overlap6":true,"chg12":17.06,"excess12":20.61,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_evxh","label":"UK PPI output: plastics in primary forms","group":"uk-materials","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":2.32,"excess3":0.86,"trendPctPerYear":5.96,"overlap3":false,"chg6":5.08,"excess6":2.14,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-13.81,"excess12":-19.78,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_ew72","label":"UK PPI output: aluminium","group":"uk-materials","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":3.94,"excess3":3.66,"trendPctPerYear":1.12,"overlap3":false,"chg6":10.62,"excess6":10.07,"overlap6":true,"chg12":-3.94,"excess12":-5.06,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_ew74","label":"UK PPI output: copper","group":"uk-materials","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"monthly","baseline":"2008-01","chg3":2.69,"excess3":0.06,"trendPctPerYear":10.9,"overlap3":false,"chg6":6.3,"excess6":0.99,"overlap6":true,"chg12":1.24,"excess12":-9.67,"overlap12":true},{"seriesId":"ons_sppi_hqti","label":"UK SPPI: all services (excl. financial)","group":"uk-services","region":"UK","role":"benchmark","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":1.39,"excess3":0.72,"trendPctPerYear":2.73,"overlap3":false,"chg6":3,"excess6":1.64,"overlap6":false,"chg12":2.89,"excess12":0.16,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"ons_sppi_hqsl","label":"UK SPPI: other transport support (incl. freight forwarding)","group":"uk-freight","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":3.5,"excess3":3.34,"trendPctPerYear":0.64,"overlap3":false,"chg6":9.51,"excess6":9.2,"overlap6":false,"chg12":11.84,"excess12":11.21,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic electricity, all consumers (p/kWh incl. CCL)","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":3.46,"excess3":0.9,"trendPctPerYear":10.64,"overlap3":false,"chg6":8.34,"excess6":3.16,"overlap6":false,"chg12":36.45,"excess12":25.81,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_small_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic electricity, small consumers","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":1.98,"excess3":-0.97,"trendPctPerYear":12.34,"overlap3":false,"chg6":2.52,"excess6":-3.47,"overlap6":false,"chg12":20.01,"excess12":7.67,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic electricity, medium consumers","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":0.62,"excess3":-0.85,"trendPctPerYear":5.99,"overlap3":false,"chg6":6.88,"excess6":3.92,"overlap6":false,"chg12":44.43,"excess12":38.43,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_very_large_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic electricity, very large consumers","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":10.96,"excess3":8.28,"trendPctPerYear":11.14,"overlap3":false,"chg6":18.66,"excess6":13.24,"overlap6":false,"chg12":60.88,"excess12":49.74,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_extra_large_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic electricity, extra large consumers","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":5.3,"excess3":null,"trendPctPerYear":null,"overlap3":false,"chg6":14.58,"excess6":null,"overlap6":false,"chg12":42.15,"excess12":null,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep342_gas_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","label":"UK non-domestic gas, all consumers","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"context","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":12.61,"excess3":12.94,"trendPctPerYear":-1.3,"overlap3":false,"chg6":18.64,"excess6":19.29,"overlap6":false,"chg12":45.48,"excess12":46.78,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"desnz_qep331_industrial_electricity_index_quarterly","label":"UK industrial electricity price index","group":"uk-energy","region":"UK","role":"it","frequency":"quarterly","baseline":"2007 Q4","chg3":3.4,"excess3":1.94,"trendPctPerYear":5.98,"overlap3":false,"chg6":12.06,"excess6":9.11,"overlap6":false,"chg12":52.79,"excess12":46.81,"overlap12":true,"horizonNote":"+3/+6/+12 = +1/+2/+4 quarters from the last quarter ending in or before the baseline month (for a December baseline, Q4 of that year)"},{"seriesId":"ons_cpi_energy_index_monthly","label":"UK CPI: 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Q3","peakValue":177.6,"changeToPeak":0.14506769825918764}],"hormuz":{"eiaQuarterly":{"hormuzOilMbd":{"2025-Q1":20.9,"2025-Q2":21,"2025-Q3":21.3,"2025-Q4":21.6,"2026-Q1":14.9,"2026-Q2":4.9},"hormuzLngBcfd":{"2025-Q1":11.7,"2025-Q2":11,"2025-Q3":10.9,"2025-Q4":10.5,"2026-Q1":7.4,"2026-Q2":0.8},"malaccaOilMbd":{"2025-Q1":22.3,"2025-Q2":23.8,"2025-Q3":23.4,"2025-Q4":24.9,"2026-Q1":21.3,"2026-Q2":16.6},"babElMandebOilMbd":{"2025-Q1":3.9,"2025-Q2":4.5,"2025-Q3":4.6,"2025-Q4":5.4,"2026-Q1":5.6,"2026-Q2":8.1},"source":"Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026), Table 2; EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking","caveat":"EIA estimate; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026. 2026 volumes are estimates and revised often.","hormuzOilChange4Q25to2Q26Pct":-77.31,"hormuzLngChange4Q25to2Q26Pct":-92.38,"malaccaOilChange4Q25to2Q26Pct":-33.33,"malaccaNote":"EIA's Strait of Malacca detail table (Table 3) gives 24.0 million b/d for 2025 Q4, a fall of about 30.8% to 2026 Q2; its own components (crude 18.0 + products 6.9) sum to 24.9, the Table 2 value used here (a fall of about 33.3%). The fall is best quoted as about 31-33%.","malaccaTable3_4Q25":24,"malaccaOilChange4Q25to2Q26Pct_Table3":-30.83},"transitFacts":[{"id":"jmic_hormuz_baseline","date":"2026-03-01","category":"Strait of Hormuz transits","value":138,"unit":"vessels per day (historical average; later notes call it the 2025 baseline)","claim":"JMIC put the historical average at about 138 vessel transits of the Strait of Hormuz per day. It said AIS review showed transits may have fallen to about 10 per day, roughly a 93% reduction.","source":"JMIC Advisory Note 001-26, Update 003","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-003---001---jmic-advisory-note-28_feb_2026_final.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_hormuz_24_25mar","date":"2026-03-26","category":"Strait of Hormuz transits","claim":"AIS-derived monitoring showed one commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz on 24 March and one on 25 March 2026.","source":"JMIC Update 024 to Advisory Note 001-26 (copy hosted by MSCIO)","url":"https://mscio.eu/media/documents/Update_024_-_JMIC_Advisory_Note_26-Mar_FINAL.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_068","date":"2026-07-07","category":"Strait of Hormuz transits","value":37,"unit":"US-assisted transits in 48 hours (5-6 July)","claim":"The regional threat level was SEVERE. Hormuz traffic moved via the southern Omani corridor and a northern route, with 37 US-assisted transits over 5-6 July 2026.","source":"JMIC Update 068 to Advisory Note 001-26","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-068-jmic-advisory-note-07-july.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_092","date":"2026-09-01","category":"Strait of Hormuz transits","value":39,"unit":"US-facilitated transits in 48 hours (30-31 August)","claim":"Commercial Hormuz traffic stayed well below baseline. Independent tracking showed single-digit daily non-facilitated transits in each direction, alongside 39 US-facilitated transits over 30-31 August 2026.","source":"JMIC Update 092 to Advisory Note 001-26","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-092-jmic-advisory-note-01-september.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_096_hormuz","date":"2026-09-13","category":"Strait of Hormuz transits","value":70,"unit":"US-facilitated transits in 72 hours (10-12 September)","claim":"JMIC said Hormuz traffic remained reduced against a 2025 baseline of about 138 transits a day. It recorded 70 US-facilitated transits over 10-12 September (about 23 a day), and non-facilitated transits of 1-10 cargo vessels and 0-4 tankers a day over 6-12 September.","source":"JMIC Update 096 to Advisory Note 001-26 (13 Sep 2026)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-096-jmic-advisory-note-13-september.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_096_bam_suez","date":"2026-09-13","category":"Red Sea / Suez routing","value":73,"unit":"Bab el-Mandeb transits in 72 hours (10-12 September); 2023 baseline about 61 per day","claim":"Bab el-Mandeb traffic continued at reduced levels, with 73 transits over 10-12 September against a 2023 baseline of about 61 per day. The Suez Canal was operating, with steady tanker flows and some container services returning.","source":"JMIC Update 096 to Advisory Note 001-26","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-096-jmic-advisory-note-13-september.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_096_pipeline","date":"2026-09-11","category":"energy infrastructure","claim":"JMIC reported that the Saudi East-West pipeline, the main Hormuz bypass to Yanbu, was shut on 11 September 2026 as a precaution and was offline at the time of reporting.","source":"JMIC Update 096 to Advisory Note 001-26","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-096-jmic-advisory-note-13-september.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"transitNote":"Transit counts are JMIC statements, cited as single facts. JMIC notes that trackers differ in what they count; counts from proprietary trackers (S&P Global, Kpler, Windward) are not reproduced.","portWatch":"IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transits were not used: its terms (IMF Copyright and Usage) are not CC BY, cite Kpler as a source, and bar bulk automated download without permission. No openly licensed Suez or Cape of Good Hope transit series was found."},"containerAndAirRateFacts":[{"id":"drewry_wci_20260917","date":"2026-09-17","category":"container freight rates","value":4500,"unit":"USD per 40ft container (WCI composite)","claim":"Drewry World Container Index composite: USD 4,500 per 40ft container on 17 Sep 2026.","source":"Drewry, World Container Index (17 Sep 2026)","url":"https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry","retrieved":"2026-09-19","licenceNote":"Drewry: all rights reserved; one dated composite value cited, no series, lanes or derived ratios reproduced."},{"id":"xeneta_air_202608","date":"2026-09-04","category":"air freight rates","value":3.13,"unit":"USD per kg (global air cargo spot rate, August 2026)","claim":"Xeneta put the global air cargo spot rate at USD 3.13/kg in August 2026, up 24% year on year.","source":"Xeneta press release (4 Sep 2026)","url":"https://www.xeneta.com/news/cut-out-the-noise-and-appreciate-air-cargo-s-stability-as-demand-grows-6-year-on-year-in-august","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"proprietaryRateNote":"Drewry and Xeneta are proprietary: one dated fact per release is cited, and no series, lane values or ratios between their values are reproduced.","warRiskFacts":[{"id":"jwc_jwla032","date":"2023-12-18","category":"war-risk insurance","claim":"JWC Listed Areas circular JWLA-032 (dated 18 Dec 2023, effective 20 Dec 2023) revised the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea listed waters, including the Red Sea south of 18N. It was the listing in force until JWLA-033, the next circular in the sequence.","source":"Lloyd's Market Association / IUA Joint War Committee (JWC circulars page)","url":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","retrieved":"2026-09-19","documentCopy":"https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/64994e756d223523b3773192/65b7df5966b30798eb8454bc_LocktonMarine_JWLA-032_18122023.pdf"},{"id":"jwc_jwla033","date":"2026-03-03","category":"war-risk insurance","claim":"JWC circular JWLA-033 added Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar to the Hull War, Piracy, Terrorism and Related Perils listed areas and redefined one combined listed area covering the Persian/Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, part of the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea (south of 18N). Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (Gulf coast), UAE and the Gulf waters were already listed.","source":"Lloyd's Market Association / IUA Joint War Committee (JWC circulars page)","url":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","retrieved":"2026-09-19","documentCopy":"https://lockbox.lockton.com/m/41d0f51e1ccde4fb/original/JWLA-033-03-03-2026.pdf"},{"id":"jwc_jwla034","date":"2026-07-29","category":"war-risk insurance","claim":"JWC circular JWLA-034 amended the listings for Saudi Arabia and Eritrea, moved the Red Sea boundary of the combined Gulf/Indian Ocean/Red Sea listed area north to 25.5N (not including Egyptian territorial waters) and deleted Pakistan.","source":"Lloyd's Market Association, Joint War Committee circular JWLA-034","url":"https://lmalloyds.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/JWLA-034-Saudi-Arabia.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jwc_jwla035","date":"2026-09-16","category":"war-risk insurance","claim":"JWC circular JWLA-035 amended only the Black Sea entry. The Middle East listing carried forward unchanged: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE and Yemen, plus the combined Persian/Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea waters.","source":"Lloyd's Market Association, Joint War Committee circular JWLA-035","url":"https://lmalloyds.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/JWLA-035-Black-Sea.pdf","landingUrl":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"ukmto_003_26","date":"2026-02-28","category":"maritime security advisory","claim":"UKMTO Advisory 003-26 (Update 001) reported significant military activity in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz. It said VHF broadcasts claiming the Strait was closed could not be verified and were not legally binding on navigation.","source":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260228-ukmto_advisory_003-26-update_01.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_001_26_threat","date":"2026-03-01","category":"maritime security advisory","claim":"The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) raised the regional maritime threat level from SEVERE to CRITICAL and noted that no formal legal closure of the Strait of Hormuz had been declared.","source":"JMIC Advisory Note 001-26, Update 003 (published by UKMTO)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-003---001---jmic-advisory-note-28_feb_2026_final.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"id":"jmic_004_26_corridor","date":"2026-05-04","category":"maritime security advisory","claim":"JMIC Advisory Note 004-26 described a US enhanced security area for Strait of Hormuz transits south of the Traffic Separation Scheme, via Omani territorial waters. It advised that transit via or near the Traffic Separation Scheme be treated as extremely hazardous because of mines not fully surveyed. The threat level stayed CRITICAL.","source":"JMIC Advisory Note 004-26","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/jmic-advisory-note-004-26.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"illustrativeFreightShareOfValue":{"label":"ILLUSTRATIVE ARITHMETIC - not a measured freight cost","method":"Global air-cargo spot rate (Xeneta, Aug 2026, single cited fact) converted to sterling at the Federal Reserve Aug 2026 average rate, divided by the HMRC value per kg of non-EU IT imports arriving by air (Jan-Jul 2026). The year-on-year rise is Xeneta's stated +24%.","inputs":{"airCargoSpotUsdPerKg":3.13,"source":"Xeneta press release (4 Sep 2026)","url":"https://www.xeneta.com/news/cut-out-the-noise-and-appreciate-air-cargo-s-stability-as-demand-grows-6-year-on-year-in-august","date":"2026-09-04","usdPerGbpAug2026":1.3547,"airCargoSpotGbpPerKg":2.3105},"items":[{"hs4":"8471","description":"Computers and units (automatic data-processing machines)","valuePerKgAirGbp":310.05,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.745,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.144},{"hs4":"8473","description":"Parts and accessories of computers and office machines","valuePerKgAirGbp":477.56,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.484,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.094},{"hs4":"8517","description":"Telephone sets incl. smartphones; network and data-transmission apparatus","valuePerKgAirGbp":518.33,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.446,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.086},{"hs4":"8523","description":"Storage media incl. solid-state (flash/SSD) devices","valuePerKgAirGbp":253.52,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.911,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.176},{"hs4":"8542","description":"Electronic integrated circuits","valuePerKgAirGbp":1332.24,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.173,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.034},{"hs4":"ALL","description":"All five IT headings combined (8471, 8473, 8517, 8523, 8542)","valuePerKgAirGbp":420.97,"freightAsPctOfValue":0.549,"yoyRiseAddsPctPointsOfValue":0.106}],"limitations":["HMRC net mass excludes packaging; air freight is charged on chargeable weight (the greater of gross and volumetric weight), so true freight cost per kg of goods is higher: treat the shares as lower bounds.","A global average spot rate is not a lane rate; contract rates differ; fuel and security surcharges vary.","HMRC values are CIF, so they already include freight to the UK border."]},"methodology":["HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk import files (BDSImp) for Jan 2019 to Jul 2026 were streamed, and every declared-trade record (record type 1) for HS headings 8471, 8473, 8517, 8523 and 8542 was kept. The row-level extract is at raw/freight-trade/hmrc_bds_imports_it_hs4_rows_2019_2026.csv.gz.","Records are aggregated by period-reference month, so late amendments are allocated to the month they relate to. HMRC's own EU/non-EU split is reproduced by grouping countries of dispatch into EU-27 and the rest.","Mode of transport is the HMRC field MODE-OF-TRANSPORT (mode at the UK border). A mode counts as verified only when a port/location code is also recorded. Air share = air value / verified value, bounded below by air / total and above by (air + unverified) / total.","Value per kg = statistical value (GBP, CIF) / net mass (kg), by mode.","Freight index moves compare the latest release with Feb 2026 (monthly) or 2025 Q4 (quarterly), the last full pre-conflict periods."],"gaps":["IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volumes (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Cape of Good Hope) were NOT downloaded or reused. The dataset is licensed under the IMF Copyright and Usage terms (https://www.imf.org/en/about/copyright-and-terms), not CC BY. Its FAQ cites Kpler and the UN Global Platform as sources and asks users to contact copyright@imf.org about commercial redistribution. The general IMF terms also bar systematic or bulk automated download without permission. Republishing it inside a CC BY 4.0 dataset on a commercial site would need written IMF permission. Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transit facts are cited instead from public JMIC/UKMTO advisories.","No monthly Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope transit series from an openly licensed source was found. Only the qualitative JMIC statements on the Suez Canal are included.","ONS SPPI has no UK air-freight index (its H51 air transport index combines passenger and freight), and it is quarterly (latest 2026 Q2, released 22 Jul 2026). US BLS indices are the monthly air-freight comparators.","Eurostat publishes no EU-27 service producer price index for sea freight (H501_H502), road freight (H494) or cargo handling (H5224) in sts_sepp_q. Only H52 (warehousing and transport support) is included as the EU comparator.","The BLS inbound ocean-liner freight index was discontinued in 2008. There is no current official US index of import container freight rates, so US PPI deep-sea freight (a producer index for US-resident carriers) is used instead.","BLS import and export price indices for October 2025 were not published (US federal government shutdown).","HMRC does not collect mode of transport for EU arrivals before January 2022 (Intrastat), so EU mode shares start in 2022. Between 20% and 43% of non-EU IT import value in most months has no recorded port/location. HMRC coded that block as mode 00 (2019-21 and Nov 2022-Jul 2025), mode 10 sea (Jan-Oct 2022) and mode 40 air (from Aug 2025). This analysis treats it as unverified and reports bounds rather than assigning it a mode.","The HMRC mode of transport is the mode at the UK border. Goods shipped from Asia to an EU hub by sea or air and then trucked to the UK appear as roll-on roll-off from the EU. The first leg, and any exposure to Hormuz or the Red Sea on it, cannot be observed.","Goods that only transit Gulf air hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi) keep their original country of dispatch in HMRC data, so dependence on Gulf airspace and hub capacity cannot be measured from trade statistics.","Container and air freight rate series from Drewry, Freightos, TAC Index and Xeneta are proprietary, so only single dated facts from their free press releases are cited. No series was downloaded.","War-risk additional premium rates (percentage of hull value) for Gulf transits in 2026 were not found in a primary, freely licensed source and are omitted.","HMRC July 2026 data (latest month) and earlier recent months are subject to revision as late declarations arrive."]},"runningCost":{"label":"Illustrative arithmetic — not a quote or forecast","desnzNextUpdate":"2026-09-29","formula":"annual cost (GBP) = watts x 8,760 h / 1,000 x PUE x price (p/kWh) / 100","bandRule":"DESNZ price bands are set by the whole site's annual electricity use, not by one piece of equipment. The headline uses the band that matches the load if it were the site's whole consumption: a 10 kW rack at PUE 1.58 uses 138.4 MWh a year, which is in the DESNZ Small (20-499 MWh/yr) band. The all-consumer average is shown for comparison only.","inputs":{"serverIdleWatts":{"value":173.4,"q1":137.3,"q3":271.2,"n":229,"definition":"SERT idle measurement, typical configuration, rack-mount 2-socket non-resilient servers, excluding 2 records reporting 0 W idle (data errors: UCSC-C220-M7, UCSC-C240-M7). With those records included the median would be 171.5 W (n=231).","excludedZeroRecords":2,"source":"U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR Certified Enterprise Servers (Version 4.0), data.energystar.gov dataset qifb-fcj2","url":"https://data.energystar.gov/d/qifb-fcj2","licence":"Public domain (EPA Data License)","licenceUrl":"https://edg.epa.gov/EPA_Data_License.html","file":"raw/analysis/energystar_certified_enterprise_servers.csv","note":"Measured idle power is a floor: a working server draws more. ENERGY STAR v4 records no full-load or typical-utilisation power, and its \"Total Server Power Score\" is not a power draw, so no utilisation is assumed here."},"serverPsuCeilingWatts":{"value":1500,"q1":1000,"q3":2000,"n":221,"definition":"Rated output of one power supply in the typical configuration, redundant-PSU configurations only. With 1+1 redundancy one supply must carry the whole server, so this is a provisioning ceiling, not a draw.","source":"U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR Certified Enterprise Servers","url":"https://data.energystar.gov/d/qifb-fcj2"},"rackWatts":{"value":10000,"definition":"Scenario load chosen for illustration: 10 kW average IT load per rack.","context":"Uptime Institute (press release, 30 Jul 2025) reports growing adoption of racks in the 10-30 kW range.","url":"https://uptimeinstitute.com/about-ui/press-releases/uptimes-15th-annual-global-data-center-survey-results-shows-both-commitment-and-hesitancy"},"pue":[{"pue":1,"label":"IT load only (no facility overhead)","source":null},{"pue":1.47,"label":"Capacity-weighted industry PUE, 2023","source":"Uptime Institute, Intelligence article by J. Davis, 7 Feb 2024","url":"https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/large-data-centers-are-mostly-more-efficient-analysis-confirms/"},{"pue":1.58,"label":"Average industry PUE (per respondent), 2023","source":"Uptime Institute, Intelligence article by J. Davis, 7 Feb 2024","url":"https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/large-data-centers-are-mostly-more-efficient-analysis-confirms/"}],"pueNote":"Uptime Institute describes average PUE as broadly flat since about 2020 (1.55-1.59 in its 7 Feb 2024 article). Small on-premises server rooms are often less efficient; no official UK figure was found.","prices":[{"band":"very_small","label":"Very small (0-20 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_very_small_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":36.10615660019574,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":35.02231745291495,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":34.929067189326574,"recordQuarter":"2025 Q3","record":37.35977389712957,"pctLatestVsPre":-3,"note":"DESNZ flags revisions to the Very Small band from 2024 Q4."},{"band":"small","label":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_small_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":29.569912343950303,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":28.7554234184367,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":29.0924642108215,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":34.57163556188797,"pctLatestVsPre":-2.75},{"band":"small_medium","label":"Small/medium (500-1,999 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_small_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":28.39525769986103,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":28.08280969834578,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":28.2463268790136,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q3","record":32.86286338142106,"pctLatestVsPre":-1.1},{"band":"medium","label":"Medium (2,000-19,999 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":25.35640093091072,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":24.998852422209705,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":25.905176131656233,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q3","record":30.97494457014431,"pctLatestVsPre":-1.41},{"band":"large","label":"Large (20,000-69,999 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_large_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":23.55505713303195,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":23.92546505818944,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":24.40077543199252,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q3","record":29.37720305412184,"pctLatestVsPre":1.57},{"band":"very_large","label":"Very large (70,000-150,000 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_very_large_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":22.51418623248012,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":21.925236872385614,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":22.094776888456032,"recordQuarter":"2024 Q1","record":24.147883876004343,"pctLatestVsPre":-2.62},{"band":"extra_large","label":"Extra large (>150,000 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_extra_large_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":21.128113315428124,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":21.42154625856061,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":21.378912513629512,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":23.268303954029083,"pctLatestVsPre":1.39},{"band":"average","label":"All non-domestic consumers (average)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":23.988279806864902,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":24.14162719917557,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":24.339190374334716,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":28.388321798981593,"pctLatestVsPre":0.64}],"priceSource":"DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices, Table 3.4.2: non-domestic electricity prices including the Climate Change Levy, excluding VAT (published 30 Jun 2026; OGL v3.0).","priceBandNote":"DESNZ bands are by the whole site's annual consumption, not by the equipment. A 10 kW rack at PUE 1.58 uses about 138 MWh a year (the Small (20-499 MWh/yr) band if it were the whole site); a colocation or hyperscale operator buys in the very large or extra large bands and recharges customers on its own terms.","servnetCatalogue":"Servnet's own server catalogue (data/server-specs) records PSU ratings, not measured draw, so it was not used for the power assumption."},"costs":[{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"very_small","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":true,"gbp_preConflict":548.45,"gbp_latest":531.98,"gbp_annual2025":530.57,"gbp_record":567.49,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":449.16,"gbp_latest":436.79,"gbp_annual2025":441.91,"gbp_record":525.14,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"small_medium","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":431.32,"gbp_latest":426.57,"gbp_annual2025":429.06,"gbp_record":499.18,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"medium","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":385.16,"gbp_latest":379.73,"gbp_annual2025":393.5,"gbp_record":470.5,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"large","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":357.8,"gbp_latest":363.42,"gbp_annual2025":370.64,"gbp_record":446.24,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"very_large","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":341.99,"gbp_latest":333.04,"gbp_annual2025":335.62,"gbp_record":366.8,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"extra_large","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":320.93,"gbp_latest":325.39,"gbp_annual2025":324.74,"gbp_record":353.44,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1,"band":"average","kWhPerYear":1519,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":364.38,"gbp_latest":366.71,"gbp_annual2025":369.71,"gbp_record":431.21,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":15.19},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"very_small","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":true,"gbp_preConflict":806.22,"gbp_latest":782.02,"gbp_annual2025":779.93,"gbp_record":834.21,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":660.27,"gbp_latest":642.08,"gbp_annual2025":649.61,"gbp_record":771.95,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"small_medium","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":634.04,"gbp_latest":627.06,"gbp_annual2025":630.71,"gbp_record":733.8,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"medium","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":566.18,"gbp_latest":558.2,"gbp_annual2025":578.44,"gbp_record":691.64,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"large","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":525.96,"gbp_latest":534.23,"gbp_annual2025":544.85,"gbp_record":655.97,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"very_large","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":502.72,"gbp_latest":489.57,"gbp_annual2025":493.36,"gbp_record":539.2,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"extra_large","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":471.77,"gbp_latest":478.32,"gbp_annual2025":477.37,"gbp_record":519.56,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.47,"band":"average","kWhPerYear":2232.9,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":535.64,"gbp_latest":539.06,"gbp_annual2025":543.47,"gbp_record":633.88,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":22.33},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"very_small","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":true,"gbp_preConflict":866.55,"gbp_latest":840.53,"gbp_annual2025":838.3,"gbp_record":896.63,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":709.68,"gbp_latest":690.13,"gbp_annual2025":698.22,"gbp_record":829.72,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"small_medium","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":681.48,"gbp_latest":673.99,"gbp_annual2025":677.91,"gbp_record":788.71,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"medium","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":608.55,"gbp_latest":599.97,"gbp_annual2025":621.72,"gbp_record":743.4,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"large","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":565.32,"gbp_latest":574.21,"gbp_annual2025":585.62,"gbp_record":705.05,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},{"load":"server_idle","watts":173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Contains BMRS data © Elexon Limited copyright and database right 2026.","bands":[{"band":"very_small","label":"Very small (0-20 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2024 Q4","peak":34.17891171840152,"q1_2021":17.414126679176007,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":96.27,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":9,"inLagRange":false,"firstPostShockPeakQuarter":"2023 Q2","firstPostShockPeak":34.013851551488806,"laterHigherQuarters":[["2024 Q4",34.17891171840152],["2025 Q2",37.073931272833974],["2025 Q3",37.35977389712957],["2025 Q4",36.10615660019574],["2026 Q1",35.02231745291495]],"note":"No single post-2022 peak: the band first peaked in 2023 Q2 and later went higher; DESNZ is revising this band from 2024 Q4, so it is left out of the lag range."},{"band":"small","label":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":34.57163556188797,"q1_2021":15.844767684155862,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":118.19,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"small_medium","label":"Small/medium (500-1,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":32.86286338142106,"q1_2021":14.9089854937535,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":120.42,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"medium","label":"Medium (2,000-19,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":30.97494457014431,"q1_2021":13.84328972695657,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":123.75,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"large","label":"Large (20,000-69,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":29.37720305412184,"q1_2021":13.856939764505404,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":112,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"very_large","label":"Very large (70,000-150,000 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2024 Q1","peak":24.147883876004343,"q1_2021":13.048279648356433,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":85.07,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":6,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"extra_large","label":"Extra large (>150,000 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":23.268303954029083,"q1_2021":14.529050992581572,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":60.15,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"average","label":"All non-domestic consumers (average)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":28.388321798981593,"q1_2021":14.805948458905783,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":91.74,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true}],"lagRangeBands":["small","small_medium","medium","large","very_large","extra_large"],"lagRangeQuarters":[4,6],"grade":"C","note":"One episode (2021-23), affected by the EBRS discounts (Oct 2022-Mar 2023) and EBDS (Apr 2023-Mar 2024); the system price is an imbalance price. A historical observation, not a forecast."},"wholesale2026":{"gbElectricitySystemPrice":{"baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":7.953,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":13.093,"pctVsBaseline":64.63},"gbGasSAP":{"baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":2.733,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":5.159,"pctVsBaseline":88.77},"note":"The system price is a balancing (imbalance) price, not the forward price business contracts track; use it for direction only. DESNZ notes that fixed-price contracts delay pass-through; Q2 2026 non-domestic prices are due on 29 Sep 2026."},"headline":{"rack_10kw_pue1_58_bandMatched":{"load":"rack_10kw","watts":10000,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":138408,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":true,"gbp_preConflict":40927.12,"gbp_latest":39799.81,"gbp_annual2025":40266.3,"gbp_record":47849.91,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":1384.08,"bandLabel":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)"},"server_idle_pue1_58_small":{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":709.68,"gbp_latest":690.13,"gbp_annual2025":698.22,"gbp_record":829.72,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},"per_100w_pue1_58_small":{"load":"per_100w","watts":100,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":1384.1,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":409.27,"gbp_latest":398,"gbp_annual2025":402.66,"gbp_record":478.5,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":13.84},"rack_10kw_pue1_58_average_forComparison":{"load":"rack_10kw","watts":10000,"pue":1.58,"band":"average","kWhPerYear":138408,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":33201.7,"gbp_latest":33413.94,"gbp_annual2025":33687.39,"gbp_record":39291.71,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":1384.08},"rack_10kw_pue1_58_extra_large_forComparison":{"load":"rack_10kw","watts":10000,"pue":1.58,"band":"extra_large","kWhPerYear":138408,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":29243,"gbp_latest":29649.13,"gbp_annual2025":29590.13,"gbp_record":32205.19,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":1384.08},"order":"Band-matched figures first; the all-consumer average is shown only for comparison."}},"exposure":[{"input":"Oil through the Strait of Hormuz","whyItMattersForIT":"Oil is an input to freight, to energy used in manufacturing and to power markets; this study tests which IT prices have moved with it.","globalShareOrFlow":20.261741721311477,"unit":"million barrels per day (2024 average; EIA describes this as about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption)","year":2024,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 16 June 2025 (figure data; analysis based on Vortexa)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"Oil through the Strait of Hormuz (share of seaborne trade)","whyItMattersForIT":"Same exposure measured against seaborne trade, the relevant base for shipping and insurance costs.","globalShareOrFlow":"more than one-quarter","unit":"share of total global seaborne oil trade (2024 and 1Q25)","year":2024,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 16 June 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"LNG through the Strait of Hormuz","whyItMattersForIT":"Gas-fired generation matters for electricity costs where chips are made: natural gas generated 43% of Taiwan's electricity in 2024 (EIA, Taiwan Analysis Brief, April 2026).","globalShareOrFlow":20,"unit":"percent of global LNG trade (2024); Qatar ~9.3 Bcf/d and UAE ~0.7 Bcf/d","year":2024,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 24 June 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65584","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Destination of Hormuz crude","whyItMattersForIT":"EIA estimates that 84% of Hormuz crude and condensate went to Asian markets in 2024, so the direct exposure sits mainly with Asian importers rather than the UK or US.","globalShareOrFlow":84,"unit":"percent of Hormuz crude and condensate going to Asian markets (China, India, Japan and South Korea together 69%)","year":2024,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 16 June 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Destination of Hormuz LNG","whyItMattersForIT":"EIA estimates that 83% of Hormuz LNG went to Asian markets in 2024.","globalShareOrFlow":83,"unit":"percent of Hormuz LNG going to Asian markets (China, India and South Korea together 52%)","year":2024,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 24 June 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65584","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"LNG via Hormuz delivered to Taiwan","whyItMattersForIT":"Taiwan is a major centre for advanced semiconductor manufacturing; natural gas generated 43% of its electricity in 2024 (EIA, Taiwan Analysis Brief, April 2026).","globalShareOrFlow":0.7805242658941945,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day (2024)","year":2024,"source":"EIA figure data, Today in Energy 24 June 2025 (Vortexa-based)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2025.06.24/fig2.xlsx","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"LNG via Hormuz delivered to South Korea","whyItMattersForIT":"South Korea is a major centre for memory-chip (DRAM and NAND) production.","globalShareOrFlow":1.2080849080960632,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day (2024)","year":2024,"source":"EIA figure data, Today in Energy 24 June 2025 (Vortexa-based)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2025.06.24/fig2.xlsx","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"LNG via Hormuz delivered to China","whyItMattersForIT":"China is a major final-assembly location for servers, PCs and networking equipment.","globalShareOrFlow":2.4549604506422646,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day (2024)","year":2024,"source":"EIA figure data, Today in Energy 24 June 2025 (Vortexa-based)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2025.06.24/fig2.xlsx","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"Hormuz bypass pipeline capacity","whyItMattersForIT":"Limits how much Gulf oil can still reach markets if the strait is shut.","globalShareOrFlow":2.6,"unit":"million barrels per day of Saudi and UAE pipeline capacity estimated available to bypass Hormuz","year":2025,"source":"EIA, Today in Energy, 16 June 2025","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Japan crude oil: Middle East dependence","whyItMattersForIT":"Japan is a major supplier of chip materials and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.","globalShareOrFlow":94,"unit":"percent of crude imports from the Middle East (Hormuz-routed: 93.0%)","year":2025,"source":"METI/ANRE, 27 March 2026 briefing (from Ministry of Finance trade statistics)","url":"https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/jisedai_kiban/pdf/005_07_00.pdf","licence":"Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required"},{"input":"Japan LNG: Middle East dependence","whyItMattersForIT":"LNG supplied about 32% of Japan's electricity generation in FY2024 (preliminary; METI/ANRE briefing, 27 Mar 2026).","globalShareOrFlow":10.8,"unit":"percent of LNG imports from the Middle East (Hormuz-routed: 6.3%, about 4 million tonnes of 64.98 million tonnes)","year":2025,"source":"METI/ANRE, 27 March 2026 briefing (from Ministry of Finance trade statistics)","url":"https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/jisedai_kiban/pdf/005_07_00.pdf","licence":"Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required"},{"input":"South Korea crude oil: Middle East dependence","whyItMattersForIT":"South Korea is a major centre for memory-chip production.","globalShareOrFlow":69.12461932783896,"unit":"percent of crude imports (volume) from the Middle East (2024: 71.52%)","year":2025,"source":"Korea National Oil Corporation, \"Domestic crude oil imports by country\" (Korea Public Data Portal dataset 15054606, data.go.kr; derived by Servnet)","url":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15054606/fileData.do","licence":"Korea Public Data Portal file data; permitted-use scope stated as unrestricted (이용허락범위: 제한 없음) - attribute Korea National Oil Corporation","derived":true,"formula":"Middle East kbbl / all-country kbbl x 100"},{"input":"Taiwan crude oil: Middle East producers","whyItMattersForIT":"Taiwan's 2026 electricity price review cited higher fuel prices as the main reason for a warranted 12.83% tariff increase (Taiwan MOEA, 18 Sep 2026).","globalShareOrFlow":69.63145521499254,"unit":"percent of crude imports (volume) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Oman (excluding Oman: 61.71%)","year":2025,"source":"Taiwan Energy Administration, MOEA (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://data.gov.tw/en/datasets/161212","licence":"Open Government Data License, version 1.0 (Taiwan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution required","derived":true,"formula":"sum of named Middle East producers / total x 100 over 12 months of 2025"},{"input":"Taiwan LNG: Qatar share","whyItMattersForIT":"Taiwan generated 43% of its electricity from natural gas in 2024; gas stocks are held for days rather than months.","globalShareOrFlow":33,"unit":"percent of Taiwan LNG imports from Qatar (Australia 34%, US 10%)","year":2025,"source":"EIA Taiwan Analysis Brief, April 2026 (Vortexa data)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_short/Taiwan/Taiwan.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Taiwan natural gas safety stock (statutory)","whyItMattersForIT":"The statutory minimum gas stock for power generation, including supply to chip plants (Taiwan MOEA Energy Administration).","globalShareOrFlow":11,"unit":"days of statutory gas safety stock (2025), rising to 14 days from 2027","year":2025,"source":"Taiwan MOEA Energy Administration","url":"https://www.moeaea.gov.tw/ECW/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=8748","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required"},{"input":"Taiwan naphtha feedstock from the Gulf","whyItMattersForIT":"Naphtha is the feedstock for plastics used in device housings, cable insulation and packaging.","unit":"Naphtha was 60% of Taiwan petroleum-product imports in 2025; of naphtha imports, UAE 18% and Qatar 6% (Russia 49%)","year":2025,"source":"EIA Taiwan Analysis Brief, April 2026 (Vortexa data)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_short/Taiwan/Taiwan.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA."},{"input":"China crude oil via Hormuz","whyItMattersForIT":"China is a major assembly base for servers, PCs and network equipment.","globalShareOrFlow":43.10527603012849,"unit":"percent of China crude imports that transited Hormuz (4.78 of 11.1 million b/d)","year":2024,"source":"EIA (Hormuz destinations: Today in Energy 16 June 2025; China imports: Today in Energy 11 Feb 2025) - derived by Servnet","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2025.06.16/fig3.xlsx","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","derived":true,"formula":"EIA Hormuz crude to China 2024 / EIA China crude imports 2024 x 100 (two EIA sources; bases may differ slightly)"},{"input":"Helium: Qatar share of world production","whyItMattersForIT":"Helium is used in semiconductor fabs for wafer cooling, leak detection and controlled atmospheres; in the US, controlled atmospheres, fibre optics and semiconductors took 17% of helium use in 2025.","globalShareOrFlow":33.1578947368421,"unit":"percent of world helium production (63 of 190 million m3; 2024: 34.97%, 64 of 183)","year":2025,"source":"USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","derived":true,"formula":"Qatar / world total (rounded) x 100"},{"input":"Helium: Qatar share of US helium imports","whyItMattersForIT":"US comparator for helium import dependence.","globalShareOrFlow":28,"unit":"percent of US helium imports from Qatar, 2021-24 (Canada 47%)","year":"2021-2024","source":"USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Helium: Qatar resources","whyItMattersForIT":"Long-run supply concentration.","globalShareOrFlow":10.1,"unit":"billion cubic metres of identified helium resources in Qatar - the largest outside the US (world ex-US 31.3)","year":2025,"source":"USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Helium: UK imports dispatched from the Gulf","whyItMattersForIT":"UK comparator; EU hubs (Germany, France) dominate UK helium dispatch, so direct Gulf dispatch understates Gulf origin.","globalShareOrFlow":14.39921855389325,"unit":"percent of UK helium import value dispatched from GCC states (Qatar alone: 4.31%)","year":2025,"source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","derived":true},{"input":"Primary aluminium: Bahrain and UAE share of world smelter production","whyItMattersForIT":"Aluminium goes into server chassis and rails, racks, heatsinks and enclosures.","globalShareOrFlow":5.810810810810811,"unit":"percent of world primary aluminium smelter production, 2025 estimate (Bahrain 1,600 + UAE 2,700 of 74,000 thousand tonnes). Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are not listed separately by USGS (they sit inside \"Other countries\"), so this understates the GCC total.","year":2025,"source":"U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Aluminum (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-aluminum.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","derived":true,"formula":"(Bahrain + United Arab Emirates smelter production, 2025e) / world total (rounded) x 100"},{"input":"Primary aluminium: UK imports dispatched from the Gulf","whyItMattersForIT":"UK comparator for chassis and rack metal supply; measured by weight (net mass).","globalShareOrFlow":30.973778905228112,"unit":"percent of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (net mass, HS 7601) dispatched from GCC states","year":2025,"source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","derived":true},{"input":"Primary aluminium: US import sources","whyItMattersForIT":"US comparator.","globalShareOrFlow":12,"unit":"percent of US aluminium imports from UAE (8%) and Bahrain (4%), 2021-24","year":"2021-2024","source":"USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-aluminum.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","asStatedBySource":true},{"input":"Sulfur: Gulf share of world production","whyItMattersForIT":"Sulfur is converted to sulfuric acid, a bulk industrial chemical; high-purity grades are used in electronics wet processing. USGS measures sulfur production, not electronics-grade acid supply, so this is an upstream indicator only.","globalShareOrFlow":23.809523809523807,"unit":"percent of world sulfur production from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran (GCC four only: 21.31%)","year":2025,"source":"USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); credit USGS","derived":true},{"input":"Polyethylene and polypropylene: UK imports dispatched from the Gulf","whyItMattersForIT":"Polymers are used in device housings, cable jackets and packaging. No free official source quantifies the Gulf share of world polymer exports; UK import data are used instead.","globalShareOrFlow":6.05251362253595,"unit":"percent of UK PE + PP import mass (HS 3901-3902) dispatched from GCC states","year":2025,"source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet)","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","derived":true},{"input":"Gulf cloud regions (AWS)","whyItMattersForIT":"Workloads hosted in Gulf cloud regions for latency or data-residency reasons are exposed to physical damage to local facilities.","unit":"AWS Middle East (UAE) me-central-1 has three Availability Zones (mec1-az1/az2/az3); AWS Middle East (Bahrain) me-south-1 is a separate Region","year":2026,"source":"AWS Health Dashboard","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced"}],"exposure2026":[{"measure":"Oil through the Strait of Hormuz (EIA estimate, million b/d)","before":21.6,"beforePeriod":"2025 Q4","during":4.9,"duringPeriod":"2026 Q2","changePct":-77.31,"source":"U.S. EIA, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026), Table 2 (EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking). EIA estimate; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026."},{"measure":"LNG through the Strait of Hormuz (EIA estimate, Bcf/d)","before":10.5,"beforePeriod":"2025 Q4","during":0.8,"duringPeriod":"2026 Q2","changePct":-92.38,"source":"U.S. EIA, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026), Table 2 (EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking). EIA estimate; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026."},{"measure":"Oil through the Strait of Malacca, the route to East Asian electronics hubs (EIA estimate, million b/d)","before":24.9,"beforePeriod":"2025 Q4","during":16.6,"duringPeriod":"2026 Q2","changePct":-33.33,"source":"U.S. EIA, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026), Table 2 (EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking). EIA estimate; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026.","note":"EIA's Strait of Malacca detail table (Table 3) gives 24.0 million b/d for 2025 Q4, a fall of about 30.8% to 2026 Q2; its own components (crude 18.0 + products 6.9) sum to 24.9, the Table 2 value used here (a fall of about 33.3%). The fall is best quoted as about 31-33%.","changePctTable3":-30.83},{"measure":"Japan: Middle East share of crude imports (%)","before":94.2096922208434,"beforePeriod":"2026-02","reference2025":93.51702222061252,"during":58.852603223463184,"duringPeriod":"2026-07","lowSinceBaseline":{"date":"2026-07","value":58.852603223463184},"changePts":-35.36,"source":"出典: 石油統計 (経済産業省) (https://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/tyo/sekiyuka/), processed by Servnet (monthly kl volumes combined from three issues of the confirmed time-series table; Middle East shares calculated by Servnet); the processed figures are not published by the Government of Japan in this form. Public Data License 1.0."},{"measure":"Taiwan: Middle East share of crude imports (%)","before":69.63145521499254,"beforePeriod":"2025 (volume-weighted: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, Oman / total)","during":69.74265053117938,"duringPeriod":"2026-07","lowSinceBaseline":{"date":"2026-04","value":34.53576542140852},"source":"Derived by Servnet. Energy Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs (經濟部能源署), 2026, Monthly Data on Crude Oil Import Sources (原油進口來源月資料), data.gov.tw dataset 161212, version as retrieved 19 Sep 2026. The Open Data is made available to the public under the Open Government Data License, User can make use of it when complying to the condition and obligation of its terms. Open Government Data License: https://data.gov.tw/license"},{"measure":"UK unwrought aluminium imports dispatched from GCC states (% by weight, net mass)","basis":"by weight (net mass)","before":50.94253774694448,"beforePeriod":"2026-02","during":28.364653114242245,"duringPeriod":"2026-07","april2026":15.324080838385196,"lowSinceBaseline":{"date":"2026-06","value":14.182110535206576},"lowestSince":"2023-06","lowestSinceValue":11.955389131626292,"range2023to2025":[11.955389131626292,46.695456811690974],"reference2025":30.973778905228112,"baselineNote":"January-February 2026 (about 50%) were at the top of the 2023-25 monthly range, so the February 2026 value is not used as the comparison point.","source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0."},{"measure":"UK polyethylene/polypropylene imports dispatched from GCC states (% by weight, net mass)","before":5.937964496684145,"beforePeriod":"2026-02","during":3.1298748883005163,"duringPeriod":"2026-07","reference2025":6.05251362253595,"source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0."},{"measure":"UK helium imports dispatched directly from Qatar (HS 28042910)","zeroMonthsSinceBaseline":["2026-02","2026-03","2026-04","2026-05","2026-06","2026-07"],"zeroMonthsByYear":{"2019":{"zeroMonths":2,"monthsInData":12},"2020":{"zeroMonths":0,"monthsInData":12},"2021":{"zeroMonths":4,"monthsInData":12},"2022":{"zeroMonths":5,"monthsInData":12},"2023":{"zeroMonths":4,"monthsInData":12},"2024":{"zeroMonths":10,"monthsInData":12},"2025":{"zeroMonths":3,"monthsInData":12},"2026":{"zeroMonths":6,"monthsInData":7}},"qatarShare2025Pct":4.31,"source":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.","note":"Dispatch country, not origin: Qatari helium routed via EU hubs is recorded against the hub. Months with no direct Qatar dispatch are common (ten in 2024), and February 2026 is a pre-conflict month, so the 2026 zero months are not evidence of a change."}],"exposureEvents2026":[{"date":"2026-02-28","fact":"Taiwan MOEA dates the start of the conflict involving the United States and Iran to 28 February 2026.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=123979","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"timeline"},{"date":"2026-02-28","fact":"EIA reports that from the end of February 2026 ship-tracking (AIS) data for Hormuz transits became especially unreliable, so 2026 Hormuz volumes are estimates revised frequently.","source":"EIA STEO Energy Security Data Supplement, 12 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"data-quality"},{"date":"2026-03-01","fact":"AWS reported a power and connectivity event in one Availability Zone (mec1-az2) of its UAE Region (me-central-1); later that day AWS said objects had struck the data centre, causing sparks and fire, and the fire service cut power to the facility.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, me-central-1 event log (updates 12:51-17:41 UTC)","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud","region":"me-central-1"},{"date":"2026-03-02","fact":"A second UAE Availability Zone (mec1-az3) was affected; AWS said new instance launches were not possible anywhere in me-central-1 and S3 and DynamoDB showed significant error rates. AWS advised customers to enact disaster-recovery plans and recover into other AWS Regions, ideally in Europe.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, me-central-1 event log (06:46-14:22 UTC)","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud","region":"me-central-1"},{"date":"2026-03-02","fact":"AWS reported a power issue in one Availability Zone (mes1-az2) of its Bahrain Region (me-south-1) and recommended launching replacement resources in other zones or Regions.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, me-south-1 event log","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud","region":"me-south-1"},{"date":"2026-03-02","fact":"QatarEnergy stopped producing LNG and associated products after attacks on its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities. Associated products include helium, which Qatar recovers from LNG processing.","source":"QatarEnergy news release","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3892","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"lng-helium"},{"date":"2026-03-02","fact":"Taiwan MOEA set up an energy emergency response group (2 March). It said Qatar had paused Ras Laffan LNG output as a precaution, that short-term supply was secure, and that it had a three-stage fallback: bring cargoes forward from non-Middle East suppliers, swap with Asian buyers, and buy spot. Taipower was told to prepare backup generation.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 3 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=122008","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"power-supply","country":"Taiwan"},{"date":"2026-03-03","fact":"AWS stated that drone strikes had physically affected both Gulf Regions: two UAE facilities were struck directly and a strike near a Bahrain facility caused physical impacts, with structural damage, power disruption and water damage from fire suppression.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, joint update 00:19 UTC","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud"},{"date":"2026-03-03","fact":"QatarEnergy stopped some downstream production in Qatar, including polymers, aluminium, methanol and urea.","source":"QatarEnergy news release","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3893","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium-polymers"},{"date":"2026-03-04","fact":"QatarEnergy declared force majeure to affected LNG buyers.","source":"QatarEnergy news release","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3894","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"lng-helium"},{"date":"2026-03-09","fact":"EIA said Brent settled at USD 94/b on 9 March, about 50% above the start of the year, as Hormuz shipments fell and some Middle East output was shut in. (Historical price as stated by EIA, not a forecast.)","source":"EIA press release, 10 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press584.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"oil"},{"date":"2026-03-10","fact":"Japan held a public-private liaison meeting on power, gas and LNG supply after Qatar's LNG production stop. Utilities said stable supply was not immediately affected.","source":"METI/ANRE briefing, 27 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/jisedai_kiban/pdf/005_07_00.pdf","licence":"Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required","category":"power-supply","country":"Japan"},{"date":"2026-03-15","fact":"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) began a controlled shutdown of Reduction Lines 1-3, which make up 19% of its 1,623,000 t/yr capacity. Alba said this was to preserve continuity during supply and transit disruption at the Strait of Hormuz.","source":"Alba news release, 15 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-initiates-a-controlled-and-safe-shutdown-of-reduction-lines-1-2-and-3","licence":"Copyright Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C.; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-03-16","fact":"Japan began releasing 15 days of private-sector oil stocks and one month of state crude reserves; METI said the IEA had agreed a coordinated release of more than 400 million barrels, the largest in its history.","source":"METI briefing, 24 Mar 2026 (Cabinet Secretariat meeting material)","url":"https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/chyutoujyousei/dai1/pdf/siryou4.pdf","licence":"Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required","category":"oil","country":"Japan"},{"date":"2026-03-19","fact":"QatarEnergy said damage at Ras Laffan (strikes of 18-19 March) had taken out LNG Trains 4 and 6: 12.8 million t/yr, about 17% of Qatar's LNG exports. Repairs were expected to take three to five years, with long-term force majeure of up to five years on some contracts; the markets named were China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium.","source":"QatarEnergy news release, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3897","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"lng-helium","values":{"lng_mtpa":12.8,"share_of_qatar_lng_exports_pct":17}},{"date":"2026-03-19","fact":"QatarEnergy listed associated output lost to the outage, including helium of 309.54 million cubic feet a year (about 14% of Qatar's helium exports), 0.18 million tonnes of sulfur (about 6%), 0.594 million tonnes of naphtha (about 6%) and 1.281 million tonnes of LPG (about 13%). One of the two Pearl GTL trains was expected to be offline for at least a year.","source":"QatarEnergy news release, 19 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3897","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"lng-helium","values":{"helium_mcf_per_year":309.54,"helium_share_pct":14,"sulfur_mt":0.18,"naphtha_mt":0.594,"lpg_mt":1.281},"servnetCrossCheck":"309.54 million cubic feet is about 8.6 million m3, using the USGS conversion of 27.737 m3 = 1,000 ft3. That is about 14% of Qatar's estimated 2025 helium output of 63 million m3 (USGS MCS 2026), matching the stated share. It is about 4.5% of estimated 2025 world output (190 million m3)."},{"date":"2026-03-28","fact":"EGA said strikes on Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi on 28 March caused significant damage at its Al Taweelah site, which went into emergency shutdown, and that restoring full primary aluminium production might take as long as a year (company's stated expectation). Al Taweelah produced 1.6 million t of cast metal in 2025.","source":"EGA news release, 3 Apr 2026","url":"https://media.ega.ae/update-on-egas-al-taweelah-site/","licence":"Copyright Emirates Global Aluminium; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-03-28","fact":"Alba said its facility in Bahrain was attacked on 28 March 2026 and that it was assessing the damage.","source":"Alba news release, 29 Mar 2026","url":"https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-facility-was-subject-to-an-iranian-attack-on-saturday-28-march-2026","licence":"Copyright Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C.; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-04","fact":"EIA estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain together shut in 7.5 million b/d of crude oil production in March 2026 and 10.5 million b/d in April 2026.","source":"EIA press releases, 7 Apr and 12 May 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press588.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"oil","values":{"shut_in_mbd_2026-03":7.5,"shut_in_mbd_2026-04":10.5}},{"date":"2026-04","fact":"Japan's crude oil imports fell to 4.07 million kl in April 2026 against 11.87 million kl in April 2025, and the Middle East share fell to 87.6%. By July 2026 imports were 11.72 million kl with a Middle East share of 58.9%, as North American supply rose to 4.34 million kl.","source":"METI Petroleum Statistics (derived shares)","url":"https://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/tyo/sekiyuka/xls/se202607kakji.xlsx","licence":"Public Data License v1.0 (PDL1.0, Japan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution and note of processing required","category":"oil","country":"Japan","derived":true},{"date":"2026-04","fact":"Taiwan recorded no crude imports from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait in April 2026 and none from Kuwait in May-July 2026. The US supplied 58% of April 2026 crude imports by volume. The share from Middle East producers fell to 34.5% in April 2026 (2025: 69.6%) and was back to 69.7% by July 2026.","source":"Taiwan Energy Administration, crude import sources (derived)","url":"https://data.gov.tw/en/datasets/161212","licence":"Open Government Data License, version 1.0 (Taiwan; CC BY 4.0-compatible) - attribution required","category":"oil","country":"Taiwan","derived":true},{"date":"2026-04-07","fact":"EIA said lower LNG flows through Hormuz had cut global LNG supply and sharply widened the gap between the US Henry Hub price and European and Asian import prices. US LNG export plants were running near peak, exporting almost 18 Bcf/d in March 2026.","source":"EIA press release, 7 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"lng"},{"date":"2026-04-07","fact":"EIA reported Brent spot reaching USD 138/b on 7 April and averaging USD 117/b in April 2026. (Historical price, not a forecast.)","source":"EIA press release, 12 May 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press588.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"oil"},{"date":"2026-04-14","fact":"Taiwan MOEA said there had been no gas or power shortages in the 46 days since the conflict began. It said gas supply for April-May was fully arranged and June nearly so, and noted Taiwan requires at least 11 days of gas safety stock (14 days from 2027) against 9 days in South Korea.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 14 Apr 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=122393","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"power-supply","country":"Taiwan"},{"date":"2026-04-30","fact":"AWS said me-central-1 (UAE) could not reliably support customer applications and advised customers to migrate all accessible resources to other Regions. It said me-south-1 (Bahrain) was unavailable. Billing was suspended for both, with restoration expected to take several months (AWS's stated expectation).","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, updates of 30 Apr 2026","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud"},{"date":"2026-05-08","fact":"Taiwan MOEA said there had been no gas or power shortages in the 70 days since the conflict began and that gas supply was assessed as secure through September.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 8 May 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=122649","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"power-supply","country":"Taiwan"},{"date":"2026-05-12","fact":"Alba reported Q1 2026 net finished production of 339,734 t (-14% YoY) and sales of 312,563 t (-17% YoY), citing shipping constraints including through the Strait of Hormuz.","source":"Alba Q1 2026 results release","url":"https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-reports-its-financial-results-for-the-first-quarter-of-2026","licence":"Copyright Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C.; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-06","fact":"The GCC-dispatched share of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (net mass) fell to 15.3% in April and 14.2% in June, the lowest since June 2023, before returning to 28.4% in July (2025: 31.0%; 2023-25 monthly range 12%-47%).","source":"HMRC OTS (derived)","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","category":"uk-trade","derived":true,"basis":"by weight (net mass)"},{"date":"2026-06-09","fact":"EIA said Middle Eastern producers had cut output by more than 11 million b/d, with OECD oil inventories at their lowest since 2003.","source":"EIA press release, 9 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press589.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"oil"},{"date":"2026-06-17","fact":"The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that sought, among other things, to resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. EIA dates it 17 June in Today in Energy and 18 June in its July STEO press release. EIA recorded renewed strikes in the first two weeks of July.","source":"EIA Today in Energy, 15 Jul 2026; EIA press release, 7 Jul 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"timeline"},{"date":"2026-06-21","fact":"QatarEnergy reported an operational incident during the start-up of operations at Ras Laffan Industrial City (Barzan local gas supply facility). This indicates restart work was under way.","source":"QatarEnergy news release, 21 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3909","licence":"Copyright QatarEnergy; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"lng-helium"},{"date":"2026-06-30","fact":"EIA estimated oil flows through Hormuz at 4.9 million b/d in 2Q26, against 21.6 in 4Q25 and 14.9 in 1Q26, and LNG flows at 0.8 Bcf/d against 10.5 in 4Q25. It estimated oil through the Strait of Malacca at 16.6 million b/d in 2Q26 against 24.9 in 4Q25 (Table 2). EIA estimates; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026.","source":"EIA STEO Energy Security Data Supplement, 12 Aug 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"shipping","period":"2026-Q2","note":"EIA's Strait of Malacca detail table (Table 3) gives 24.0 million b/d for 4Q25 (a fall of about 30.8%); its own components (crude 18.0 + products 6.9) sum to 24.9, the Table 2 value (a fall of about 33.3%). The fall is best quoted as about 31-33%."},{"date":"2026-07","fact":"HMRC recorded no UK helium imports dispatched directly from Qatar in February to July 2026. Such months are common: there were ten months with none in 2024. Qatar was the dispatch country for 4.3% of UK helium import value in 2025.","source":"HMRC OTS (derived)","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","category":"uk-trade","derived":true,"period":"2026-02/2026-07"},{"date":"2026-07-02","fact":"EGA said the first restored reduction cell at Al Taweelah restarted on 26 May, with 89 of 1,262 cells restarted by 2 July. The Casthouse produced first metal on 4 May.","source":"EGA news release, 2 Jul 2026","url":"https://media.ega.ae/ega-reports-strong-early-progress-in-al-taweelah-restart-and-updates-on-business-performance/","licence":"Copyright Emirates Global Aluminium; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-08-04","fact":"Alba reported Q2 2026 sales of 280,799 t (-32% YoY) because of regional shipping and logistics disruption, and said it had adjusted production to raw-material availability.","source":"Alba H1 2026 results release","url":"https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-discloses-its-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-and-h1-of-2026","licence":"Copyright Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C.; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-08-12","fact":"EGA reported H1 2026 cast metal production of 1,006 kt (H1 2025: 1,420 kt, -29%), alumina production of 602 kt (-47%) and aluminium sales of 939 kt (-32%). It said alternative logistics routes outside the Strait of Hormuz kept raw materials and customer shipments moving.","source":"EGA H1 2026 results release","url":"https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/","licence":"Copyright Emirates Global Aluminium; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-08-26","fact":"EGA said 315 of 1,262 reduction cells at Al Taweelah (25%) had restarted and the alumina refinery was at around 50% capacity, and that it expected full production in Q1 2027 (company's stated expectation).","source":"EGA news release, 26 Aug 2026","url":"https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/","licence":"Copyright Emirates Global Aluminium; facts cited with attribution, not reproduced","category":"aluminium"},{"date":"2026-09-09","fact":"EIA estimated that global oil inventories had fallen by about 400 million barrels so far in 2026.","source":"EIA press release, 9 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press592.php","licence":"Public domain (U.S. Government work); EIA asks for acknowledgement with publication date. Chokepoint volumes are EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, published by EIA.","category":"oil"},{"date":"2026-09-15","fact":"AWS said it could not restore resources and data hosted only in the UAE zone mec1-az2 and was still recovering the other affected UAE zones. For Bahrain (me-south-1) it said damage spanned several Availability Zones, a second zone was disrupted in April, and data held only in that Region could not be restored; its next update is due in early 2027.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard, updates of 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud"},{"date":"2026-09-15","fact":"Taiwan MOEA said oil and gas supply was secure to year-end, stocks were above the same point in 2025 and first-quarter 2027 purchasing was already planned. It noted shipping through both straits had fallen sharply.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 15 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=123979","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"power-supply","country":"Taiwan"},{"date":"2026-09-18","fact":"Taiwan's electricity price review found Taipower's costs warranted a 12.83% tariff increase, mainly because of higher fuel prices. Taipower absorbed about NT$71.1 billion of fuel costs from March to August. The decision was deferred to December pending a government budget top-up. MOEA noted fast growth in electricity demand from semiconductors and AI.","source":"Taiwan MOEA press release, 18 Sep 2026","url":"https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/populace/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=40&news_id=124013","licence":"Taiwan MOEA website content released under the Open Government Data License v1.0 (MOEA open-data declaration) - attribution required","category":"power-cost","country":"Taiwan"},{"date":"2026-09-19","fact":"Snapshot: the AWS Health Dashboard event \"multipleservices-me-central-1\" listed 140 services, 135 of them with current status code 3 and 5 with code 0.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard public current-events feed (retrieved 19 Sep 2026)","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/public/currentevents","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud","note":"AWS does not label the codes in the feed. Code 3 is the highest level used in this event."},{"date":"2026-09-19","fact":"Snapshot: the AWS Health Dashboard event \"multipleservices-me-south-1\" listed 149 services, 144 of them with current status code 3 and 5 with code 0.","source":"AWS Health Dashboard public current-events feed (retrieved 19 Sep 2026)","url":"https://health.aws.amazon.com/public/currentevents","licence":"Copyright Amazon Web Services; facts cited and paraphrased with attribution, not reproduced","category":"cloud","note":"AWS does not label the codes in the feed. Code 3 is the highest level used in this event."},{"date":"2026-09-19","fact":"Google Cloud's public Service Health page said \"No broad severe incidents\" at 04:32 PDT on 19 Sep 2026. Its Middle East page lists me-central1 (Doha) and me-central2 (Dammam), and the retrieved public incident history contained no incident naming these regions.","source":"Google Cloud Service Health","url":"https://status.cloud.google.com/regional/middle-east","licence":"Copyright Google; status observation cited, not reproduced","category":"cloud","note":"A snapshot only. It does not show that no customer impact occurred."}],"confounders":[{"type":"memory","date":"2026-02-26","publisher":"TrendForce (press release, 26 Feb 2026)","sourceType":"industry analyst press release","url":"https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260226-12937.html","fact":"Reported that conventional DRAM contract prices rose 45-50% quarter on quarter in 4Q25.","sourceLabel":"TrendForce, 26 Feb 2026"},{"type":"memory","date":"2026-06-01","publisher":"TrendForce (press release, 1 Jun 2026)","sourceType":"industry analyst press release","url":"https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260601-13070.html","fact":"Reported that conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93-98% quarter on quarter in 1Q26.","sourceLabel":"TrendForce, 1 Jun 2026"},{"type":"memory","date":"2026-06-24","publisher":"Micron Technology (earnings press release, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1)","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000723125/000072312526000013/a2026q3ex991-pressrelease.htm","fact":"Fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter to 28 May 2026) revenue US$41.456bn, against US$23.860bn in the prior quarter and US$9.301bn a year earlier.","sourceLabel":"Micron Technology, 24 Jun 2026"},{"type":"memory","date":"2026-06","publisher":"Micron Technology (Form 10-Q, MD&A)","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000015/mu-20260528.htm","fact":"DRAM sales rose 67% quarter on quarter, mainly from average selling prices up in the low-60% range (bit shipments up low single digits); NAND sales rose 99%, mainly from ASPs up in the mid-80% range.","period":"quarter to 28 May 2026","sourceLabel":"Micron Technology, Form 10-Q (quarter to 28 May 2026), Jun 2026"},{"type":"memory","date":"2026-07-29","publisher":"SK hynix (newsroom results release)","sourceType":"company press release","url":"https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/","fact":"2Q26 revenue KRW 79.3187tn (+257% YoY) and operating profit KRW 60.5426tn (+557% YoY); the company said DRAM and NAND prices both rose significantly quarter on quarter and that customer demand exceeded supply.","sourceLabel":"SK hynix, 29 Jul 2026"},{"type":"memory","date":"2026-07-30","publisher":"Samsung Electronics (newsroom results release)","sourceType":"company press release","url":"https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results","fact":"2Q26 consolidated revenue KRW 171.5tn (+28% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 89.5tn; the memory business cited an industry-wide upward price trend.","sourceLabel":"Samsung Electronics, 30 Jul 2026"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2025-04-02","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"Executive Office of the President (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/07/2025-06063/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and","citation":"Executive Order 14257, 90 FR 15041 (published 2025-04-07)","fact":"Established 'reciprocal' tariffs on US imports under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).","sourceLabel":"Executive Office of the President, 2 Apr 2025"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2025-04-11","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"The White House","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/clarification-of-exceptions-under-executive-order-14257-of-april-2-2025-as-amended/","citation":"Memorandum: Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, as Amended","fact":"Excluded computers (HTS 8471), computer parts (847330), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (8486), smartphones (85171300), network equipment (85176200), solid-state storage (85235100), flat-panel display modules (8524), monitors (85285200) and semiconductors (8541, 8542) from the reciprocal tariffs, retroactive to 5 April 2025.","sourceLabel":"The White House, 11 Apr 2025"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2025-04-16","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/16/2025-06591/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-section-232-national-security-investigation-of-imports-of","citation":"90 FR 15950, document 2025-06591","fact":"Notice of a Section 232 national-security investigation into imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and derivative products (including downstream electronics); comments were due 7 May 2025.","sourceLabel":"US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, 16 Apr 2025"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2026-01-14","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"The White House (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/adjusting-imports-of-semiconductors-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-and-their-derivative-products-into-the-united-states/","citation":"Proclamation 11002, 91 FR 2443 (published 2026-01-20)","fact":"Imposed a 25% Section 232 duty from 15 January 2026 on certain advanced computing chips and derivative products meeting set technical thresholds, with exemptions including imports for US data centres, US R&D, start-ups, repairs, consumer and civil industrial uses and the US public sector. Commerce was to report on the market for chips used in US data centres by 1 July 2026, and broader semiconductor tariffs were left open for a later phase.","sourceLabel":"The White House, 14 Jan 2026"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2026-02-20","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"Supreme Court of the United States","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf","citation":"Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 (decided 2026-02-20)","fact":"Held (6-3) that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs, removing the legal basis for the 2025 reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs.","sourceLabel":"Supreme Court of the United States, 20 Feb 2026"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2026-02-20","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"The White House (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/02/imposing-a-temporary-import-surcharge-to-address-fundamental-international-payments-problems/","citation":"Proclamation 11012, 91 FR 9339 (published 2026-02-25); companion order 'Ending Certain Tariff Actions', 91 FR 9437","fact":"Imposed a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 from 24 February 2026 for 150 days (to 24 July 2026), with exceptions that include certain electronics, energy and energy products, and goods covered by Section 232 actions.","sourceLabel":"The White House, 20 Feb 2026"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2026-07-23","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"Office of the United States Trade Representative (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/28/2026-15181/notice-of-actions-in-section-301-investigations-of-acts-policies-and-practices-of-various-economies","citation":"91 FR 47318 (published 2026-07-28); USTR final action notice PDF https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/FLIP%20301%20Investigation%20Final%20Action%20FRN%207-23-26%20FINAL.pdf","fact":"Section 301 'forced-labour' duties of 10% or 12.5% (some capped net of MFN) on goods of 60 economies, effective 24 July 2026 as the Section 122 surcharge lapsed; the UK is in the 10% group and China in the 12.5% group. The exemption list (heading 9903.05.86) includes computers (8471), computer parts (8473.30), semiconductor equipment (8486), smartphones (8517.13), network equipment (8517.62), SSDs (8523.51), display modules (8524), monitors (8528.52) and semiconductors (8541, 8542).","sourceLabel":"Office of the United States Trade Representative, 23 Jul 2026"},{"type":"tariffs","date":"2026-08-06","jurisdiction":"US","publisher":"The White House (Federal Register)","sourceType":"official","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/adjusting-imports-of-polysilicon-and-its-derivatives-into-the-united-states/","citation":"Proclamation 11052, 91 FR 51975 (published 2026-08-11); FR: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/11/2026-16400/adjusting-imports-of-polysilicon-and-its-derivatives-into-the-united-states","fact":"Section 232 action on polysilicon and derivatives: a minimum import price programme plus a 15% duty on derivative products, effective 120 days after signing. The White House fact sheet does not say whether semiconductor-grade wafers or chips are in scope, so the effect on IT hardware is unconfirmed.","relevance":"low / unconfirmed for IT hardware","sourceLabel":"The White House, 6 Aug 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2025-10-01","vendor":"Raspberry Pi (UK)","publisher":"Raspberry Pi news blog","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://www.raspberrypi.com/news/5-10-price-increases-for-some-4gb-and-8gb-products/","fact":"$5-$10 increases on some 4GB and 8GB Compute Module products and the Raspberry Pi 500; the company said memory then cost about 120% more than a year earlier because of HBM demand for AI.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Raspberry Pi news blog, 1 Oct 2025"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2025-12-01","vendor":"Raspberry Pi (UK)","publisher":"Raspberry Pi news blog","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://www.raspberrypi.com/news/1gb-raspberry-pi-5-now-available-at-45-and-memory-driven-price-rises/","fact":"Raised prices of several Raspberry Pi 4 and 5 boards (for example Raspberry Pi 5 16GB from $120 to $145) to offset a rise in LPDDR4 memory costs.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Raspberry Pi news blog, 1 Dec 2025"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2025-12","vendor":"Framework Computer","publisher":"Framework blog (post updated to 2026-09-08)","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://frame.work/blog/updates-on-memory-pricing-and-navigating-the-volatile-memory-market","fact":"Raised the price of DDR5 memory configured in Framework Laptop DIY Edition orders by 50%, then repriced memory and storage repeatedly through 2026, citing supplier cost increases driven by AI data-centre demand. The page header gives no date for the original post, and 'December 2025' is taken from the post's update log.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited (2025 tariff episode mentioned only as precedent for its pricing approach)","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Framework blog, Dec 2025"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-02-02","vendor":"Raspberry Pi (UK)","publisher":"Raspberry Pi news blog","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://www.raspberrypi.com/news/more-memory-driven-price-rises/","fact":"Further increases on all Raspberry Pi 4/5 and Compute Module 4/5 products with 2GB or more memory ($10 for 1-2GB, $15 for 4GB, $30 for 8GB, $60 for 16GB). The company said some part costs had more than doubled in the previous quarter.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Raspberry Pi news blog, 2 Feb 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-04-01","vendor":"Raspberry Pi (UK)","publisher":"Raspberry Pi news blog","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://www.raspberrypi.com/news/a-new-3gb-raspberry-pi-4-for-83-75-and-more-memory-driven-price-increases/","fact":"Further increases of $25-$150 on 4GB-and-above boards, Raspberry Pi 500/500+ and Compute Modules, citing a seven-fold rise over the previous year in the price of the LPDDR4 DRAM it uses.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Raspberry Pi news blog, 1 Apr 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-05-22","vendor":"Lenovo Group","publisher":"Lenovo Q4 FY2025/26 results press release","sourceType":"official vendor statement","url":"https://investor.lenovo.com/en/financial/results/press_2526_q4.pdf","fact":"Described the trading environment as marked by supply shortages and rising component costs; its 13 Aug 2026 Q1 FY2026/27 release (https://investor.lenovo.com/en/financial/results/press_2627_q1.pdf) referred to supply constraints and cost pressures. Neither release gives list-price figures.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited (as component costs; memory not named)","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Lenovo Q4 FY2025/26 results press release, 22 May 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-08-27","vendor":"HP Inc.","publisher":"HP Inc. Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721726000051/hpq-20260731.htm","fact":"Personal Systems net revenue +18.5% YoY, driven by average selling prices up 40.8% while PC units fell 15.8%. HP attributed the ASP rise mainly to pricing actions to offset higher commodity costs (memory and storage), plus favourable currency and mix. Middle East instability appears only as a general risk factor.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"cited (favourable currency contributed to ASP)"},"sourceLabel":"HP Inc. Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31, 27 Aug 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-08-31","vendor":"Super Micro Computer","publisher":"Supermicro Form 10-K, fiscal year to 2026-06-30","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm","fact":"Said industry-wide supply constraints for memory, storage, GPUs and CPUs affected delivery timing and the pricing of these items in fiscal 2026. Tariff expenses rose by US$237.7m (+228.3%) because of new trade policies.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"cited (as a cost increase)","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Supermicro Form 10-K, fiscal year to 2026-06-30, 31 Aug 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-09-02","vendor":"Cisco Systems","publisher":"Cisco Form 10-K, fiscal year to 2026-07-25","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000132/csco-20260725.htm","fact":"Product gross margin fell 0.5 percentage points, mainly from product mix and higher memory costs, partly offset by pricing actions. Inventories rose to US$5.7bn from US$3.2bn, partly reflecting higher memory prices.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"not-cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"Cisco Form 10-K, fiscal year to 2026-07-25, 2 Sep 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-09-03","vendor":"Hewlett Packard Enterprise","publisher":"HPE Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1645590/000164559026000080/hpe-20260731.htm","fact":"Server net revenue +35.3% YoY, mainly from higher average selling prices, which HPE attributed primarily to commodity price increases, especially memory and SSDs. HPE also said tariffs and trade measures had contributed to higher component and end-product prices, and that logistics costs remained high because of trade-policy changes and geopolitical tensions.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"cited (logistics costs; attributed to trade policy and geopolitical tensions, not to fuel)","memory":"cited","tariffs":"cited","fx":"not-cited"},"sourceLabel":"HPE Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31, 3 Sep 2026"},{"type":"vendorStatements","date":"2026-09-08","vendor":"Dell Technologies","publisher":"Dell Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31","sourceType":"company filing","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571996/000157199626000046/dell-20260731.htm","fact":"Said input costs rose with higher component costs, describing 'substantial inflation in memory component costs'; traditional servers and networking revenue rose 122% YoY in the quarter, primarily from higher average selling prices attributed to disciplined pricing and, to a lesser extent, richer configurations; Client Solutions (PC) ASP increases were primarily attributed to disciplined pricing. Dell states it adjusts pricing when possible to minimise foreign-currency impacts, and lists military conflicts (including the Iran conflict) among macroeconomic risks.","reasons":{"energyOil":"not-cited","freight":"not-cited","memory":"cited","tariffs":"risk-only","fx":"cited (pricing adjusted for FX where possible)","iranConflict":"risk-only"},"sourceLabel":"Dell Form 10-Q, quarter to 2026-07-31, 8 Sep 2026"},{"type":"finding","fact":"None of the official statements reviewed from eight vendors (Raspberry Pi, Framework, Lenovo, HP Inc., Supermicro, Cisco, HPE and Dell; October 2025 to September 2026) gives oil or energy prices as a reason for hardware price increases. The filings cite memory and component cost inflation. HPE attributes its server average-selling-price rise primarily to memory and SSD prices, and HP to pricing actions against higher commodity costs. Dell attributes its ASP rise to pricing and configuration, amid what it calls substantial memory cost inflation. HPE ties higher logistics costs to trade policy and geopolitical tensions, and Dell and HP mention the Iran conflict or Middle East instability only as general risk factors.","source":"Servnet review of official vendor statements (intl-it-prices stream)"}],"confoundersMeasured":[{"seriesId":"BLS_PCU334112334112","label":"US PPI: computer storage device manufacturing","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":72.266,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":117.232,"pctVsBaseline":62.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":87.18,"pctVsDec2025":79.91},{"seriesId":"BLS_PCU334418334418","label":"US PPI: printed circuit assembly manufacturing","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":141.06,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":211.738,"pctVsBaseline":50.1,"pctVsYearEarlier":131.66,"pctVsDec2025":113.9},{"seriesId":"BLS_PCU334413334413","label":"US PPI: semiconductor manufacturing","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":30.138,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":28.472,"pctVsBaseline":-5.53,"pctVsYearEarlier":-3.13,"pctVsDec2025":-4.03},{"seriesId":"ons_cpi_segment_630384","label":"UK CPI item: SD card (chain-linked)","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":125.00079902526042,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":170.45346721510185,"pctVsBaseline":36.36,"pctVsYearEarlier":66.44,"pctVsDec2025":63.63},{"seriesId":"ons_cpi_segment_630385","label":"UK CPI item: USB stick (chain-linked)","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":112.67883310661122,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":134.0736267747968,"pctVsBaseline":18.99,"pctVsYearEarlier":41.6,"pctVsDec2025":32.55},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g333","label":"UK PPI output: C262 computers and peripherals","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":123.5,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":142.3,"pctVsBaseline":15.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":21.31,"pctVsDec2025":20.9},{"seriesId":"ons_ppi_g68q","label":"UK import prices: C26 computer, electronic and optical","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":126.4,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":124.1,"pctVsBaseline":-1.82,"pctVsYearEarlier":-2.36,"pctVsDec2025":-2.28},{"seriesId":"FRB_H10_RXIUS_N_M_UK","label":"US dollars per pound (Federal Reserve)","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":1.3579,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":1.3547,"pctVsBaseline":-0.24,"pctVsYearEarlier":0.68,"pctVsDec2025":1.2},{"seriesId":"ECB_EXR_M_GBP_EUR_SP00_A","label":"Pounds per euro (ECB)","baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":0.870315,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":0.8560557142857144,"pctVsBaseline":-1.64,"pctVsYearEarlier":-1.07,"pctVsDec2025":-2.17}],"findings":[{"rank":1,"grade":"A","id":"uk-it-prices-did-not-follow-oil","title":"UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with oil in 2026","finding":"Between February and August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8% (it peaked in April 2026, 69.3% above February) and UK sterling import prices for crude oil rose 23.4%. Over the same months UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products (C26, a broad basket that includes components, telecoms and optical goods) changed −1.8%, and −2.4% on a year earlier. UK consumer prices for information processing equipment (CPI 09.1.3) were broadly flat and volatile month to month (between 70.8 and 75.0 from March to August 2026) and did not rise with oil; in August 2026 they were 2.5% lower than a year earlier. UK producer prices for computers and peripherals (C262) did rise, by 15.2%, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices (see below).","numbers":{"brentWB":{"baseline":["2026-02",71.1],"latest":["2026-08",90.9],"pctVsBaseline":27.85,"pctVsYearEarlier":33.28,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":30.69},"ezqb":{"baseline":["2026-02",151.4],"latest":["2026-08",186.8],"pctVsBaseline":23.38,"pctVsYearEarlier":22.98,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":29.12},"g68q":{"baseline":["2026-02",126.4],"latest":["2026-08",124.1],"pctVsBaseline":-1.82,"pctVsYearEarlier":-2.36,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":-0.8},"d7ep":{"baseline":["2026-02",74.9],"latest":["2026-08",73.3],"pctVsBaseline":-2.14,"pctVsYearEarlier":-2.53,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":-3.31,"range2026":{"from":"2026-03","to":"2026-08","min":70.8,"max":75},"threeMonthAverage":{"from":["2025-12","2026-02"],"to":["2026-06","2026-08"],"pct":1.92,"sameWindowsPrior3y":[0.35,-1.44,2.51],"sameWindowsPrior3yMeanPct":0.47}},"g333":{"baseline":["2026-02",123.5],"latest":["2026-08",142.3],"pctVsBaseline":15.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":21.31,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":15.26}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0).","caveat":"Descriptive comparison; exchange rates, memory prices and product mix also move these indices. On three-month averages (Dec-Feb to Jun-Aug) CPI 09.1.3 rose 1.9% in 2026 against an average of 0.5% for the same windows in 2023-25, so the sign of any \"seasonal excess\" depends on the endpoints chosen and is not reported.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=wb_crude_brent_monthly].peakSinceBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezqb].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].pctVsYearEarlier","now2026[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].range2026","now2026[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].pctVsYearEarlier","now2026[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].threeMonthAverage","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].pctVsBaseline"]},{"rank":2,"grade":"A","id":"uk-freight-services-record-quarter","title":"UK prices for other transport support services (incl. freight forwarding) had their largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996","finding":"UK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, the largest quarter-on-quarter rise since the series began in 1996 Q1. Transport and storage services overall rose 7.4% (ONS publishes 7.3%) and cargo handling 10.5%, each also the largest quarterly rise in its series (the series start in 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q4). ONS attributes the rise in transport and storage prices mainly to other transportation support services, reflecting higher shipping rates and fuel charges resulting from the conflict (ONS services producer price bulletin, 22 July 2026).","numbers":{"hqsl":{"q1_2026":152.3,"q2_2026":188.7,"qoq":23.9,"record":{"windowLength":"1 quarters","seriesStart":"1996 Q1","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":23.9,"type":"largest-in-series","seriesRecord":{"window":["2026 Q1","2026 Q2"],"change":23.9,"isCurrentWindow":true},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2020 Q4","2021 Q1"],"change":10.74},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2020 Q4","2021 Q1"],"change":10.74}}},"hpzy":{"q1_2026":141.3,"q2_2026":151.7,"qoq":7.36,"record":{"windowLength":"1 quarters","seriesStart":"2008 Q4","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":7.36,"type":"largest-in-series","seriesRecord":{"window":["2026 Q1","2026 Q2"],"change":7.36,"isCurrentWindow":true},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2022 Q1","2022 Q2"],"change":3.65},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2022 Q1","2022 Q2"],"change":3.65}}},"hqsg":{"qoq":10.54,"record":{"windowLength":"1 quarters","seriesStart":"2009 Q4","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":10.54,"type":"largest-in-series","seriesRecord":{"window":["2026 Q1","2026 Q2"],"change":10.54,"isCurrentWindow":true},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2022 Q4","2023 Q1"],"change":5.61},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2022 Q4","2023 Q1"],"change":5.61}}}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0).","caveat":"Quarter-on-quarter changes are computed from published index levels and can differ by about 0.1 point from ONS-published rates.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterPct","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].latestQuarterLargestSince","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hpzy].latestQuarterPct","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsg].latestQuarterPct"]},{"rank":3,"grade":"A","id":"us-import-air-freight","title":"US import air-freight prices rose in 2026","finding":"The US import air-freight price index (BLS) rose 21.2% between February and August 2026 and was 27.0% above a year earlier.","numbers":{"eiuiv131":{"baseline":["2026-02",255.9],"latest":["2026-08",310.2],"pctVsBaseline":21.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":27.03,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":14.44},"asia":{"baseline":["2026-02",259.5],"latest":["2026-08",322.1],"pctVsBaseline":24.12,"pctVsYearEarlier":29.1,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":9.91},"europe":{"baseline":["2026-02",203.6],"latest":["2026-08",230.6],"pctVsBaseline":13.26,"pctVsYearEarlier":29.77,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":21.79}},"sourceNote":"U.S. BLS (public domain).","caveat":"The UK has no official air-freight price index; the US index is the nearest open monthly measure.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].pctVsYearEarlier"]},{"rank":4,"grade":"A","id":"materials-plastics-aluminium","title":"Plastics and aluminium prices rose; Gulf aluminium supply to the UK dipped","finding":"UK import prices for plastics in primary forms rose 23.4%, UK producer prices for plastics in primary forms 9.1% and UK aluminium producer prices 17.7% between February and August 2026. ONS attributes higher plastic-product prices to rises in PVC and resin input costs, which it links to the conflict in the Middle East (ONS producer price inflation, August 2026). The GCC-dispatched share of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (net mass) fell to 15.3% in April and 14.2% in June 2026, the lowest since June 2023, before returning to 28.4% in July (2025: 31.0%; 2023-25 monthly range 12%-47%).","numbers":{"ersc":{"baseline":["2026-02",132.2],"latest":["2026-08",163.1],"pctVsBaseline":23.37,"pctVsYearEarlier":19.66,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":28.19},"ew72":{"baseline":["2026-02",143.1],"latest":["2026-08",168.4],"pctVsBaseline":17.68,"pctVsYearEarlier":19.6,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":18.46},"evxh":{"baseline":["2026-02",142.8],"latest":["2026-08",155.8],"pctVsBaseline":9.1,"pctVsYearEarlier":6.64,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":12.54},"aluminiumGccShareByWeight":{"april2026":15.324080838385196,"lowSinceBaseline":{"date":"2026-06","value":14.182110535206576},"lowestSince":"2023-06","during":28.364653114242245,"duringPeriod":"2026-07","reference2025":30.973778905228112,"range2023to2025":[11.955389131626292,46.695456811690974]}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (OGL v3.0), shares derived by Servnet.","caveat":"HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin, so Gulf shares are lower bounds.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_evxh].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].pctVsBaseline","exposure2026[measure^=UK unwrought aluminium]"]},{"rank":5,"grade":"A","id":"uk-it-imports-by-air","title":"Air is the main mode for UK IT imports from outside the EU","finding":"Between 47.5% and 67.9% of the value of UK imports under the five IT headings (HS 8471, 8473, 8517, 8523, 8542) arrived by air in 2025 (59.7% of the value with a verified mode of transport), against 33.2% for all UK goods imports. For IT goods dispatched from outside the EU the verified air share was 84.4% (bounds 58.6% to 89.2%).","numbers":{"it2025":{"airShareVerified":0.5971752120086976,"lowerBound":0.47526894160915306,"upperBound":0.6794071374821744,"seaShareVerified":0.1006345824279258,"roroShareVerified":0.2849881996283653,"valueGbp":36251896576,"unverifiedShare":0.20413819587302137,"valuePerKgAir":341.7150817956132,"valuePerKgSea":64.95473005807686,"valuePerKgAll":204.5940662901114},"itNonEU2025":{"airShareVerified":0.8441287013354789,"lowerBound":0.586128543178908,"upperBound":0.8917693272778187,"seaShareVerified":0.12749440002266424,"roroShareVerified":0.026803693970940692,"valueGbp":23101952054,"unverifiedShare":0.30564078409891066,"valuePerKgAir":358.5796993941673,"valuePerKgSea":52.48215939207113,"valuePerKgAll":247.11995391334867},"allGoods2025":{"airShareVerified":0.33221398761253396,"lowerBound":0.3117655261131539,"upperBound":0.3733176047788764,"seaShareVerified":0.3321313666144714,"roroShareVerified":0.272072318534324,"valueGbp":722367769470,"unverifiedShare":0.06155207866572259,"valuePerKgAir":168.06745751907337,"valuePerKgSea":1.140044211264372,"valuePerKgAll":2.64616852122674},"it2026JanJul":{"airShareVerified":0.5476890138020554,"lowerBound":0.46849724319959896,"upperBound":0.6130898287851805,"seaShareVerified":0.0942287549156396,"roroShareVerified":0.3427345234704636,"valueGbp":23461580670,"unverifiedShare":0.14459258558558152,"valuePerKgAir":407.5736809115613,"valuePerKgSea":74.54794368374083,"valuePerKgAll":252.0063842257124}},"sourceNote":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk data (OGL v3.0), shares derived by Servnet.","caveat":"Mode is recorded at the UK border; goods trucked from EU hubs show as road or ro-ro whatever their first leg. Bounds reflect value with no verified mode.","refs":["freight.airShareByHs[period=2025,hs4=ALL]","freight.allGoodsComparator[period=2025]"]},{"rank":6,"grade":"A","id":"gulf-dispatch-share-small","title":"Direct Gulf dispatch of IT goods to the UK is small","finding":"0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 was dispatched from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states (0.73% in January-July 2026). The study's other measures cover the indirect channels: energy, freight and materials.","numbers":{"share":{"2025":0.009512039108825246,"2026-Jan-Jul":0.007345598253759942,"2025-Mar-Jul":0.00915545774440458,"2026-Mar-Jul":0.006690323920463031},"valueGbp":{"2025":344829458,"2026-Jan-Jul":172339346,"2025-Mar-Jul":129752438,"2026-Mar-Jul":116632257}},"sourceNote":"HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk data (OGL v3.0), derived by Servnet.","caveat":"Dispatch country, not origin; goods that only transit Gulf air hubs keep their original dispatch country.","refs":["freight.gulfDispatchShareOfItImports"]},{"rank":7,"grade":"A","id":"hormuz-flows","title":"Hormuz oil flows fell by about three-quarters (EIA estimate)","finding":"EIA estimates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about three-quarters (−77.3%), from 21.6 million barrels a day in 2025 Q4 to 4.9 in 2026 Q2, and LNG flows from 10.5 to 0.8 billion cubic feet a day (EIA estimates; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026). EIA estimates that oil through the Strait of Malacca, the route to East Asian electronics hubs, fell by about 31-33% (Table 2: 24.9 to 16.6 million b/d; Table 3 gives 24.0 for 2025 Q4).","numbers":{"hormuzOil":{"2025-Q1":20.9,"2025-Q2":21,"2025-Q3":21.3,"2025-Q4":21.6,"2026-Q1":14.9,"2026-Q2":4.9},"hormuzLng":{"2025-Q1":11.7,"2025-Q2":11,"2025-Q3":10.9,"2025-Q4":10.5,"2026-Q1":7.4,"2026-Q2":0.8},"malaccaOil":{"2025-Q1":22.3,"2025-Q2":23.8,"2025-Q3":23.4,"2025-Q4":24.9,"2026-Q1":21.3,"2026-Q2":16.6},"malaccaTable3_4Q25":24},"sourceNote":"U.S. EIA, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (12 Aug 2026), EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking (public domain).","caveat":"EIA's Strait of Malacca detail table (Table 3) gives 24.0 million b/d for 2025 Q4, a fall of about 30.8% to 2026 Q2; its own components (crude 18.0 + products 6.9) sum to 24.9, the Table 2 value used here (a fall of about 33.3%). The fall is best quoted as about 31-33%.","refs":["freight.hormuz.eiaQuarterly","exposure2026[measure^=Oil through the Strait of Malacca].note"]},{"rank":8,"grade":"A","id":"business-electricity-2026","title":"UK business electricity prices had not yet moved much by 2026 Q1","finding":"The average UK non-domestic electricity price (DESNZ, including the Climate Change Levy, excluding VAT) was 24.14p/kWh in 2026 Q1 (provisional), against 23.99p in 2025 Q4 (+0.6%), while the GB wholesale electricity system price rose 64.6% and the GB gas system average price 88.8% from February to August 2026. DESNZ publishes 2026 Q2 prices on 29 September 2026.","numbers":{"prices":{"band":"average","label":"All non-domestic consumers (average)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":23.988279806864902,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":24.14162719917557,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":24.339190374334716,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":28.388321798981593,"pctLatestVsPre":0.64},"wholesale":{"gbElectricitySystemPrice":{"baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":7.953,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":13.093,"pctVsBaseline":64.63},"gbGasSAP":{"baselineDate":"2026-02","baseline":2.733,"latestDate":"2026-08","latest":5.159,"pctVsBaseline":88.77},"note":"The system price is a balancing (imbalance) price, not the forward price business contracts track; use it for direction only. DESNZ notes that fixed-price contracts delay pass-through; Q2 2026 non-domestic prices are due on 29 Sep 2026."}},"sourceNote":"DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices Table 3.4.2 (OGL v3.0); ONS system price (contains BMRS data © Elexon) and SAP (National Gas Transmission).","caveat":"The system price is an imbalance price, not the forward price most business contracts track; Q1 2026 contains one conflict month.","refs":["runningCost.inputs.prices[band=average]","now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_electricity_system_price_monthly].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_gb_gas_sap_monthly].pctVsBaseline"]},{"rank":9,"grade":"B","id":"method-validation","title":"The model finds the link where one is known to exist","finding":"The same model finds a link where one is known to exist: cumulative 12-month elasticities to the World Bank Brent monthly average are UK import prices: crude petroleum (sterling) +1.040 (95% CI +0.973 to +1.106); US Gulf Coast jet fuel spot +1.131 (95% CI +1.013 to +1.250); UK gas oil (red diesel / heating) price +0.807 (95% CI +0.659 to +0.955); UK diesel pump price +0.327 (95% CI +0.236 to +0.417).","numbers":{"ons_ppi_ezqb":{"label":"UK import prices: crude petroleum (sterling)","elasticity":1.0398,"ci95":[0.9733,1.1064],"ci95Conservative":[0.9567,1.123],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":10.419,"pre2026":1.0428,"from2010":1.0398},"eia_jet_usgc_monthly":{"label":"US Gulf Coast jet fuel spot","elasticity":1.1311,"ci95":[1.0125,1.2497],"ci95Conservative":[0.9829,1.2794],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":11.383,"pre2026":1.118,"from2010":1.1283},"desnz_qep411_gas_oil_monthly":{"label":"UK gas oil (red diesel / heating) price","elasticity":0.8067,"ci95":[0.6586,0.9549],"ci95Conservative":[0.6215,0.992],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":7.992,"pre2026":0.7995,"from2010":0.7967},"desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly":{"label":"UK diesel pump price","elasticity":0.3268,"ci95":[0.2361,0.4175],"ci95Conservative":[0.2134,0.4401],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":3.163,"pre2026":0.3155,"from2010":0.4135}},"sourceNote":"ONS, DESNZ (OGL v3.0); U.S. EIA spot price (derived statistic only; upstream Refinitiv); World Bank (CC BY 4.0).","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezqb].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezqb].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezqb].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezqb].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=eia_jet_usgc_monthly].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=eia_jet_usgc_monthly].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=eia_jet_usgc_monthly].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=eia_jet_usgc_monthly].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_gas_oil_monthly].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_gas_oil_monthly].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_gas_oil_monthly].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_gas_oil_monthly].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly].verdict"]},{"rank":10,"grade":"B","id":"inputs-link-finished-it-no-detectable-response","title":"Broad and upstream price indices move with oil; finished IT goods show no detectable response","finding":"Broader and upstream price indices show a robust link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average (samples starting 1996-2009): UK import prices: all goods +0.148 (95% CI +0.091 to +0.205); US import prices: all commodities +0.165 (95% CI +0.126 to +0.204); US import prices: all excluding fuels +0.058 (95% CI +0.035 to +0.080); UK PPI input: all manufacturing +0.140 (95% CI +0.097 to +0.182); UK PPI input: C26 industry inputs +0.058 (95% CI +0.024 to +0.093). Inputs to UK IT manufacturing show a link; finished IT goods show no detectable response (see the null result).","numbers":{"ons_ppi_gd74":{"label":"UK import prices: all goods","elasticity":0.1477,"ci95":[0.0907,0.2048],"ci95Conservative":[0.0765,0.219],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.418,"pre2026":0.1453,"from2010":0.1438},"BLS_EIUIR":{"label":"US import prices: all commodities","elasticity":0.1651,"ci95":[0.1258,0.2044],"ci95Conservative":[0.116,0.2142],"n":366,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.586,"pre2026":0.1661,"from2010":0.1472},"BLS_EIUIREXFUELS":{"label":"US import prices: all excluding fuels","elasticity":0.0578,"ci95":[0.0355,0.0802],"ci95Conservative":[0.0299,0.0857],"n":294,"sample":["2002-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.552,"pre2026":0.0573,"from2010":0.0539},"ons_ppi_ghip":{"label":"UK PPI input: all manufacturing","elasticity":0.1395,"ci95":[0.0975,0.1815],"ci95Conservative":[0.087,0.1921],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.339,"pre2026":0.1392,"from2010":0.179},"ons_ppi_ghgq":{"label":"UK PPI input: C26 industry inputs","elasticity":0.0583,"ci95":[0.024,0.0925],"ci95Conservative":[0.0154,0.1011],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.0036,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.557,"pre2026":0.0576,"from2010":0.0556}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); World Bank (CC BY 4.0).","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_gd74].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_gd74].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_gd74].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_gd74].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIREXFUELS].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIREXFUELS].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIREXFUELS].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIREXFUELS].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghip].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghip].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghip].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghip].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghgq].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghgq].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghgq].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ghgq].verdict"]},{"rank":11,"grade":"B","id":"materials-passthrough","title":"IT-relevant materials show a robust link with oil","finding":"IT-relevant materials show a robust link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average: UK import prices: plastics in primary forms +0.229 (95% CI +0.119 to +0.340); UK PPI output: plastics in primary forms +0.190 (95% CI +0.109 to +0.272); UK PPI output: aluminium +0.193 (95% CI +0.109 to +0.277).","numbers":{"ons_ppi_ersc":{"label":"UK import prices: plastics in primary forms","elasticity":0.2295,"ci95":[0.119,0.3399],"ci95Conservative":[0.0914,0.3675],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.0003,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":2.211,"pre2026":0.2093,"from2010":0.2311},"ons_ppi_evxh":{"label":"UK PPI output: plastics in primary forms","elasticity":0.1904,"ci95":[0.1088,0.272],"ci95Conservative":[0.0884,0.2924],"n":367,"sample":["1996-02","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.831,"pre2026":0.1894,"from2010":0.2249},"ons_ppi_ew72":{"label":"UK PPI output: aluminium","elasticity":0.1926,"ci95":[0.1087,0.2765],"ci95Conservative":[0.0877,0.2975],"n":367,"sample":["1996-02","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.852,"pre2026":0.1867,"from2010":0.1945}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); World Bank (CC BY 4.0).","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ersc].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_evxh].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_evxh].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_evxh].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_evxh].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ew72].verdict"]},{"rank":12,"grade":"B","id":"freight-passthrough","title":"Some freight prices show a robust link with oil","finding":"Of the 16 freight and transport price series tested, 3 show a robust link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average: UK SPPI: road freight and removals +0.064 (95% CI +0.017 to +0.111); US PPI: scheduled air freight +0.175 (95% CI +0.084 to +0.266); US PPI: deep sea freight +0.227 (95% CI +0.131 to +0.323). Four more show a link in the main sample that is not robust (UK SPPI: transport and storage; UK SPPI: other transport support (incl. freight forwarding); UK SPPI: air transport (passenger and freight); UK SPPI: warehousing and storage), and nine show no detectable link (UK SPPI: support services for transport; UK SPPI: cargo handling; UK SPPI: sea and coastal freight; UK SPPI: other postal and courier; US import air freight price; US import air freight price, Asia; US import air freight price, Europe; US inbound air freight price (all carriers); US PPI: freight transport arrangement (forwarding)). Samples start in 1996 or at the series start; the US series use the full BLS history.","numbers":{"ons_sppi_hqdv":{"label":"UK SPPI: road freight and removals","elasticity":0.0638,"ci95":[0.0171,0.1106],"ci95Conservative":[0.0054,0.1223],"n":70,"sample":["2009 Q1","2026 Q2"],"qBH":0.0257,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.61,"pre2026":0.063,"from2010":0.0629},"bls_pcu481112481112":{"label":"US PPI: scheduled air freight","elasticity":0.1748,"ci95":[0.0835,0.2661],"ci95Conservative":[0.0607,0.2889],"n":272,"sample":["2004-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.0009,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.68,"pre2026":0.1638,"from2010":0.148},"bls_pcu483111483111":{"label":"US PPI: deep sea freight","elasticity":0.2267,"ci95":[0.1306,0.3227],"ci95Conservative":[0.1066,0.3468],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0,"verdict":"robust","pctPer10pctBrent":2.184,"pre2026":0.2233,"from2010":0.2753},"counts":{"freightAndTransportSeriesTested":16,"robust":3,"significantNotRobust":4,"noDetectableLink":9,"groups":["uk-freight","us-freight"],"seriesByVerdict":{"robust":["ons_sppi_hqdv","bls_pcu481112481112","bls_pcu483111483111"],"significant-not-robust":["ons_sppi_hpzy","ons_sppi_hqsl","ons_sppi_hqpz","ons_sppi_hqrb"],"null-precise":["ons_sppi_hqsg"],"null-imprecise":["ons_sppi_hqri","ons_sppi_hqns","ons_sppi_hqtc","BLS_EIUIV131","BLS_EIUIV1312","BLS_EIUIV1311","bls_eiuic131","bls_pcu488510488510"]}}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); World Bank (CC BY 4.0).","caveat":"The US import air-freight index shows no stable link: it rose in 2020 while oil fell and passenger-aircraft cargo capacity was cut.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqdv].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqdv].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqdv].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqdv].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu481112481112].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu481112481112].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu481112481112].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu481112481112].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu483111483111].verdict"]},{"rank":13,"grade":"B","id":"pooled-episode-sign-test","title":"Past large oil rises: fuels followed oil, IT hardware showed no consistent pattern","finding":"Across the nine large Brent rises flagged since 2005 (including rebounds after the 2008, 2015 and 2020 falls), UK crude import prices, UK diesel and UK CPI all items rose faster than their own trend over the next 12 months after 8 of 9; the IT hardware price indices showed no consistent pattern (4 to 6 of 9). Counts: UK crude import prices 8 of 9; UK diesel 8 of 9; UK CPI all items 8 of 9; UK plastics PPI 6 of 9; UK CPI 09.1.3 4 of 9; UK PPI C26 6 of 9; US import prices for computers 5 of 9; US CPI computers 5 of 9; euro-area HICP IT 6 of 9.","numbers":{"ons_ppi_ezqb":{"label":"UK crude import prices","sameSign12":8,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":53.13},"desnz_qep411_ulsd_diesel_monthly":{"label":"UK diesel","sameSign12":8,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":14.28},"ons_mm23_d7bt":{"label":"UK CPI all items","sameSign12":8,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":0.62},"ons_ppi_evxh":{"label":"UK plastics PPI","sameSign12":6,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":6.75},"ons_mm23_d7ep":{"label":"UK CPI 09.1.3","sameSign12":4,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":-0.64},"ons_ppi_g6t5":{"label":"UK PPI C26","sameSign12":6,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":1.28},"BLS_EIUIR213":{"label":"US import prices for computers","sameSign12":5,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":0.31},"BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01":{"label":"US CPI computers","sameSign12":5,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":0.65},"ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EA_I25":{"label":"euro-area HICP IT","sameSign12":6,"n12":9,"medianExcess12":0.31},"upShockBaselines":["2005-02","2007-01","2008-01","2009-02","2010-10","2016-01","2017-07","2020-04","2021-12"],"rebounds":["2009-02","2016-01","2020-04"]},"sourceNote":"ONS, DESNZ (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS; Eurostat; World Bank (CC BY 4.0).","caveat":"Episodes overlap (for example 2007-01 and 2008-01); small counts; a descriptive sign count, not a formal test.","refs":["episodePooled[direction=up]","episodesFlaggedByRule"]},{"rank":14,"grade":"B-null","id":"no-detectable-link-it-hardware","title":"No detectable link from oil to three IT hardware price indices","finding":"For three IT hardware price indices, even the conservative intervals rule out more than about a 1% index move per 10% Brent move (samples from 1996, or 2009 for UK C26 import prices, to August 2026): UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products (C26) +0.004 (95% CI −0.041 to +0.049; conservative −0.052 to +0.061); US import prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors +0.020 (95% CI −0.021 to +0.062; conservative −0.032 to +0.072); US PPI for computer and peripheral equipment +0.031 (95% CI −0.015 to +0.078; conservative −0.026 to +0.089). For the main consumer IT indices (UK CPI 09.1.3, US CPI computers, and euro-area and EU27 HICP information processing equipment) the data cannot rule out a modest link (see the C-null results); UK import prices for electronic components (C261 and C2611) show a link in the main sample that is not robust. This is no detectable link in these data, not proof that oil has no effect.","numbers":{"ons_ppi_g68q":{"label":"UK import prices: C26 computer, electronic and optical","elasticity":0.0042,"ci95":[-0.0412,0.0495],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0525,0.0608],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.8855,"verdict":"null-precise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.04,"pre2026":0.0063,"from2010":-0.0009},"BLS_EIUIR213":{"label":"US import prices: computers, peripherals and semiconductors","elasticity":0.0201,"ci95":[-0.0215,0.0617],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0319,0.0721],"n":366,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.5067,"verdict":"null-precise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.192,"pre2026":0.0097,"from2010":0.0437},"BLS_PCU3341__3341__":{"label":"US PPI: computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing","elasticity":0.0315,"ci95":[-0.0146,0.0776],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0261,0.0891],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.3289,"verdict":"null-precise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.301,"pre2026":0.0206,"from2010":0.0608},"ons_ppi_ezsq":{"label":"UK import prices: C261 electronic components and boards","elasticity":0.0434,"ci95":[0.0013,0.0855],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0093,0.096],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.1125,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.414,"pre2026":0.0459,"from2010":0.0384},"ons_ppi_eruz":{"label":"UK import prices: C2611 electronic components","elasticity":0.0488,"ci95":[0.0076,0.0901],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0027,0.1004],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.0635,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.467,"pre2026":0.0515,"from2010":0.0448}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); World Bank (CC BY 4.0); Federal Reserve H.10 (exchange-rate control).","caveat":"The 2026 episode adds only six months to the sample; the finding describes the historical relationship, not a particular month.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g68q].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR213].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR213].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR213].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIR213].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].verdict"]},{"rank":15,"grade":"B-null","id":"hosting-no-passthrough","title":"Hosting prices show no detectable link with oil","finding":"Data processing and hosting prices (a proxy for cloud and colocation) show no detectable link with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average: UK SPPI: data processing and hosting −0.003 (95% CI −0.027 to +0.020; conservative −0.033 to +0.026); US PPI: data processing and hosting −0.005 (95% CI −0.016 to +0.007; conservative −0.019 to +0.009). In 2026 UK SPPI J631 changed +2.7% (2026 Q2 against 2025 Q4) and US PPI +1.3% (February to August 2026).","numbers":{"ons_sppi_hry6":{"label":"UK SPPI: data processing and hosting","elasticity":-0.0034,"ci95":[-0.0268,0.0199],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0326,0.0257],"n":70,"sample":["2009 Q1","2026 Q2"],"qBH":0.8404,"verdict":"null-precise","pctPer10pctBrent":-0.033,"pre2026":-0.0047,"from2010":-0.0084},"BLS_PCU518210518210":{"label":"US PPI: data processing and hosting","elasticity":-0.0047,"ci95":[-0.016,0.0066],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0188,0.0094],"n":308,"sample":["2001-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.5829,"verdict":"null-precise","pctPer10pctBrent":-0.045,"pre2026":-0.0047,"from2010":-0.0068}},"sourceNote":"ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain).","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hry6].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hry6].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hry6].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hry6].verdict","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU518210518210].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU518210518210].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU518210518210].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_PCU518210518210].verdict","now2026[seriesId=ons_sppi_hry6].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=BLS_PCU518210518210].pctVsBaseline"]},{"rank":16,"grade":"A-confounded","id":"us-eu-consumer-it-prices-rose","title":"US and euro-area consumer IT prices rose; UK consumer IT prices did not","finding":"Between February and August 2026, US CPI computers and peripherals rose 9.3% and euro-area HICP information processing equipment 5.0%, in each case the largest six-month rise in the series (compared with every six-month window since 1997 and 1996 respectively), while UK CPI 09.1.3 changed −2.1%. These rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices; the vendor statements and filings reviewed cite memory and component costs, and none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.","numbers":{"usCpiComputers":{"baseline":["2026-02",34.782],"latest":["2026-08",38.02],"pctVsBaseline":9.31,"pctVsYearEarlier":8.43,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":10.61},"eaHicpIt":{"baseline":["2026-02",101.76],"latest":["2026-08",106.82],"pctVsBaseline":4.97,"pctVsYearEarlier":7.84,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":8.45},"ukCpi0913":{"baseline":["2026-02",74.9],"latest":["2026-08",73.3],"pctVsBaseline":-2.14,"pctVsYearEarlier":-2.53,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":-3.31},"records":{"usCpiComputers":{"windowLength":"6 months","seriesStart":"1997-12","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":9.31,"type":"largest-in-series","seriesRecord":{"window":["2026-02","2026-08"],"change":9.31,"isCurrentWindow":true},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2021-03","2021-09"],"change":8.53},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2021-03","2021-09"],"change":8.53}},"eaHicpIt":{"windowLength":"6 months","seriesStart":"1996-01","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":4.97,"type":"largest-in-series","seriesRecord":{"window":["2026-02","2026-08"],"change":4.97,"isCurrentWindow":true},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2022-07","2023-01"],"change":3.59},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2022-07","2023-01"],"change":3.59}}}},"sourceNote":"U.S. BLS (public domain); Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr); ONS (OGL v3.0); vendor filings listed under confounders.","caveat":"Quality-adjustment methods differ between the three statistical offices; the rise in memory-chip prices and US tariff changes overlap the period.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].largestMoveSince","now2026[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EA_I25].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EA_I25].largestMoveSince","confounders[type=finding]"]},{"rank":17,"grade":"A-confounded","id":"producer-computer-prices-memory","title":"Producer prices for computers rose, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices","finding":"US producer prices for computer and peripheral equipment rose 18.1% from February to August 2026, more than three times any six-month rise before 2026 (previous maximum +5.3%, September 2021 to March 2022); the series record is +18.5% (January to July 2026). The index had already risen 2.9% in the three months to February; of the 11.4-point rise from February to August, 11.1 points came after April (index 63.1 in February, 63.4 in April, 74.5 in August). UK producer prices for computers and peripherals (C262) rose 15.2% from February to August 2026; the series record six-month rise is +19.1% (November 2025 to May 2026), which began before the conflict (largest before 2025: +10.7%, May to November 2000). US storage-device producer prices rose 62.2%. These rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices; the vendor statements and filings reviewed cite memory and component costs, and none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.","numbers":{"g333":{"baseline":["2026-02",123.5],"latest":["2026-08",142.3],"pctVsBaseline":15.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":21.31,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":15.26,"largestMoveSince":{"windowLength":"6 months","seriesStart":"1996-01","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":15.22,"type":"since","window":["2026-01","2026-07"],"windowChange":15.85,"seriesRecord":{"window":["2025-11","2026-05"],"change":19.15,"isCurrentWindow":false},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2000-05","2000-11"],"change":10.65},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2000-05","2000-11"],"change":10.65}}},"usComputerPPI":{"baseline":["2026-02",63.079],"latest":["2026-08",74.484],"pctVsBaseline":18.08,"pctVsYearEarlier":22.66,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":17.72,"largestMoveSince":{"windowLength":"6 months","seriesStart":"1995-01","scope":"every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap the current one or started before the baseline","change":18.08,"type":"since","window":["2026-01","2026-07"],"windowChange":18.49,"seriesRecord":{"window":["2026-01","2026-07"],"change":18.49,"isCurrentWindow":false},"largestEndingBefore2025":{"window":["2021-09","2022-03"],"change":5.31},"largestEndingBefore2026":{"window":["2021-09","2022-03"],"change":5.31}},"indexFebAprAug":[63.079,63.36,74.484],"pctThreeMonthsToFeb":2.88},"usStoragePPI":{"baseline":["2026-02",72.266],"latest":["2026-08",117.232],"pctVsBaseline":62.22,"pctVsYearEarlier":87.18,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":63.44},"ukC262PctThreeMonthsToFeb":5.56},"sourceNote":"U.S. BLS (public domain); ONS (OGL v3.0); vendor filings listed under confounders.","caveat":"Record statements compare every six-month window in each series, including windows that overlap 2026.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=BLS_PCU3341__3341__].largestMoveSince","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].largestMoveSince","now2026[seriesId=BLS_PCU334112334112].pctVsBaseline"]},{"rank":18,"grade":"A-confounded","id":"uk-flash-storage-items","title":"UK consumer prices for SD cards and USB sticks rose","finding":"Among UK consumer price items, SD cards rose 36.4% and USB sticks 19.0% between February and August 2026 (66.4% and 41.6% on a year earlier), coinciding with the rise in flash-memory prices described in company filings.","numbers":{"sdCard":{"baseline":["2026-02",125.00079902526042],"latest":["2026-08",170.45346721510185],"pctVsBaseline":36.36,"pctVsYearEarlier":66.44,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":null},"usbStick":{"baseline":["2026-02",112.67883310661122],"latest":["2026-08",134.0736267747968],"pctVsBaseline":18.99,"pctVsYearEarlier":41.6,"excessVsSameWindowPrior3y":null}},"sourceNote":"ONS CPI item indices (OGL v3.0), chain-linked by Servnet.","caveat":"Servnet chain-links of small-sample, non-accredited ONS item indices; volatile month to month.","refs":["now2026[seriesId=ons_cpi_segment_630384].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_cpi_segment_630384].pctVsYearEarlier","now2026[seriesId=ons_cpi_segment_630385].pctVsBaseline","now2026[seriesId=ons_cpi_segment_630385].pctVsYearEarlier"]},{"rank":19,"grade":"Illustrative","id":"running-cost-arithmetic","title":"What a rack and a server cost to run (illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast)","finding":"Illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast. A 10 kW rack at PUE 1.58 uses 138.4 MWh a year, which on its own would put a site in the DESNZ small band. At that band's prices (including the Climate Change Levy, excluding VAT) it costs about £40,927 a year at 2025 Q4 prices (29.57p/kWh) and £39,800 at 2026 Q1 prices (28.76p); at the band's highest quarterly price (2023 Q4, 34.57p) it would cost about £47,850. Each 1p/kWh adds £1,384 a year. At the all-consumer average price (23.99p in 2025 Q4) the same rack costs about £33,202, but that average includes much larger sites. A 2-socket server idling at the ENERGY STAR median of 173.4 W (n = 229) costs about £710 a year at PUE 1.58 and the 2025 Q4 small-band price, in a site in that band such as the rack above.","numbers":{"rackBandMatched":{"load":"rack_10kw","watts":10000,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":138408,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":true,"gbp_preConflict":40927.12,"gbp_latest":39799.81,"gbp_annual2025":40266.3,"gbp_record":47849.91,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":1384.08,"bandLabel":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)"},"rackAverageForComparison":{"load":"rack_10kw","watts":10000,"pue":1.58,"band":"average","kWhPerYear":138408,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":33201.7,"gbp_latest":33413.94,"gbp_annual2025":33687.39,"gbp_record":39291.71,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":1384.08},"serverIdle":{"load":"server_idle","watts":173.4,"pue":1.58,"band":"small","kWhPerYear":2400,"bandMatchedForSiteOfThisLoadOnly":false,"gbp_preConflict":709.68,"gbp_latest":690.13,"gbp_annual2025":698.22,"gbp_record":829.72,"gbpPer1pPerKWh":24},"prices":{"bandMatched":{"band":"small","label":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_small_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":29.569912343950303,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":28.7554234184367,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":29.0924642108215,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":34.57163556188797,"pctLatestVsPre":-2.75},"average":{"band":"average","label":"All non-domestic consumers (average)","seriesId":"desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","preConflictQuarter":"2025 Q4","preConflict":23.988279806864902,"latestQuarter":"2026 Q1","latest":24.14162719917557,"latestIncludesConflictMonths":1,"annual2025":24.339190374334716,"recordQuarter":"2023 Q4","record":28.388321798981593,"pctLatestVsPre":0.64}}},"sourceNote":"DESNZ QEP Table 3.4.2 (OGL v3.0); U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR (public domain); Uptime Institute (PUE, cited fact).","caveat":"Planning arithmetic only: the site's price band, contract dates and actual load decide real costs. The idle median excludes 2 records reporting 0 W idle.","refs":["runningCost.headline","runningCost.inputs.prices","runningCost.inputs.serverIdleWatts"]},{"rank":20,"grade":"C","id":"business-electricity-lag-2021-23","title":"In 2021-23 business electricity peaked about five quarters after wholesale","finding":"In 2021-23 the average UK non-domestic electricity price peaked in 2023 Q4, five quarters after the GB wholesale system price peaked (2022 Q3; monthly peak August 2022). Across the six bands from Small to Extra Large the lag was 4 to 6 quarters; the Very Small band, which DESNZ is revising from 2024 Q4, has no single post-2022 peak (it first peaked in 2023 Q2 and later went higher). This is one episode, affected by government support schemes, and is not a forecast.","numbers":{"lag":{"wholesalePeakMonth":"2022-08","wholesalePeakMonthValue":34.375,"wholesalePeakQuarter":"2022 Q3","wholesaleSeries":"ONS System Price of electricity (from Elexon BMRS). Contains BMRS data © Elexon Limited copyright and database right 2026.","bands":[{"band":"very_small","label":"Very small (0-20 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2024 Q4","peak":34.17891171840152,"q1_2021":17.414126679176007,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":96.27,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":9,"inLagRange":false,"firstPostShockPeakQuarter":"2023 Q2","firstPostShockPeak":34.013851551488806,"laterHigherQuarters":[["2024 Q4",34.17891171840152],["2025 Q2",37.073931272833974],["2025 Q3",37.35977389712957],["2025 Q4",36.10615660019574],["2026 Q1",35.02231745291495]],"note":"No single post-2022 peak: the band first peaked in 2023 Q2 and later went higher; DESNZ is revising this band from 2024 Q4, so it is left out of the lag range."},{"band":"small","label":"Small (20-499 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":34.57163556188797,"q1_2021":15.844767684155862,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":118.19,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"small_medium","label":"Small/medium (500-1,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":32.86286338142106,"q1_2021":14.9089854937535,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":120.42,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"medium","label":"Medium (2,000-19,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":30.97494457014431,"q1_2021":13.84328972695657,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":123.75,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"large","label":"Large (20,000-69,999 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q3","peak":29.37720305412184,"q1_2021":13.856939764505404,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":112,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":4,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"very_large","label":"Very large (70,000-150,000 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2024 Q1","peak":24.147883876004343,"q1_2021":13.048279648356433,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":85.07,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":6,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"extra_large","label":"Extra large (>150,000 MWh/yr)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":23.268303954029083,"q1_2021":14.529050992581572,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":60.15,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true},{"band":"average","label":"All non-domestic consumers (average)","peakQuarter":"2023 Q4","peak":28.388321798981593,"q1_2021":14.805948458905783,"riseFromQ1_2021Pct":91.74,"lagQuartersAfterWholesalePeak":5,"inLagRange":true}],"lagRangeBands":["small","small_medium","medium","large","very_large","extra_large"],"lagRangeQuarters":[4,6],"grade":"C","note":"One episode (2021-23), affected by the EBRS discounts (Oct 2022-Mar 2023) and EBDS (Apr 2023-Mar 2024); the system price is an imbalance price. A historical observation, not a forecast."}},"sourceNote":"DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices Table 3.4.2 (OGL v3.0); ONS system price (contains BMRS data © Elexon).","caveat":"EBRS discounts (Oct 2022-Mar 2023) and EBDS (Apr 2023-Mar 2024) lowered some measured prices; the system price is an imbalance price.","refs":["runningCost.measuredLag2021to2023"]},{"rank":21,"grade":"C","id":"june-2025-no-visible-it-effect","title":"June 2025: no visible move in IT prices","finding":"Brent's monthly average (World Bank) rose 11.4% from May to June 2025, the month of the Israel-Iran conflict (US$64.2 to US$71.5), below the study's threshold for a large rise; by December 2025 the average (US$62.7) was below May's. Three months on, IT and freight price indices were within about 3 points of their own trends: UK CPI 09.1.3: information processing equipment +0.0 points; UK import prices: C26 computer, electronic and optical +0.8 points; US import prices: computers, peripherals and semiconductors +0.9 points; US import air freight price +2.9 points.","numbers":{"ons_mm23_d7ep":{"chg3":-0.66,"excess3":0.04,"chg6":-1.45,"excess6":-0.05},"ons_ppi_g68q":{"chg3":0.71,"excess3":0.82,"chg6":1.27,"excess6":1.48},"BLS_EIUIR213":{"chg3":0.84,"excess3":0.91,"chg6":1.05,"excess6":1.2},"BLS_EIUIV131":{"chg3":3.39,"excess3":2.89,"chg6":10.8,"excess6":9.8}},"sourceNote":"World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0); ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain).","caveat":"Single short episode; the +12-month window runs into the 2026 conflict and the rise in memory-chip prices.","refs":["episodes[id=2025-june]"]},{"rank":22,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly","title":"UK non-domestic electricity, all consumers (p/kWh incl. CCL): link not robust","finding":"UK non-domestic electricity, all consumers (p/kWh incl. CCL): cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.243 (95% CI +0.108 to +0.377), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together. Oil and gas prices moved together over this period, so this is co-movement, not an oil-to-electricity mechanism.","numbers":{"label":"UK non-domestic electricity, all consumers (p/kWh incl. CCL)","elasticity":0.2426,"ci95":[0.1085,0.3767],"ci95Conservative":[0.075,0.4103],"n":88,"sample":["2004 Q2","2026 Q1"],"qBH":0.0018,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":2.339,"pre2026":0.2426,"from2010":0.2008},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_average_incl_ccl_quarterly].verdict"]},{"rank":23,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly","title":"UK non-domestic electricity, medium consumers: link not robust","finding":"UK non-domestic electricity, medium consumers: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.275 (95% CI +0.134 to +0.416), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together. Oil and gas prices moved together over this period, so this is co-movement, not an oil-to-electricity mechanism.","numbers":{"label":"UK non-domestic electricity, medium consumers","elasticity":0.2754,"ci95":[0.1343,0.4164],"ci95Conservative":[0.0991,0.4517],"n":88,"sample":["2004 Q2","2026 Q1"],"qBH":0.0007,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":2.659,"pre2026":0.2753,"from2010":0.2282},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=desnz_qep342_electricity_medium_incl_ccl_quarterly].verdict"]},{"rank":24,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-ons_sppi_hpzy","title":"UK SPPI: transport and storage: link not robust","finding":"UK SPPI: transport and storage: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.066 (95% CI +0.018 to +0.114), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together.","numbers":{"label":"UK SPPI: transport and storage","elasticity":0.0661,"ci95":[0.0183,0.1139],"ci95Conservative":[0.0063,0.1258],"n":70,"sample":["2009 Q1","2026 Q2"],"qBH":0.0241,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.632,"pre2026":0.0624,"from2010":0.0659},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hpzy].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hpzy].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hpzy].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hpzy].verdict"]},{"rank":25,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-ons_sppi_hqsl","title":"UK SPPI: other transport support (incl. freight forwarding): link not robust","finding":"UK SPPI: other transport support (incl. freight forwarding): cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.119 (95% CI +0.018 to +0.219), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together.","numbers":{"label":"UK SPPI: other transport support (incl. freight forwarding)","elasticity":0.1189,"ci95":[0.0183,0.2195],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0068,0.2446],"n":121,"sample":["1996 Q2","2026 Q2"],"qBH":0.0635,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.14,"pre2026":0.1174,"from2010":0.1601},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_sppi_hqsl].verdict"]},{"rank":26,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-ons_ppi_ezsq","title":"UK import prices: C261 electronic components and boards: link not robust","finding":"UK import prices: C261 electronic components and boards: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.043 (95% CI +0.001 to +0.086), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together.","numbers":{"label":"UK import prices: C261 electronic components and boards","elasticity":0.0434,"ci95":[0.0013,0.0855],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0093,0.096],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.1125,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.414,"pre2026":0.0459,"from2010":0.0384},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_ezsq].verdict"]},{"rank":27,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-ons_ppi_eruz","title":"UK import prices: C2611 electronic components: link not robust","finding":"UK import prices: C2611 electronic components: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.049 (95% CI +0.008 to +0.090), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together.","numbers":{"label":"UK import prices: C2611 electronic components","elasticity":0.0488,"ci95":[0.0076,0.0901],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0027,0.1004],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.0635,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":0.467,"pre2026":0.0515,"from2010":0.0448},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eruz].verdict"]},{"rank":28,"grade":"C","id":"passthrough-ons_ppi_eru3","title":"UK import prices: aluminium: link not robust","finding":"UK import prices: aluminium: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.170 (95% CI +0.006 to +0.333), significant in the main sample but not robust to the conservative interval, the two alternative samples and the false-discovery correction together.","numbers":{"label":"UK import prices: aluminium","elasticity":0.1696,"ci95":[0.0063,0.3329],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0345,0.3737],"n":212,"sample":["2009-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.111,"verdict":"significant-not-robust","pctPer10pctBrent":1.629,"pre2026":0.165,"from2010":0.1729},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eru3].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eru3].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eru3].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_eru3].verdict"]},{"rank":29,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-ons_mm23_d7ep","title":"UK CPI 09.1.3: information processing equipment: no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"UK CPI 09.1.3: information processing equipment: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.034 (95% CI −0.112 to +0.180; conservative −0.148 to +0.216). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"UK CPI 09.1.3: information processing equipment","elasticity":0.0339,"ci95":[-0.1118,0.1796],"ci95Conservative":[-0.1482,0.216],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.7538,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.324,"pre2026":0.0279,"from2010":-0.0055},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_mm23_d7ep].verdict"]},{"rank":30,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-ons_ppi_g6t5","title":"UK PPI output: C26 computer, electronic and optical (domestic): no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"UK PPI output: C26 computer, electronic and optical (domestic): cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.009 (95% CI −0.068 to +0.086; conservative −0.088 to +0.105). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"UK PPI output: C26 computer, electronic and optical (domestic)","elasticity":0.0087,"ci95":[-0.0684,0.0858],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0877,0.105],"n":367,"sample":["1996-02","2026-08"],"qBH":0.8728,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.083,"pre2026":0.0065,"from2010":0.0132},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g6t5].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g6t5].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g6t5].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g6t5].verdict"]},{"rank":31,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-ons_ppi_g333","title":"UK PPI output: C262 computers and peripherals: no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"UK PPI output: C262 computers and peripherals: cumulative 12-month elasticity −0.058 (95% CI −0.208 to +0.092; conservative −0.245 to +0.129). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"UK PPI output: C262 computers and peripherals","elasticity":-0.0579,"ci95":[-0.2078,0.0919],"ci95Conservative":[-0.2453,0.1294],"n":367,"sample":["1996-02","2026-08"],"qBH":0.6136,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":-0.551,"pre2026":-0.0688,"from2010":-0.0028},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ons_ppi_g333].verdict"]},{"rank":32,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EU27_2020_I25","title":"EU27 HICP: information processing equipment: no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"EU27 HICP: information processing equipment: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.039 (95% CI −0.016 to +0.094; conservative −0.030 to +0.108). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"EU27 HICP: information processing equipment","elasticity":0.0388,"ci95":[-0.0165,0.094],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0303,0.1078],"n":152,"sample":["2014-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.3143,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.37,"pre2026":0.029,"from2010":0.0388},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EU27_2020_I25].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EU27_2020_I25].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EU27_2020_I25].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EU27_2020_I25].verdict"]},{"rank":33,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01","title":"US CPI: computers, peripherals and smart home assistants: no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"US CPI: computers, peripherals and smart home assistants: cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.028 (95% CI −0.085 to +0.142; conservative −0.114 to +0.170). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"US CPI: computers, peripherals and smart home assistants","elasticity":0.0282,"ci95":[-0.0854,0.1418],"ci95Conservative":[-0.1138,0.1702],"n":342,"sample":["1998-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.744,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.269,"pre2026":0.0192,"from2010":0.0371},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_CUUR0000SEEE01].verdict"]},{"rank":34,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-BLS_EIUIV131","title":"US import air freight price: no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"US import air freight price: cumulative 12-month elasticity −0.023 (95% CI −0.368 to +0.322; conservative −0.454 to +0.408). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"US import air freight price","elasticity":-0.0231,"ci95":[-0.3679,0.3217],"ci95Conservative":[-0.4541,0.4079],"n":246,"sample":["2006-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.9054,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":-0.22,"pre2026":-0.0329,"from2010":-0.0934},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=BLS_EIUIV131].verdict"]},{"rank":35,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-bls_pcu488510488510","title":"US PPI: freight transport arrangement (forwarding): no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"US PPI: freight transport arrangement (forwarding): cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.098 (95% CI −0.005 to +0.201; conservative −0.031 to +0.226). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"US PPI: freight transport arrangement (forwarding)","elasticity":0.0978,"ci95":[-0.005,0.2006],"ci95Conservative":[-0.0307,0.2263],"n":368,"sample":["1996-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.1444,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.937,"pre2026":0.0942,"from2010":0.1376},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu488510488510].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu488510488510].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu488510488510].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=bls_pcu488510488510].verdict"]},{"rank":36,"grade":"C-null","id":"passthrough-bls_eiuic131","title":"US inbound air freight price (all carriers): no detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out","finding":"US inbound air freight price (all carriers): cumulative 12-month elasticity +0.051 (95% CI −0.197 to +0.299; conservative −0.259 to +0.361). No detectable link in these data, but the conservative interval is too wide to rule out a modest one.","numbers":{"label":"US inbound air freight price (all carriers)","elasticity":0.0511,"ci95":[-0.1966,0.2988],"ci95Conservative":[-0.2586,0.3607],"n":246,"sample":["2006-01","2026-08"],"qBH":0.7878,"verdict":"null-imprecise","pctPer10pctBrent":0.488,"pre2026":0.0342,"from2010":-0.0144},"sourceNote":"See passThrough for the source of each series.","refs":["passThrough[seriesId=bls_eiuic131].cumElasticity12","passThrough[seriesId=bls_eiuic131].ci95","passThrough[seriesId=bls_eiuic131].ci95Conservative","passThrough[seriesId=bls_eiuic131].verdict"]}],"findingGrades":{"A":"Directly measured from official data; no model.","B":"Statistical estimate robust across samples with a false-discovery-controlled q < 0.05 (or a descriptive pooled count across many episodes).","B-null":"Precisely estimated absence of a link (conservative interval within +/-0.1).","A-confounded":"Directly measured, but the movement overlaps a documented non-oil driver (memory prices, tariffs).","Illustrative":"Labelled arithmetic on sourced inputs; not a measurement, quote or forecast.","C":"Single episode, or significant in the main sample only; treat as suggestive. A single-episode observation is never graded A.","C-null":"No detectable link, but too imprecise to rule one out."},"caveats":["Correlation is not causation. The regressions measure how index changes have co-moved with earlier changes in the World Bank Brent monthly average; they do not isolate the effect of oil from demand cycles, exchange rates, memory-chip prices, tariffs or product mix.","Brent is measured as the World Bank monthly average of daily spot prices, the only Brent series charted or published in the CSV files. The Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA, daily; upstream Refinitiv), futures settlements and intraday highs quoted in news reports are different measures and are not comparable.","The 2026 episode is short: monthly indices have +3 and +6 month readings (to August 2026) and quarterly indices one or two post-outbreak quarters. No +12 month reading exists yet.","The 2026 baseline is February 2026, the last full pre-conflict month; EIA attributes the January-February 2026 rise in front-month Brent futures to conflict risk (EIA Today in Energy, 7 Apr 2026). December 2025 is shown as a sensitivity baseline.","Single-month endpoints can mislead for volatile monthly indices (for example UK CPI 09.1.3 and the CPI item segments), so year-on-year changes and three-month averages are reported beside them.","A rise in memory-chip (DRAM/NAND) prices was under way during 2025 (TrendForce: 4Q25 conventional DRAM contract prices +45-50% quarter on quarter) and overlaps the 2026 conflict. The vendor statements and filings reviewed cite memory and component costs, and none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases. Memory-sensitive series are flagged.","US tariff actions (2025-26) changed the price of some imported goods; computers, parts, smartphones, SSDs and chips were largely exempted, but not all electronics.","CPI indices for PCs, laptops, tablets and smartphones are quality-adjusted (hedonic), so they measure constant-quality prices, not shelf prices.","ONS PPI and SPPI were corrected in October 2025 after a chain-linking error and are currently \"official statistics\" rather than accredited; July-August 2026 PPI is provisional. US PPI from May 2026 is preliminary.","Percentage changes computed from index levels published to one decimal place can differ by about 0.1 percentage point from rates published by ONS. Every percentage in the text is rounded once, from the unrounded value.","Record and \"largest since\" statements compare the current move with every other window of the same length in the series, including windows that overlap it or began before the baseline.","CPI item-level (consumption segment) series are Servnet chain-links of non-accredited, small-sample ONS indices; use for direction only.","DESNZ non-domestic electricity prices end at Q1 2026 (provisional), which contains only one conflict month (March). Q2 2026 is due on 29 September 2026. Many businesses are on fixed-price contracts, so wholesale moves reach them with a lag.","The 2021-23 lag between wholesale and business electricity prices is one episode, affected by government support schemes (EBRS, EBDS); it is a historical observation, not a forecast.","The GB electricity system price is an imbalance price, not the forward or day-ahead price business contracts track.","The running-cost model is illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast. Measured idle power is a floor and the PSU rating a ceiling; real draw lies between and depends on workload. PUE figures are industry averages from 2023. DESNZ price bands depend on the whole site's consumption.","HMRC mode of transport is the mode at the UK border: goods trucked from EU hubs appear as road/ro-ro even if they left Asia by sea or air. 20-43% of non-EU IT import value in most months has no verified mode; bounds are reported, and \"most\" is not used unless the lower bound exceeds 50%.","HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin, so Gulf shares of UK imports are lower bounds. Aluminium and polymer shares are by weight (net mass).","EIA 2026 Hormuz and Malacca flow volumes are EIA estimates; EIA says ship-tracking data have been unreliable since late February 2026. EIA's Malacca Table 3 and Table 2 give different 2025 Q4 values (24.0 and 24.9 million b/d).","Hormuz transit counts come from JMIC advisories (single facts); IMF PortWatch was not used because its terms do not allow redistribution in a CC BY dataset, and counts from proprietary trackers are not reproduced.","EIA spot-price series (Brent, WTI, jet fuel) are EIA-published with an upstream source of Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution is pending EIA confirmation. They are used in the analysis, but their observations are not published in the JSON or the CSV files; only derived statistics and single dated facts are quoted.","Bank of England exchange-rate series were not used because some are excluded from its open licence; Federal Reserve (USD/GBP, USD/EUR) and ECB (GBP/EUR) rates are used instead.","US CPI and import price values for October 2025 were not published (US government shutdown); affected monthly changes are dropped, not filled.","Eurostat HICP moved to ECOICOP 2 in 2026: information processing equipment is CP0813 (2025=100); the old CP0913 series ended in December 2025.","The regressions test many indices; Benjamini-Hochberg q-values are reported to limit false discoveries. Individual significant results among many tests should be read with care.","Residual first-order autocorrelation (residualRho1, the Pearson correlation of consecutive regression residuals) reaches about 0.5-0.62 (to 2 dp) for 6 of 93 regressions (maximum ESTAT_HICP_CP0813_EA_I25); Newey-West standard errors allow for this, and the conservative interval widens them further.","US freight producer price series (deep-sea freight, scheduled air freight, freight arrangement) and the BLS inbound air-freight index use their full BLS history (re-downloaded 19 Sep 2026); regressions start in 1996-01 or at the series start.","UK CPI observations before 1996 are ONS back-series estimates, not official CPI outturns; the regressions start in 1996.","Newey-West intervals can be too narrow in finite samples; verdicts use intervals widened by 1.25 (see method).","Nothing here is a forecast of oil, energy, freight or IT prices, or investment advice, and third-party forecasts are not reproduced. The study is neutral on the conflict and reports no casualty figures."],"gaps":{"timeline":["Reuters, AP, Financial Times and Bloomberg pages could not be retrieved directly (Reuters 401, AP 403, FT/Bloomberg paywalls). Their reporting appears only where republished with attribution by CNBC, Al Jazeera, PBS or NPR. Where one of an event's two sources is Reuters- or AP-derived, the other is an official body or a different outlet where possible.","The US Central Command website blocks automated retrieval. CENTCOM statements (blockade start 13 Apr; resumption from 14 Jul, announced in a 13 Jul release; the 4 May ship-escort effort) are cited by their CENTCOM URLs.","Operation names used by the parties are not reproduced in this study. No Iranian government or IRGC primary sources were retrieved; Iranian statements are cited only as reported by the outlets listed.","Brent prices mentioned in events are limited to one price fact per event, each labelled with its measure (World Bank monthly average, EIA daily spot, or futures as reported by a named outlet or stated by EIA). The measures are not comparable: EIA gives the 2Q26 front-month futures high as $118/b on 29 Apr, while the Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA) peaked at $138.21 on 7 Apr. The World Bank monthly series is used for all analysis; event price facts are never charted and never included in the CSV files.","Hormuz transit counts are taken from JMIC advisories as single facts. Counts from proprietary trackers (S&P Global, Kpler, Windward, Lloyd's List Intelligence, Xeneta) are not reproduced, and IMF PortWatch was not used.","UKMTO/JMIC: the UKMTO product index is rendered by script, so JMIC advisory PDFs were retrieved one by one: the advisories of 28 February to 16 March 2026 and Updates 024 (26 Mar), 068 (7 Jul), 092 (1 Sep) and 096 (13 Sep). Other JMIC notes, such as the reported widening of the route near Oman on 27 Jun and the Bab el-Mandeb warning of 21 Jul, are cited only through news reports.","Reported mainly by Wikipedia but not confirmed by two reputable sources in this run, so they are omitted: a reported 19 Mar US air campaign to reopen the strait; a 27 Mar IRGC ban on vessels to or from US/Israeli/allied ports; the 1 Jun strike at Umm Qasr port; and individual tanker incidents beyond those listed.","The IEA's 21 July statement and its March and September Oil Market Reports were read only as free summaries. Full IEA data files are proprietary and were not downloaded.","Casualty figures in all sources are deliberately excluded, in line with the project's neutrality rules. Events that involved casualties are described without numbers.","UK-specific policy events (Ofgem price-cap announcements, fuel duty, UK sanctions instruments implementing the snapback) are listed only where they change published UK price figures. UK road fuel prices are taken from DESNZ weekly road fuel prices (OGL).","No source retrieved in this run gives a comprehensive list of damaged Gulf data centres beyond AWS (UAE, Bahrain) and the reported debris impact on Oracle's Dubai building. Other providers' facilities (Microsoft, Google, G42, telecoms operators such as Batelco) were named as threatened, but damage was not confirmed by two reputable sources.","Outlook statements (for example EIA STEO forecasts and analyst price targets) appear in the sources but are deliberately not reproduced as events, in line with the project's no-forecast rule.","Resolved by the check: GL U ran to 12:01 a.m. EDT on 19 April 2026 (Baker McKenzie; CNBC \"30-day\"); the MoU window ended on Monday 17 August 2026 (PBS/AP; Al Jazeera); the second AWS Bahrain incident was on 1 April 2026 (Network World and DCD, citing the FT and Bahrain's interior minister). The IRGC's claimed 21 July strike on AWS Bahrain remains an unverified claim.","Single-source items excluded, since no second independent source was found: Iran's announced temporary Hormuz closure for live-fire drills on 17 Feb 2026 (PBS/AP only); a drone strike causing a perimeter fire at the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant on 17 May 2026 (PBS/AP only; IAEA site blocked retrieval); Iran saying on 18 July that it was suspending its interim-deal commitments (PBS/AP only); the GCC-Iran meeting postponement on 14 Sep (Guardian only); Saudi ship-to-ship exports via Sohar (CNBC only); a remark by the US President on 16 Sep about the end of the conflict and an Axios-reported GCC meeting plan (CNBC only); the UAE lifting air-traffic restrictions on 3 May (Al Jazeera only); EGA expecting full Al Taweelah production by early 2027 (CNBC video only); Israel and Iran halting attacks on 8-9 June (CNBC only).","Removed as unsupported by the cited sources: Iraq force majeure at foreign-operated fields on 20 March and UAE output falling by more than half by 16 March (not in the EIA or IEA texts cited); an EIA figure of $74/b for 13 June 2025 (the $74.88 figure is NPR/AP); OPEC+ \"extending the compensation period to end-2026\" (not in the 7 June OPEC release); \"first confirmed military strike on a hyperscale cloud provider\" and \"IRGC said it targeted AWS Bahrain\" on 2 March (not in the cited pages); Gulf states urging IMO members to reject the PGSA (not visible in accessible Lloyd's List text).","Brent measures: the Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA) diverged sharply from front-month futures in April 2026 (spot high $138.21 on 7 Apr against a 2Q26 futures high of $118 on 29 Apr, EIA) and again in September (spot $130.80 on 15 Sep; CNBC reported the November futures contract at $104.28 on 17 Sep). The EIA spot series has an upstream Refinitiv (LSEG) licence caveat (see energy.json). For CC BY publication, use World Bank monthly averages and single quoted values with attribution.","Web-search budget: the check exhausted its search quota and a news-index API rate-limited it, so the following events have no third independent source beyond the two or more already cited: 2025-06-22 (Iran parliament and Hormuz), 2025-11-02, 2026-03-11 (Tasnim target list), 2026-03-31 (IRGC tech-company list; TIME and CBS blocked), 2026-04-05, 2026-06-11, 2026-08-02, 2026-09-06. Their cited sources were read and are consistent.","LNG restart: no complete, two-source timeline of when Qatari LNG output and exports resumed after March was found. Only the 8 April start of restart work and QatarEnergy's report of a start-up incident on 21 June are recorded.","Publisher terms: Guardian-only and BBC-only facts were not re-fetched after the terms were identified. Every Guardian or BBC citation in this file is paired with at least one other source."],"energy":["DESNZ non-domestic prices for Q2 2026, the first full conflict quarter, are not yet published (due 29 September 2026).","No openly licensed UK day-ahead or forward wholesale electricity price was collected; only the Elexon/ONS system (imbalance) price.","No UK or European jet fuel price from an openly licensed official source; only US Gulf Coast jet fuel (EIA).","EIA daily spot prices are licensed to EIA by Refinitiv/LSEG; redistribution of the daily series needs EIA confirmation.","No official data on data-centre electricity tariffs or power purchase agreements; DESNZ very large and extra large bands are the closest proxy.","Eurostat non-household energy prices end at 2025-S2 and the UK is not in Eurostat after 2019."],"analysis":["ENERGY STAR v4 records measured idle power but no full-load or typical-utilisation power, so server running cost is shown between an idle floor and a PSU ceiling.","No official UK PUE statistic was found; Uptime Institute industry figures for 2023 are used.","IMF PortWatch transit data could not be reused under its terms; Hormuz transit counts are single JMIC facts.","No open official memory (DRAM/NAND) price index exists; the memory confounder is shown through BLS/ONS indices and single cited facts.","The pass-through model has no demand, exchange-rate-expectation or memory-price control beyond the FX term and seasonal dummies.","The study does not measure chip prices by input (for example helium or other process gases), so it cannot show whether a disruption to one input has affected chip prices."],"ukItPrices":["ONS publishes no import price index for C262 computers and peripheral equipment (imports are published only at C26, C261 and C2611), and no import index for C263 communication equipment.","ONS publishes no air-freight SPPI (H512); H51 air transport combines passenger and freight. No ONS index tracks international container (deep-sea) freight rates; H502 covers sea and coastal freight sold to UK customers.","No ONS index is dedicated to enterprise servers, storage or network equipment bought by businesses, or to data-centre colocation; J631 data processing and hosting SPPI is the closest services measure.","SPPI is quarterly; Q3 2026 is due 21 October 2026, so only Q2 2026 is fully post-outbreak.","PPI July and August 2026 are provisional and revisable; the whole of the last 12 months can be revised.","This stream reports measured index changes only. It does not attribute 2026 IT price moves to oil or the conflict: exchange rates, semiconductor and memory pricing cycles, product mix and telecoms contract terms also move these indices.","CPIH equivalents identical to CPI (J2TZ, J2U3, J2U4, J2U5, J2U6, J2UC, J2UD, J2UE; L54I differs by 0.1 in 2 months) are not stored separately."],"intlItPrices":["Bank of England FX (XUMAUSS, XUMAERS, XUMABK67): the BoE legal page says the Database is under the Open Government Licence but excludes 'selected exchange rate data and series' held under third-party licence, and its spot-rate notes cite Bloomberg BFIX and LSEG with an LSEG no-redistribution notice. We could not confirm whether these series are excluded, so they are held under restrictedSeries and must not be redistributed. The published alternatives are the Federal Reserve H.10 monthly USD/GBP rate (public domain) and the ECB monthly GBP/EUR rate (ESCB reuse policy). To use BoE data, email BEEDSQueries@bankofengland.co.uk for confirmation.","Section 122 surcharge rate: secondary sources (law-firm and trade-monitor briefings) say the rate went from 10% to 15% on 22 Feb 2026. We found no Federal Register or White House document confirming this, so only the official 10% rate is recorded.","Vendor partner price notices: media reports of Dell raising server prices from 10 Dec 2025 and PC prices by 15-20%, Lenovo notifying partners of increases from Jan and Mar 2026, and Cisco list-price adjustments from 18 Apr 2026 are not backed by a public official vendor statement we could retrieve, so they are excluded. Cisco's earnings-call remarks on price increases (Feb 2026) are excluded for the same reason; only its 10-K text is used.","Dell Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript (official PDF on investors.delltechnologies.com) blocked automated download and could not be text-extracted. Dell's position is taken from its Form 10-Q for the quarter to 31 Jul 2026.","Samsung and SK hynix 2Q26 releases give no memory ASP percentage changes, only qualitative statements. Micron's 10-Q gives ranges, not point figures (DRAM ASP up in the low-60% range, NAND up in the mid-80% range, QoQ).","Memory contract price series (TrendForce, DRAMeXchange and similar) are proprietary and are not reproduced. Only single facts from free public TrendForce press releases are cited. We found no open-licence official statistic of DRAM or NAND prices.","BLS PPI for printed circuit assembly manufacturing (PCU334418334418) rose about 175% from Feb 2025 to Aug 2026. We could not verify from an official NAICS index whether this industry covers memory modules, so this series should not be read as a memory price index without that check.","BLS published no October 2025 values for CPI or import price indexes because of the 2025 lapse in US federal appropriations. These months are omitted and not interpolated. PPI series from May 2026 onward are preliminary and can be revised for up to four months.","PCU3344133344131 (IC packages) has no observations for Jun 2024 to Jul 2025 (and earlier gaps), so there is no Feb 2025 comparison for it.","EIUIZ3341 (import prices, NAICS 3341) starts Dec 2025 on a new base, and EIUIZ33441 starts Dec 2024, so neither has a long history.","Eurostat moved HICP to ECOICOP ver. 2 in 2026. Information processing equipment is now CP0813 (index 2025=100) and the old CP0913 series ends Dec 2025. The EU27 CP0813 aggregate starts only in Dec 2013 (euro area from Jan 1996). Eurostat publishes no UK HICP after 2020, so UK comparisons must use ONS data from the uk-it-prices stream.","Polysilicon Section 232 action (Proclamation 11052, 6 Aug 2026): the official fact sheet does not say whether semiconductor-grade wafers or chips are covered, so its effect on IT hardware is unconfirmed.","We found no official or free public source that directly links the 2026 Gulf conflict or oil prices to the rise in memory prices. The TrendForce releases of 31 Mar 2026 and 3 Jul 2026 do not mention energy, oil, the Middle East or freight. Helium and other gas-linked fab inputs were not assessed in this stream.","None of the official vendor statements reviewed gives oil or energy prices as a reason for IT hardware price increases. HPE cites logistics costs and attributes them to trade policy and geopolitical tensions, not fuel. This finding covers only the statements listed; other vendors (Apple, Microsoft Surface, Acer, ASUS, Fujitsu, NetApp, Pure Storage and others) were not reviewed.","US tariff actions were not assessed for EU or UK counterpart measures. Both apply WTO Information Technology Agreement zero tariffs to most IT goods, but this was not verified in this stream.","BLS flat-file catalogues on download.bls.gov returned HTTP 403 to automated requests. Series metadata came from data.bls.gov series pages (saved in raw/intl-it-prices/bls_catalog) and values from the BLS public API v2.","Micron fiscal Q4 2026 results (quarter to late Aug 2026) were not yet published at retrieval on 19 Sep 2026.","The Framework blog page shows no date for its original memory-pricing post. 'December 2025' comes from the post's update log."],"freightTrade":["IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volumes (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Cape of Good Hope) were NOT downloaded or reused. The dataset is licensed under the IMF Copyright and Usage terms (https://www.imf.org/en/about/copyright-and-terms), not CC BY. Its FAQ cites Kpler and the UN Global Platform as sources and asks users to contact copyright@imf.org about commercial redistribution. The general IMF terms also bar systematic or bulk automated download without permission. Republishing it inside a CC BY 4.0 dataset on a commercial site would need written IMF permission. Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transit facts are cited instead from public JMIC/UKMTO advisories.","No monthly Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope transit series from an openly licensed source was found. Only the qualitative JMIC statements on the Suez Canal are included.","ONS SPPI has no UK air-freight index (its H51 air transport index combines passenger and freight), and it is quarterly (latest 2026 Q2, released 22 Jul 2026). US BLS indices are the monthly air-freight comparators.","Eurostat publishes no EU-27 service producer price index for sea freight (H501_H502), road freight (H494) or cargo handling (H5224) in sts_sepp_q. Only H52 (warehousing and transport support) is included as the EU comparator.","The BLS inbound ocean-liner freight index was discontinued in 2008. There is no current official US index of import container freight rates, so US PPI deep-sea freight (a producer index for US-resident carriers) is used instead.","BLS import and export price indices for October 2025 were not published (US federal government shutdown).","HMRC does not collect mode of transport for EU arrivals before January 2022 (Intrastat), so EU mode shares start in 2022. Between 20% and 43% of non-EU IT import value in most months has no recorded port/location. HMRC coded that block as mode 00 (2019-21 and Nov 2022-Jul 2025), mode 10 sea (Jan-Oct 2022) and mode 40 air (from Aug 2025). This analysis treats it as unverified and reports bounds rather than assigning it a mode.","The HMRC mode of transport is the mode at the UK border. Goods shipped from Asia to an EU hub by sea or air and then trucked to the UK appear as roll-on roll-off from the EU. The first leg, and any exposure to Hormuz or the Red Sea on it, cannot be observed.","Goods that only transit Gulf air hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi) keep their original country of dispatch in HMRC data, so dependence on Gulf airspace and hub capacity cannot be measured from trade statistics.","Container and air freight rate series from Drewry, Freightos, TAC Index and Xeneta are proprietary, so only single dated facts from their free press releases are cited. No series was downloaded.","War-risk additional premium rates (percentage of hull value) for Gulf transits in 2026 were not found in a primary, freely licensed source and are omitted.","HMRC July 2026 data (latest month) and earlier recent months are subject to revision as late declarations arrive."]},"files":{"csv":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026.csv","episodesCsv":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-episodes.csv","passthroughCsv":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-passthrough.csv","now2026Csv":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-now2026.csv","readme":"/research/oil-prices-it-costs-2026-README.txt","script":"scripts/research/oil-it/analyse.py","fixesScript":"scripts/research/oil-it/apply_verify_fixes.py","selfCheck":"scripts/research/oil-it/verify.py","fixesMap":"data/research/oil-it-2026/FIXES.md"},"withheldSeries":[{"seriesId":"eia_brent_monthly","title":"Europe Brent spot price FOB (EIA), monthly (EIA unweighted average of daily closing spot prices)","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)","landingUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M","licenceLabel":"EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution pending EIA confirmation","usedFor":"analysis only (elasticities, % changes, single dated facts)","start":"1987-05","end":"2026-08","n":472,"note":"Observations are not published in this JSON or the CSV files, pending EIA confirmation of redistribution terms."},{"seriesId":"eia_wti_monthly","title":"Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB, monthly (EIA unweighted average of daily closing spot prices)","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)","landingUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=M","licenceLabel":"EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution pending EIA confirmation","usedFor":"analysis only (elasticities, % changes, single dated facts)","start":"1986-01","end":"2026-08","n":488,"note":"Observations are not published in this JSON or the CSV files, pending EIA confirmation of redistribution terms."},{"seriesId":"eia_jet_usgc_monthly","title":"US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price FOB, monthly (EIA unweighted average of daily closing spot prices)","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)","landingUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPJK_PF4_RGC_DPG&f=M","licenceLabel":"EIA-published; upstream source Refinitiv (LSEG); redistribution pending EIA confirmation","usedFor":"analysis only (elasticities, % changes, single dated facts)","start":"1990-04","end":"2026-08","n":437,"note":"Observations are not published in this JSON or the CSV files, pending EIA confirmation of redistribution terms."}],"series":{"ons_mm23_d7bt":{"title":"CPI INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100","label":"UK CPI: all items","unit":"index, 2015=100","frequency":"monthly","seasonalAdjustment":"not seasonally adjusted","publisher":"Office for National Statistics (ONS)","url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23/data","landingUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","licenceUrl":"https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/","attribution":"Source: Office for National Statistics, CPI INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100 (series ID D7BT). 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17-12","value":104.9},{"date":"2018-01","value":104.4},{"date":"2018-02","value":104.9},{"date":"2018-03","value":105},{"date":"2018-04","value":105.4},{"date":"2018-05","value":105.8},{"date":"2018-06","value":105.8},{"date":"2018-07","value":105.8},{"date":"2018-08","value":106.5},{"date":"2018-09","value":106.6},{"date":"2018-10","value":106.7},{"date":"2018-11","value":107},{"date":"2018-12","value":107.1},{"date":"2019-01","value":106.3},{"date":"2019-02","value":106.8},{"date":"2019-03","value":107},{"date":"2019-04","value":107.6},{"date":"2019-05","value":107.9},{"date":"2019-06","value":107.9},{"date":"2019-07","value":107.9},{"date":"2019-08","value":108.4},{"date":"2019-09","value":108.5},{"date":"2019-10","value":108.3},{"date":"2019-11","value":108.5},{"date":"2019-12","value":108.5},{"date":"2020-01","value":108.2},{"date":"2020-02","value":108.6},{"date":"2020-03","value":108.6},{"date":"2020-04","value":108.5},{"date":"2020-05","value":108.5},{"date":"2020-06","value":108.6},{"date":"2020-07","value":109.1},{"date":"2020-08","value":108.6},{"date":"2020-09","value":109.1},{"date":"2020-10","value":109.1},{"date":"2020-11","value":108.9},{"date":"2020-12","value":109.2},{"date":"2021-01","value":109},{"date":"2021-02","value":109.1},{"date":"2021-03","value":109.4},{"date":"2021-04","value":110.1},{"date":"2021-05","value":110.8},{"date":"2021-06","value":111.3},{"date":"2021-07","value":111.3},{"date":"2021-08","value":112.1},{"date":"2021-09","value":112.4},{"date":"2021-10","value":113.6},{"date":"2021-11","value":114.5},{"date":"2021-12","value":115.1},{"date":"2022-01","value":114.9},{"date":"2022-02","value":115.8},{"date":"2022-03","value":117.1},{"date":"2022-04","value":120},{"date":"2022-05","value":120.8},{"date":"2022-06","value":121.8},{"date":"2022-07","value":122.5},{"date":"2022-08","value":123.1},{"date":"2022-09","value":123.8},{"date":"2022-10","value":126.2},{"date":"2022-11","value":126.7},{"date":"2022-12","value":127.2},{"date":"2023-01","value":126.4},{"date":"2023-02","value":127.9},{"date":"2023-03","value":128.9},{"date":"2023-04","value":130.4},{"date":"2023-05","value":131.3},{"date":"2023-06","value":131.5},{"date":"2023-07","value":130.9},{"date":"2023-08","value":131.3},{"date":"2023-09","value":132},{"date":"2023-10","value":132},{"date":"2023-11","value":131.7},{"date":"2023-12","value":132.2},{"date":"2024-01","value":131.5},{"date":"2024-02","value":132.3},{"date":"2024-03","value":133},{"date":"2024-04","value":133.5},{"date":"2024-05","value":133.9},{"date":"2024-06","value":134.1},{"date":"2024-07","value":133.8},{"date":"2024-08","value":134.3},{"date":"2024-09","value":134.2},{"date":"2024-10","value":135},{"date":"2024-11","value":135.1},{"date":"2024-12","value":135.6},{"date":"2025-01","value":135.4},{"date":"2025-02","value":136},{"date":"2025-03","value":136.5},{"date":"2025-04","value":138.2},{"date":"2025-05","value":138.4},{"date":"2025-06","value":138.9},{"date":"2025-07","value":139},{"date":"2025-08","value":139.3},{"date":"2025-09","value":139.3},{"date":"2025-10","value":139.8},{"date":"2025-11","value":139.5},{"date":"2025-12","value":140.1},{"date":"2026-01","value":139.5},{"date":"2026-02","value":140.1},{"date":"2026-03","value":141},{"date":"2026-04","value":142.1},{"date":"2026-05","value":142.4},{"date":"2026-06","value":142.5},{"date":"2026-07","value":142.9},{"date":"2026-08","value":143.6}]},"ons_mm23_d7cs":{"title":"CPI 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Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.","retrieved":"2026-09-19T11:15:19Z","stream":"freight-trade","group":"uk-it-import-mode","inCsv":true,"redistribution":"open","licenceCaveat":null,"preliminary":null,"start":"2022-01","end":"2026-07","n":55,"file":"raw/freight-trade/derived/hmrc_it_imports_by_mode_monthly.csv","observationsFrom":"2022-01","observationsNote":"The JSON and the CSV both hold the full history.","observations":[{"date":"2022-01","value":0.6635229055718057},{"date":"2022-02","value":0.7144017835875427},{"date":"2022-03","value":0.6887098207703339},{"date":"2022-04","value":0.6761463925775111},{"date":"2022-05","value":0.6027037561786901},{"date":"2022-06","value":0.6338067989903925},{"date":"2022-07","value":0.5986784059797983},{"date":"2022-08","value":0.6270347812328213},{"date":"2022-09","value":0.6134750896823148},{"date":"2022-10","value":0.5631916873090332},{"date":"2022-11","value":0.6176235148062198},{"date":"2022-12","value":0.6323726425830173},{"date":"2023-01","value":0.7251359650975328},{"date":"2023-02","value":0.5616470799477628},{"date":"2023-03","value":0.5667718901617536},{"date":"2023-04","value":0.5773419598050546},{"date":"2023-05","value":0.5601636908460161},{"date":"2023-06","value":0.5457118270653563},{"date":"2023-07","value":0.5732742116447821},{"date":"2023-08","value":0.6001958148861839},{"date":"2023-09","value":0.609357853660606},{"date":"2023-10","value":0.7358621219272693},{"date":"2023-11","value":0.7195178904480336},{"date":"2023-12","value":0.6546548629794093},{"date":"2024-01","value":0.6406030316987228},{"date":"2024-02","value":0.5570212018558639},{"date":"2024-03","value":0.5981463334215207},{"date":"2024-04","value":0.6215327579568624},{"date":"2024-05","value":0.5758552557202153},{"date":"2024-06","value":0.61243590950901},{"date":"2024-07","value":0.5945831467634642},{"date":"2024-08","value":0.4910909433935422},{"date":"2024-09","value":0.6359904065977738},{"date":"2024-10","value":0.7310789447451983},{"date":"2024-11","value":0.6901142480881578},{"date":"2024-12","value":0.5978850857631768},{"date":"2025-01","value":0.6497092214316889},{"date":"2025-02","value":0.5938816078068035},{"date":"2025-03","value":0.6373018319890976},{"date":"2025-04","value":0.6451166038217001},{"date":"2025-05","value":0.6576490490385658},{"date":"2025-06","value":0.6288870114919053},{"date":"2025-07","value":0.6373707395437476},{"date":"2025-08","value":0.6083713123488996},{"date":"2025-09","value":0.6839948598915316},{"date":"2025-10","value":0.673755017805754},{"date":"2025-11","value":0.7349574246422793},{"date":"2025-12","value":0.63719311337616},{"date":"2026-01","value":0.6406492914173875},{"date":"2026-02","value":0.6387782980032684},{"date":"2026-03","value":0.5988964122261696},{"date":"2026-04","value":0.5951328710721356},{"date":"2026-05","value":0.5856682316362875},{"date":"2026-06","value":0.591501300122059},{"date":"2026-07","value":0.5862916700341654}]},"derived_air_share_8523_all_verified_basis":{"title":"Air share of UK import value, Storage media incl. solid-state (flash/SSD) devices, dispatch ALL: share of mode-verified value","label":null,"unit":"ratio (0-1)","frequency":"monthly","seasonalAdjustment":"not seasonally adjusted","publisher":"Servnet calculation from HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk datasets","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/media/gnwbtkye/bdsimp2607.zip","landingUrl":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/latest-bulk-data-sets/bulk-data-sets-archive/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","licenceUrl":"https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/","attribution":"Source: HM Revenue & Customs, Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet). 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Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.","retrieved":"2026-09-19T11:15:19Z","stream":"freight-trade","group":"uk-it-import-mode","inCsv":true,"redistribution":"open","licenceCaveat":null,"preliminary":null,"start":"2022-01","end":"2026-07","n":55,"file":"raw/freight-trade/derived/hmrc_it_imports_by_mode_monthly.csv","observationsFrom":"2022-01","observationsNote":"The JSON and the CSV both hold the full history.","observations":[{"date":"2022-01","value":0.6994901497234018},{"date":"2022-02","value":0.7892216981958001},{"date":"2022-03","value":0.7630044217383735},{"date":"2022-04","value":0.861633944948354},{"date":"2022-05","value":0.7583859528446032},{"date":"2022-06","value":0.833770205897942},{"date":"2022-07","value":0.7323788464046784},{"date":"2022-08","value":0.803551666119103},{"date":"2022-09","value":0.7667971194295234},{"date":"2022-10","value":0.7443257588672987},{"date":"2022-11","value":0.7399471639545737},{"date":"2022-12","value":0.8022899207066335},{"date":"2023-01","value":0.8604617214668018},{"date":"2023-02","value":0.8704262287815425},{"date":"2023-03","value":0.8310796067852031},{"date":"2023-04","value":0.8908521977660849},{"date":"2023-05","value":0.8278957805185415},{"date":"2023-06","value":0.7935595005915932},{"date":"2023-07","value":0.8320286722356255},{"date":"2023-08","value":0.8596434203131041},{"date":"2023-09","value":0.7906805118792034},{"date":"2023-10","value":0.8563035977073593},{"date":"2023-11","value":0.7859308296572278},{"date":"2023-12","value":0.7626982627903452},{"date":"2024-01","value":0.8706359692612844},{"date":"2024-02","value":0.825556416575961},{"date":"2024-03","value":0.7885071191974345},{"date":"2024-04","value":0.785884899438466},{"date":"2024-05","value":0.7467566035492148},{"date":"2024-06","value":0.7622975077746976},{"date":"2024-07","value":0.7653855031881824},{"date":"2024-08","value":0.7860719749642542},{"date":"2024-09","value":0.7309561132710392},{"date":"2024-10","value":0.7251726290304545},{"date":"2024-11","value":0.7692787857543072},{"date":"2024-12","value":0.7873570958901164},{"date":"2025-01","value":0.6866463731224965},{"date":"2025-02","value":0.7250567198899835},{"date":"2025-03","value":0.6793436334904508},{"date":"2025-04","value":0.6270780369520068},{"date":"2025-05","value":0.7161396530210514},{"date":"2025-06","value":0.6726089102793316},{"date":"2025-07","value":0.690795324581583},{"date":"2025-08","value":0.6540508681558841},{"date":"2025-09","value":0.6677504047646646},{"date":"2025-10","value":0.6865699258802693},{"date":"2025-11","value":0.7707525530453659},{"date":"2025-12","value":0.7257970229341291},{"date":"2026-01","value":0.7039240210390239},{"date":"2026-02","value":0.801234531321445},{"date":"2026-03","value":0.7607476496213005},{"date":"2026-04","value":0.7636014058347453},{"date":"2026-05","value":0.7811413092090026},{"date":"2026-06","value":0.7471254982112815},{"date":"2026-07","value":0.8159289385092755}]},"derived_air_share_all_all_lower_bound":{"title":"Air share of UK import value, All five IT headings (HS 8471, 8473, 8517, 8523, 8542), dispatch ALL: lower bound (unverified value counted as not air)","label":null,"unit":"ratio (0-1)","frequency":"monthly","seasonalAdjustment":"not seasonally adjusted","publisher":"Servnet calculation from HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics bulk datasets","url":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/media/gnwbtkye/bdsimp2607.zip","landingUrl":"https://www.uktradeinfo.com/trade-data/latest-bulk-data-sets/bulk-data-sets-archive/","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","licenceUrl":"https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/","attribution":"Source: HM Revenue & Customs, Overseas Trade Statistics (derived by Servnet). 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