Oil prices, the 2026 conflict involving Iran and the cost of IT: UK, US and EU price data since 1996

What this study found

This study tests whether the rise in oil prices after the conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026 has reached what UK organisations pay for IT. It uses open official data: 93 price series from the UK, US and EU, eight oil price episodes since 2008, HMRC trade records and DESNZ energy prices. Between February and August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%, but UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with it; over samples starting in 1996 or 2009, three IT hardware indices show no detectable link with oil. Fuel prices, UK plastics and aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series show a robust link with oil. In 2026 Q2, UK freight-related transport support prices (SPPI H5229) had their largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996. Producer prices for computers rose, coinciding with the rise in memory-chip prices. The study makes no forecasts. It sets out what has moved, what has not, and what IT budget holders can check.

Naming: this study refers to “the conflict involving Iran (from 28 February 2026)”. It reports dated, sourced events that matter for energy, shipping and IT, without casualty figures or attribution of blame. It makes no forecasts and gives no investment advice.

What moved, what did not, and how sure we are

1. AUK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not rise with oil in 2026. From February to August 2026 the Brent monthly average (World Bank) rose 27.8%, while UK import prices for computer, electronic and optical products changed −1.8% and UK consumer prices for information processing equipment were 2.5% lower in August than a year earlier.
   Source: ONS (OGL v3.0); World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0).
2. A-confoundedProducer prices for computers did rise: UK C262 by 15.2% and US computer and peripheral equipment by 18.1% from February to August 2026. Both began rising before the conflict (C262 +5.6% and US PPI +2.9% in the three months to February 2026); most of the US rise came after April (index 63.4 in April, 74.5 in August). The rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices; the vendor statements and filings reviewed cite memory and component costs, and none gives oil or energy as a reason for price increases.
   Source: ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); vendor statements and company filings (SEC EDGAR).
3. B-nullSince 1996 (since 2009 for UK C26 import prices), three IT hardware price indices show no detectable link with oil: even conservative intervals rule out more than about a 1% move per 10% move in the Brent monthly average for UK C26 import prices (+0.004), US import prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors (+0.020) and US producer prices for computers (+0.031). For the main consumer IT indices (UK CPI 09.1.3, US CPI computers, and euro-area and EU27 HICP information processing equipment) the data cannot rule out a modest link.
   Source: ONS (OGL v3.0); U.S. BLS (public domain); Eurostat; World Bank (CC BY 4.0).
4. BFuel prices, UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series (US deep-sea and scheduled air freight, UK road freight) show a robust link with oil. A 10% higher Brent monthly average (World Bank) has been followed within 12 months by about 2.2% higher US producer prices for deep-sea freight (elasticity +0.227, 95% CI +0.131 to +0.323) and about 2.2% higher UK import prices for plastics in primary forms (+0.229, 95% CI +0.119 to +0.340). US air-freight import price indices, US freight transport arrangement, UK cargo handling and UK sea and coastal freight show no detectable link.
   Source: U.S. BLS (public domain); ONS (OGL v3.0); DESNZ (OGL v3.0); World Bank (CC BY 4.0).
5. AUK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, the largest quarterly rise since the series began in 1996. ONS attributes the rise in transport and storage prices mainly to higher shipping rates and fuel charges resulting from the conflict.
   Source: ONS services producer price indices and bulletin of 22 July 2026 (OGL v3.0).
6. A (2026 prices); C (2021-23 lag)Business electricity had moved little by 2026 Q1, which includes only one month after the conflict began: the average UK non-domestic price was 24.14p/kWh against 23.99p in 2025 Q4, while the GB wholesale system price rose 64.6% from February to August 2026. In 2021-23 the average business price peaked five quarters after the wholesale system price (4-6 quarters across the size bands from Small to Extra Large); that is one episode, affected by government support schemes, and not a forecast.
   Source: DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices (OGL v3.0); ONS system price (contains BMRS data © Elexon).
7. ADirect Gulf exposure is small; exposure to air freight is not. 0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 was dispatched from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (a lower bound: HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin), while between 47.5% and 67.9% arrived by air (59.7% of value with a verified mode).
   Source: HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (OGL v3.0), derived by Servnet.

What happened

The conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026, the start date used by the IEA and EIA. EIA estimates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about three-quarters between 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q2 (−77.3%), and LNG flows by about 92% (EIA estimates; ship-tracking data unreliable since late February 2026). The Brent monthly average (World Bank) peaked in April 2026 at US$120.4 a barrel, 69.3% above February, and was US$90.9 in August 2026. The timeline lists dated, sourced events that matter for energy, shipping and IT, without casualty figures; attacks are attributed only as the parties or official bodies reported them.

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EIA, STEO Energy Security Data Supplement (Table 2; EIA notes ship-tracking data have been unreliable since late February 2026, and its Malacca detail table gives 24.0 for 2025 Q4). Current status (19 September 2026): The conflict involving Iran that began on 28 February 2026 was continuing in mid-September, with no ceasefire in force (CNBC, 17 Sep; PBS/AP). The 17 June memorandum of understanding broke down in July and its 60-day window ended on 17 August (PBS/AP). The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has been in force again since 14 July (CENTCOM release of 13 July), and the US and Iran exchanged strikes on 30 August and from 1 September (NPR; CNBC). Hormuz traffic: JMIC (Update 096, 13 Sep) recorded 70 US-facilitated transits over 10-12 September (about 23 a day) against a 2025 baseline of about 138 a day, plus 1-10 non-facilitated cargo-vessel and 0-4 tanker transits a day over 6-12 September; ship trackers differ in what they count. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the main Hormuz bypass, was shut on 11 September (JMIC; CNBC); on 14 September PBS/AP reported it would be mostly out of service for several weeks. The IEA says Ras Laffan has been offline since the 2 March attack (IEA topic page, September 2026). The Houthis were reported on 11 September to have taken control of Yemen's Red Sea coast next to Bab el-Mandeb (Al Jazeera; NPR). Seven OPEC+ countries kept October production requirements unchanged (OPEC, 6 Sep). AWS said on 15 September that data held only in its Bahrain Region (me-south-1) or only in the UAE zone mec1-az2 cannot be restored (AWS Health Dashboard).

Related: Gulf cloud-region events and disaster-recovery guidance

What moved and what did not

Measured from February to August 2026 against each index's own history, fuel prices, most freight price indices, and plastics and aluminium prices rose, while UK import and consumer price indices for IT equipment did not. US and euro-area consumer IT prices and UK and US producer prices for computers did rise, and those rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices that was under way during 2025 (TrendForce: 4Q25 conventional DRAM contract prices +45-50% quarter on quarter). Record claims compare every window of the same length in each series, including windows that overlap 2026.

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“Before the conflict” is February 2026 for monthly series and 2025 Q4 for quarterly ones. † Memory-sensitive series: their 2026 rises coincide with the rise in memory-chip prices. Full table of 124 series in the 2026 changes CSV.

Related: memory-driven server price rises · memory prices · memory prices and UK hardware · memory prices and purchasing

Pass-through evidence

To look beyond one episode, the study estimates how each index has moved in the 12 months after changes in the Brent monthly average (World Bank), from 1996 or the start of each series, controlling for seasonality and, for UK and EU series, exchange rates. The same model finds the expected link for fuels, for example UK sterling import prices for crude oil (elasticity +1.040). UK prices for plastics in primary forms, UK aluminium producer prices and 3 of 16 freight and transport price series (US deep-sea and scheduled air freight, UK road freight) also show robust links; US air-freight import price indices, US freight transport arrangement, UK cargo handling and UK sea and coastal freight show no detectable link. Three IT hardware indices show no detectable link, and the main consumer IT indices are too imprecise to rule out a modest one. Correlation is not causation: the estimates describe how prices have moved together, not why.

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Correlation is not causation: these estimates measure how each index has moved after changes in oil, controlling for the exchange rate, and do not separate oil from demand, memory prices, tariffs or product mix. All 93 regressions are in the pass-through CSV; oil-shock episode responses in the episodes CSV.

Freight and trade

Several freight price indices rose in 2026. UK producer prices for other transport support services, which include freight forwarding (SPPI H5229), rose 23.9% in 2026 Q2 on the previous quarter, and US import air-freight prices rose 21.2% from February to August 2026. HMRC data show that between 47.5% and 67.9% of UK IT import value arrived by air in 2025, and that 0.95% was dispatched from the six GCC states (a lower bound: HMRC records the country of dispatch, not origin).

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Between 47.5% and 67.9% of UK IT import value arrived by air in 2025 (59.7% of the value with a verified mode), against 33.2% for all goods. For IT goods dispatched from outside the EU the verified air share was 84.4% (bounds 58.6% to 89.2%). Mode is recorded at the UK border. Source: HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (OGL v3.0), Servnet calculation. “Verified” counts only value with a recorded port or location; bounds allocate the unverified value entirely to other modes or to air. Goods dispatched from the six GCC states were 0.95% of UK IT import value in 2025 and 0.73% in January–July 2026 (dispatch country, a lower bound on Gulf origin).

Related: supply-chain timing

Materials and Gulf exposure

The Gulf supplies materials used in IT hardware: on USGS estimates, Bahrain and the UAE produced 5.8% of the world's primary aluminium in 2025, and Qatar 33% of its helium. UK import prices for plastics in primary forms rose 23.4% and UK aluminium producer prices 17.7% from February to August 2026. The GCC-dispatched share of UK unwrought aluminium imports by weight (a lower bound) fell to 15.3% in April and 14.2% in June 2026, the lowest since June 2023, before returning to 28.4% in July (2025: 31.0%; 2023-25 monthly range 12-47%).

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Why each matters for IT, and each source link, are in the JSON dataset (exposure). USGS and EIA figures are US public domain; HMRC shares are Servnet calculations from OGL data and count dispatch country, so Gulf shares are lower bounds.

Energy and running costs

Wholesale energy prices rose in 2026: the GB electricity system price by 64.6% and the GB gas system average price by 88.8% from February to August. The latest DESNZ business electricity prices, for 2026 Q1 (which includes only one month after the conflict began), show little change, and 2026 Q2 prices are due on 29 September 2026. The running-cost figures are illustrative arithmetic, not a quote or forecast, and use the DESNZ price band that matches the load.

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Illustrative arithmetic on sourced inputs, not a measurement or quote: annual cost (GBP) = watts x 8,760 h / 1,000 x PUE x price (p/kWh) / 100 Prices are DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices table 3.4.2, non-domestic electricity including the Climate Change Levy (OGL v3.0); 2026 Q2 prices are due on 29 September 2026. Idle power is the ENERGY STAR median for 2-socket rack servers (a floor: working servers draw more); PUE 1.58 is the Uptime Institute 2023 industry average.

Related: worked running-cost example (same DESNZ tables) · calculate your own load · rack power planning

What this means for IT budgets

These data show where IT costs have moved with oil and where they have not. Organisations planning IT budgets can check when their energy contracts renew and which DESNZ price band their sites fall into. They can review freight, fuel-surcharge and delivery terms on hardware orders. They can budget memory-sensitive items, such as servers, storage and SSDs, separately from energy and freight costs. And they can test recovery plans for any workloads hosted in the affected Gulf cloud regions. None of this is a forecast or advice on when to buy.

Related: budget planning steps · refresh planning · cost comparison

How the study was built

Servnet's derived statistics and compilation: CC BY 4.0. Each third-party series keeps its own licence, given in the licence and attribution columns. ECB values are unmodified and may not be modified. BMRS-derived values carry the Elexon attribution requirement. Credit “Servnet, Oil prices and the cost of IT 2026”. Downloads: all series (CSV) · 2026 changes · pass-through · episodes · licences and attributions · JSON.

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