The UK public sector IT contract expiry cliff: 9,416 contracts, 1,430 buyer names, one month
Every award notice on Contracts Finder and the Find a Tender Service that a pre-registered CPV rule counts as IT and whose published end date falls in the 12 months to 24 September 2027, taken from the full published history of both services. 9,416 contracts, 1,430 distinct buyer names, and one month that carries 22.1% of them.
Updated 25 September 2026 · Contracts Finder and Find a Tender daily bulk files, snapshot 25 September 2026, n = 9,416 · method and dataset below
What these figures are, and what they are not
- Every GBP figure is a floor on published, valued, sterling notices. 8,928 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts state a positive sterling amount; the rest state zero, a negative figure, another currency or nothing, and are excluded rather than estimated.
- The same figure is also an over-count of committed spend. A framework agreement states a ceiling shared across every appointed supplier, and the call-offs placed under it are published separately and counted too, so the figures are not additive.
- The largest single notice is 39.19% of the £130.13 bn stated on the 8,928 valued contracts, and the largest ten are 71.32%. One buyer, Crown Commercial Service, carries 69.7% of it. The median of those 8,928 valued contracts is £108,068. Any total or mean describes the frameworks, not the estate.
- A stated contract end date is not the date a contract ends. Extensions, options and early termination are invisible in published notices. The study measures what buyers published.
- Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices PUBLISHED from 24 February 2025, so its contribution is built on 19 months of publishing. That is a publication limit, not a signature one: 19 rows in the dataset were signed before that date and reached it through a later Procurement Act notice. What the service cannot see is a contract whose only notice predates the regime.
- The buyer count is of distinct NORMALISED names: 1,613 spellings as published collapse to 1,430 keys. The Cabinet Office register holds 7,753 registrations covering 7,337 distinct names as published (7,132 after the same normalisation), and is not a superset of notice publishers, so 'M of the 7,753 registered public buyers' cannot be supported and is not claimed. The register's own identifier does appear on notices and does resolve - 2,340 rows carry one and all of them join - but it is published too rarely, and too often against a different registered name, to be a denominator either.
- The pre-registered any-CPV field rule counts a large non-IT contract whole if it carries a single IT sub-code, and that is most of the money: 52.1% of the stated total sits on 270 contracts whose PRIMARY CPV code is outside CPV divisions 30, 32, 48 and 72, the largest being a Crown Commercial Service electricity and gas supply framework classified to CPV division 09. This pushes the total up, the opposite direction from the floor caveat. The primary-CPV sensitivity bounds it at £62.09 bn and is reported beside the headline.
- The published data contains impossible figures that were counted, not silently kept. Across the whole Contracts Finder harvest: 51 award rows state a contract end date after 2060 and 6 before 2000, and 23 state a negative award value, the largest minus £30,000,000,000 - the minus £4bn row is simply the one that falls inside this window and basket. 18 bulk files are served by the publisher as a saved error page, and 38 notices are published as malformed XML - 34 of them truncated at source and unrecoverable, 4 repaired by adding the namespace declaration the publisher omitted.
- The window is anchored to the retrieval date, 25 September 2026. Moving it by a few days moves contracts across its edges.
- Pipeline notices - planned future procurement under the Procurement Act 2023 - are the opposite of an expiring contract. 10,413 were found and every one was kept out.
What the two services, read together, show
Contracts Finder and the Find a Tender Service both publish UK public sector procurement notices as they happen, and both let you search by the date a notice was published. Neither turns that around and shows what is about to reach its end date. This study inverts the axis: it takes the whole published back catalogue of both services, filters it to IT with a code list fixed before any result was known, removes the duplicates within and between them, and counts what states an end date in the year ahead. Forward expiry views of these feeds do exist commercially — PSIP sells one across five UK portals, Stotles publishes a free browsable list, Tussell has published forward IT expiry totals for central government — and they are cited below. What is published here is the method: the IT definition, the deduplication rule, five ways of totalling the same pounds, and the dataset itself.
- 9,416 — IT contracts reaching their stated end date in the next 12 months. 9,416 published UK public sector IT contracts state an end date in the window 25 September 2026 to 24 September 2027 inclusive. 6,819 come from Contracts Finder and 2,597 from Find a Tender.
- 1,430 — distinct buyer names holding at least one of them. 1,430 distinct buyer names, counted by normalised name, hold at least one expiring IT contract; those normalise from 1,613 spellings as published. 896 of them match a name on the Cabinet Office buyer register, which lists 7,753 registrations covering 7,337 distinct names as published, 7,132 after the same normalisation. That match rate errs in both directions and is context, not a denominator.
- March 2027 — the biggest single month. 2,082 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts (22.1%) state an end date in March 2027, more than twice the monthly average. 1,405 of them fall on 31 March 2027 alone - the last day of the UK financial year.
- £130.13 bn — stated value reaching its end date, summed as published. £130.13 bn as published. On the pre-registered primary-CPV sensitivity the same window is £62.09 bn; with framework and multi-supplier ceilings removed it is £97.12 bn; with in-notice repeats collapsed £124.02 bn. The median expiring contract is £108,068. A floor and an over-count at the same time, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of it sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, and the single largest notice in it is a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework classified to CPV division 09. Print all three or print none.
Contracts Finder and Find a Tender, snapshot 25 September 2026. n = 9,416 expiring IT contracts. The window runs 25 September 2026 to 24 September 2027 inclusive.
How much, how many, and how many buyers
9,416 published UK public sector IT contracts state an end date in the 12 months to 24 September 2027. They are held by 1,430 distinct buyers. The 8,928 of them that state a positive sterling amount total £130.13 bn as published - a figure that is simultaneously a floor and an over-count, for reasons set out below.
| Step in the funnel | Contracts Finder | Find a Tender | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Award rows harvested and normalised | 459,650 | — | — |
| After deduplication by OCID within the service | 438,221 | — | — |
| Ending in the window, all CPV divisions | 28,967 | 17,040 | — |
| After the second within-service rule, all CPV divisions | 28,688 | 16,777 | — |
| After deduplication across the two services, all CPV divisions | — | — | 45,403 |
| Pre-registered core IT basket, after both within-service rules | 6,819 | 2,606 | 9,425 |
| Published, after deduplication across the two services | 6,819 | 2,597 | 9,416 |
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Every step is a real count, not a rounded one, and every cell belongs to the stage its row names, so the funnel can be followed from all published award notices to the 9,416that are both IT and ending in the window. The two services’ all-CPV rows sum to 46,007 where they first enter the window and to 45,403 where they leave it: 542 rows are removed by the second within-service rule, which catches a contract republished under a new OCID inside one service, and 62 more across the two services. The Find a Tender column carries no separate OCID-deduplication step because that service publishes a contract end date only on notices from 24 February 2025 and its expiry view is already window-filtered. A stated end date is not the date a contract ends. Extensions, options and early termination are invisible in published notices. The buyer count is of distinct names inside the expiring set. It is not a fraction of the Cabinet Office register.
| Whether a contract states a value | Contracts | Share of the 9,416 |
|---|---|---|
| States a positive sterling amount, and is in the total | 8,928 | 94.82% |
| Value stated as zero | 131 | 1.39% |
| No value stated | 294 | 3.12% |
| Value stated in USD, not converted | 44 | 0.47% |
| Value stated as a negative amount | 1 | 0.01% |
| Value stated in EUR, not converted | 18 | 0.19% |
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Nothing in the right-hand column is estimated or converted. A contract with no stated value, a zero, or a value in dollars or euros is counted and excluded, which is one of the two reasons the £130.13 bn is a floor; the other is that Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025, so a contract whose only notice predates that regime is invisible to it. That is a publication limit, not a signature one: 19 rows here were signed before that date and reached the dataset through a later Procurement Act notice, the earliest signed 30 June 2012. The same figure is an over-count for a different reason, set out below: framework ceilings are counted alongside the call-offs placed under them, and it is not a measure of IT spend for a third, set out under the money.
One month carries the cliff, and one day inside it
2,082 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts (22.1%) end in March 2027, against an average of 787 across the eleven whole months in the window - September 2026 and September 2027 are part-months and are left out of that average. 1,405 of those - 67.5% of the month and 14.9% of the whole year - state 31 March 2027 as their end date. That is the last day of the UK financial year. The clustering is consistent with buyers aligning contract periods to the financial year, which would make the date a publishing convention as much as an operational one; this study cannot observe when a contract in practice ends, so that reading is an inference from the dates, not a measurement.
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Source: Contracts Finder and Find a Tender daily bulk files (OGL v3.0), snapshot 25 September 2026. n = 9,416. Sept 2026 and Sept 2027 are part-months, drawn hatched, and are excluded from the average line.
| Month the stated contract period ends | Contracts | Share of the 9,416 | Stated value (£m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 (part-month) | 511 | 5.4% | 756 |
| October 2026 | 721 | 7.7% | 7,915 |
| November 2026 | 637 | 6.8% | 6,392 |
| December 2026 | 813 | 8.6% | 5,514 |
| January 2027 | 630 | 6.7% | 1,127 |
| February 2027 | 612 | 6.5% | 61,917 |
| March 2027 | 2,082 | 22.1% | 5,049 |
| April 2027 | 663 | 7.0% | 1,708 |
| May 2027 | 609 | 6.5% | 2,226 |
| June 2027 | 665 | 7.1% | 1,596 |
| July 2027 | 688 | 7.3% | 26,851 |
| August 2027 | 537 | 5.7% | 7,768 |
| September 2027 (part-month) | 248 | 2.6% | 1,307 |
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The value column is there to show why it is not the story. February 2027 carries the largest stated sum, £61.92 bn, on far fewer contracts than March 2027, because a single central framework ceiling sits in it. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework. It is also a floor: contracts stating zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing are excluded rather than estimated. The first and last months of the window are partial: the window opens on 25 September 2026 and closes on 24 September 2027, so September 2026 and September 2027 each hold a part-month and must not be compared with a whole one. The biggest month is the same on all eight CPV basket and field-rule cuts, which is why it is reported as a finding rather than an artefact of the IT definition.
Why the pounds move so much more than the count
Changing the IT definition from the pre-registered any-CPV rule to its primary-CPV sensitivity changes the contract count by 331 (3.5%) but the money from £130.13 bn to £62.09 bn. The reason is concentration. Both of those sterling figures are a floor and an over-count at the same time: a floor because contracts stating zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing are excluded rather than estimated and Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025; an over-count because framework ceilings are counted alongside the call-offs placed under them. The largest single notice alone is 39.19% of the total; 3 notices carry half of it and 54 carry nine tenths. Remove the largest 1% of rows and £130.13 bn becomes £8.41 bn. The median expiring contract is £108,068. A total or a mean describes a handful of central frameworks, not the estate, which is why this study leads on the contract count. That is a claim about this pair of cuts, not about every cut: widening or narrowing the CPV basket changes what is being counted and moves the count a great deal, as the sensitivity table below shows.
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Source: computed from the published dataset. Denominator: the 8,928 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts that state a positive sterling amount. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework.
| How the total is built | Stated value | Valued rows in the total |
|---|---|---|
| As published (the pre-registered headline) | £130.13 bn | 8,928 |
| In-notice repeats collapsed | £124.02 bn | 8,835 |
| In-notice repeats collapsed AND framework and multi-supplier ceilings excluded | £97.12 bn | 8,716 |
| Primary-CPV field rule (pre-registered sensitivity) | £62.09 bn | 8,628 |
| Largest 1% of valued rows excluded | £8.41 bn | 8,839 |
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Five ways of adding up the same window and the same pre-registered basket, all published so a reader can pick one and rebuild it from the dataset. Every figure in the right-hand column is a count of valued rows — the rows the sterling figure beside it is summed over — so a mean per row is that row’s value divided by that row’s count. The primary-CPV sensitivity covers fewer contracts as well: 9,085 of the 9,416, of which 8,628 state a positive sterling amount. The third row is cumulative on the second, not an independent cut of the first: rebuild it from the CSV by summing value_amount_gbp where value_used_in_gbp_total = 1 and in_notice_repeat = 0 and aggregated_award = 0. The headline is the first row because it is the pre-registered basis, not because it is the best estimate of committed spend. Contracts Finder publishes no framework flag of its own, so on that service this rests on notice titles and supplier counts alone and is certainly incomplete. The single largest expiring row in the study is not caught by it. 172 of the 9,416 contracts are flagged as aggregated awards, carrying £32.93 bn between them. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework.
| CPV basket | Field rule | Contracts | Buyers | Stated value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| narrow | any CPV code on the notice | 4,764 | 1,073 | £123.22 bn |
| narrow | primary CPV code only | 4,104 | 964 | £36.17 bn |
| core (pre-registered headline) | any CPV code on the notice | 9,416 | 1,430 | £130.13 bn |
| core | primary CPV code only | 9,085 | 1,389 | £62.09 bn |
| core plus adjacent | any CPV code on the notice | 9,729 | 1,445 | £131.18 bn |
| core plus adjacent | primary CPV code only | 9,388 | 1,406 | £64.65 bn |
| wide | any CPV code on the notice | 9,945 | 1,472 | £130.94 bn |
| wide | primary CPV code only | 9,612 | 1,429 | £62.95 bn |
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The IT definition was fixed and hashed before any of these numbers existed, and was not adjusted after seeing them. Widening or narrowing the basket changes what is being counted, so the count moves with it: across all 8 cuts it runs from 4,104 to 9,945, with the pre-registered core basket at 9,416. The useful comparison is the pair that holds the basket still: on the core basket, changing only the field rule moves the count by 3.5%, from 9,416 to 9,085, and the stated value by a factor of 2.1. The two wider baskets are not nested in one another, so this table is not monotone and is not meant to be: the wide basket takes CPV divisions 30, 32, 48 and 72 whole, while core-plus-adjacent instead adds codes that sit outside those four divisions — IT maintenance, IT installation and telecommunications services — which the wide basket therefore does not contain. That is why the wide cut holds more contracts than core-plus-adjacent and less money. Four of these eight cuts cannot be rebuilt from the published CSV — core-plus-adjacent and wide, under both field rules — because that file is the core cut, so its in_core, in_core_plus_adjacent and in_wide columns all read 1 on every row and the extra rows the wider baskets add are simply not in it. The other four do rebuild from it, using the in_narrow, in_core and in_core_primary_cpv_rule columns. Rerun the analysis script for the wider two. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework. The CPV rule was written and hashed before any expiring value was computed and has not been changed since. The any-CPV field rule is over-inclusive by construction - a large non-IT contract carrying one IT sub-code counts whole - and that bias is in the pre-registration, not a discovery. Contracts Finder publishes no framework flag, so the aggregated-award count is a floor on that service and the excluded-ceilings total is an upper bound on what remains.
| Largest stated values ending in the window | Buyer | Stated end date | Primary CPV division | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply of Energy 2 | Crown Commercial Service | 26 February 2027 | 09 — Petroleum products, fuel, electricity and other sources of energy | £51.00 bn |
| National Framework Agreement for the Provision of Digital Enablement and Transformation Solutions | Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust | 8 February 2027 | 30 — Computer equipment and supplies | £10.00 bn |
| Digital Outcomes and Specialists 7 | Crown Commercial Service | 29 July 2027 | 72 — IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support | £6.70 bn |
| Network Services 3 Award Notice for Lot 1a, Lot 1b, Lot 2a, Lot 3a, Lot 3b, Lot 4a, Lot 4b, Lot 4c, Lot 4d and Lot 4e | Crown Commercial Service | 17 July 2027 | 31 — Electrical machinery, apparatus, equipment and consumables; lighting | £6.37 bn |
| Back Office Software 2 | Crown Commercial Service | 17 August 2027 | 48 — Software package and information systems | £5.00 bn |
| Digital Outcomes and Specialists 7 | Crown Commercial Service | 29 July 2027 | 72 — IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support | £3.24 bn |
| Digital and Legacy Application Services (DALAS) | Crown Commercial Service | 26 July 2027 | 72 — IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support | £3.20 bn |
| Digital and Legacy Application Services (DALAS) Lots 1, 4a & 4b | Crown Commercial Service | 24 July 2027 | 72 — IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support | £2.80 bn |
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Buyers, not suppliers: there is no supplier column, no supplier ranking and no supplier-level total anywhere in this study. That is not the same as no supplier appearing: buyers write supplier names into their own notice titles, and 44 of the 9,416 titles here carry a company suffix — a case-sensitive match of \b(?:Ltd|Limited|PLC|LLP|Inc|GmbH)\bagainst the title, the pattern being published because the same search ignoring case returns more. Titles are reproduced exactly as published, under OGL v3.0. The largest row is the clearest illustration of the pre-registered rule’s own bias — an energy framework whose primary code sits in CPV division 09, which enters the IT basket only through incidental sub-codes on the same notice, and which is 39.2% of the sterling total on its own. The rule was not changed after that was found; the primary-CPV sensitivity above, which drops it, is published instead. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework.
What the two services can and cannot see
6,819 of the 9,416 expiring IT contracts come from Contracts Finder and 2,597 from Find a Tender. That split is not a measure of where UK procurement happens. Find a Tender states a contract end date only on notices PUBLISHED from 24 February 2025, when the Procurement Act 2023 regime began. A contract signed earlier reaches the dataset only if a later notice under that regime restates it - 19 rows here do, the earliest signed 30 June 2012 - so most of what expires in 2026-27 is visible only through Contracts Finder. That is why the whole published back catalogue was harvested rather than a guessed window.
| Year the notice was published | Expiring IT contracts | Share of the 9,416 |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 12 | 0.1% |
| 2018 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 16 | 0.2% |
| 2020 | 27 | 0.3% |
| 2021 | 111 | 1.2% |
| 2022 | 425 | 4.5% |
| 2023 | 789 | 8.4% |
| 2024 | 2,045 | 21.7% |
| 2025 | 2,175 | 23.1% |
| 2026 | 3,808 | 40.4% |
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A contract ending in the next 12 months can have been published at any point in the last decade, which is why the whole back catalogue was harvested rather than a guessed window. 1,509 of the 9,416 were published between three and six years before their stated end date, and 6 more than ten years before it.
| Deduplication across the two services | Headline IT cut | All CPV divisions |
|---|---|---|
| Find a Tender rows the test is run over | 16,777 | 16,777 |
| Contracts Finder rows tested against | 28,688 | 28,688 |
| Find a Tender rows falling in this cut | 2,606 | 16,777 |
| Matches under strict key A (buyer name carried) | 4 | 38 |
| Matches under strict key B (buyer name ignored) | 9 | 62 |
| Matches under either strict key, removed | 9 | 62 |
| Matches under the loose key only, flagged and kept | 7 | 30 |
| Rows removed across the two services | 9 | 62 |
| Rows removed within a service, beyond OCID | — | 542 |
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The test is run once, over the whole all-CPV expiring set of each service, and every basket cut reuses its flags — so the two rows-tested figures are the same in both columns, and the match counts below them are the matches that fall inside the cut the column names. The column of the published CSV that records this is cross_service_duplicate_test, which reads “loose” on exactly the 7 rows kept under the loose key; the rows matching a strict key were removed before publication and are not in the file. Strict key A: normalised buyer name + normalised title + value in whole units + contract start date + contract end date. Strict key B: normalised title + contract end date + value in whole units, buyer name ignored. Loose rule: normalised buyer name + normalised title + contract end date. A row matching either strict key is removed; the Contracts Finder row is kept; the Find a Tender row is removed. Rows matching only the loose key are flagged and kept, because that key ignores the stated value. Contracts Finder issues Open Contracting identifiers beginning ocds-b5fd17 and Find a Tender ocds-h6vhtk; because the two ranges cannot intersect, joining on OCID across the services returns zero matches whatever the real overlap is, which is why a second rule is needed at all. Key B exists because the buyer name is the field the two services record differently — the same body is “Lancashire Constabulary” on one and “Police and Crime Commissioner for Lancashire” on the other. Inside one service, OCID deduplication cannot see a contract republished under a new OCID either, so key A is applied there too and removed 542 further rows across all CPV divisions. A buyer-independent version of that key would remove 23 more and is deliberately not applied, because within one service it also matches genuinely different buyers; its size is published rather than acted on. OCID cannot deduplicate across the two services. Contracts Finder issues ocds-b5fd17-... and Find a Tender ocds-h6vhtk-...; because the two ranges cannot intersect, joining on OCID across the services returns zero matches whatever the real overlap is. That result must never be cited as evidence the two sets do not overlap - it is why the secondary rule exists. The measured overlap under the published secondary rule is small, but a strict key finding nothing is evidence about the key as much as about the overlap. The buyer-independent key B exists because the buyer name is the field that differs between the services, and the loose rule is published beside both because it ignores the stated value and so cannot tell a duplicate from a renewal at a different price.
Who the buyers are, and why there is no 'M of 7,753'
1,430 distinct buyer names hold at least one expiring IT contract. 896 of them (62.66%) match a name on the Cabinet Office buyer register. The register cannot be used as a denominator: it holds 7,753 registrations, not organisations, resolving to 7,132 distinct names, and it is not a superset of the bodies that publish procurement notices.
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Source: primary CPV code on each notice, described with the official CPV 2008 English wording from Annex I to Regulation (EC) No 2195/2002 as it stands in assimilated UK law (legislation.gov.uk). Those descriptions are EUR-Lex-derived and are re-used under Commission Decision 2011/833/EU, not the OGL — © European Union, https://eur-lex.europa.eu. Denominator: all 9,416 expiring IT contracts. A notice enters the study on any IT code recorded on it, so its primary code is not always an IT one.
| Primary CPV division | An IT division? | Contracts | Stated value | Share of the stated total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 — Petroleum products, fuel, electricity and other sources of energy | no | 7 | £51.29 bn | 39.4% |
| 72 — IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support | yes | 4,104 | £36.17 bn | 27.8% |
| 30 — Office and computing machinery, equipment and supplies except furniture and software packages | yes | 360 | £13.46 bn | 10.3% |
| 48 — Software package and information systems | yes | 4,282 | £12.13 bn | 9.3% |
| 31 — Electrical machinery, apparatus, equipment and consumables; lighting | no | 5 | £8.87 bn | 6.8% |
| 66 — Financial and insurance services | no | 17 | £2.61 bn | 2.0% |
| 71 — Architectural, construction, engineering and inspection services | no | 68 | £2.45 bn | 1.9% |
| 64 — Postal and telecommunications services | no | 10 | £1.56 bn | 1.2% |
| 32 — Radio, television, communication, telecommunication and related equipment | yes | 400 | £0.53 bn | 0.4% |
| 75 — Administration, defence and social security services | no | 1 | £0.43 bn | 0.3% |
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The count and the money point in opposite directions, and this is the table that shows it. By contract count the study is overwhelmingly IT. By stated value it is not: 52.1% of the £130.13 bn sits on 270 contracts whose primary code is outside CPV divisions 30, 32, 48 and 72, and division 09 alone — petroleum products, fuel, electricity and other sources of energy — carries £51.29 bn. Those contracts are here because the pre-registered field rule counts a notice as IT on any IT code recorded anywhere on it. The rule was not changed after this was found; the primary-CPV sensitivity, which drops them, is published beside the headline at £62.09 bn. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework. It is also a floor: contracts stating zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing are excluded rather than estimated, and Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025. And it is an over-count, because framework ceilings are counted alongside the call-offs placed under them.
| Buyer | Expiring IT contracts | Stated value (£m) | Name matches the Cabinet Office register |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINISTRY OF DEFENCE | 176 | 971 | yes |
| UK SHARED BUSINESS SERVICES LIMITED | 168 | 92 | yes |
| Home Office | 139 | 944 | yes |
| UK Research and Innovation | 136 | 15 | yes |
| NHS England | 131 | 734 | yes |
| NHS SOUTH, CENTRAL AND WEST COMMISSIONING SUPPORT UNIT | 92 | 22 | yes |
| H M REVENUE & CUSTOMS | 91 | 2,790 | yes |
| BANK OF ENGLAND | 84 | 237 | yes |
| Crown Commercial Service | 82 | 90,639 | no |
| Department for Work and Pensions | 79 | 671 | yes |
| Met Office | 71 | 25 | yes |
| Ministry of Justice | 68 | 367 | yes |
| UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) | 66 | 9 | no |
| Office for National Statistics | 61 | 18 | yes |
| UK Health Security Agency | 59 | 115 | yes |
| CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST | 59 | 2 | yes |
| Department for Education | 57 | 267 | yes |
| National Highways Limited | 56 | 19 | yes |
| Financial Conduct Authority | 54 | 599 | no |
| DVLA - Driver & Vehicle Licensing Agency | 53 | 34 | no |
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This ranks how many contracts a body publishes, which is a measure of publishing behaviour as much as of buying behaviour: a central purchasing body that publishes one framework covering hundreds of organisations appears once. A “no” in the last column does not mean the body is unregistered — 7,753 is a count of registrations, not of organisations: it resolves to 7,337 distinct names as published, 7,132 after normalisation, and 17 of the registrations are de-registered. The register is also not a superset of notice publishers - bodies that publish procurement notices without being registered appear in the notices and not in the register. Matching is by name because most notices publish no buyer identifier at all, and where the register's own identifier IS published it joins but often resolves to a different registered name. A matched fraction therefore errs in both directions and is reported as context, never as 'M of 7,753'. Value is more concentrated by buyer than by notice, and the ranking above hides it: Crown Commercial Service carries 69.7% of the £130.13 bn on 82 notices, on framework ceilings shared across every appointed supplier. Sterling figures are a floor on valued notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework. Buyer names are matched by normalisation, which misses wording variants (Wirral Borough Council against Wirral Council) and cannot tell an aggregator buying on another body's behalf from the body itself. Buyers are ranked by how many contracts they publish, which is a measure of publishing behaviour as much as of buying behaviour. A central purchasing body publishing one framework for hundreds of bodies appears once.
How this was measured, and what it cannot show
How these figures were produced
- Every award or signed-contract notice published on Contracts Finder or the Find a Tender Service whose stated contract period ends in the 12 months after the snapshot date, filtered to IT by a pre-registered CPV rule, deduplicated within and across the two services, and aggregated by month, by buyer and by CPV division.
- Snapshot 25 September 2026. Contracts Finder harvested in full 17 December 2014 to 23 September 2026 (4,107 daily bulk files, 666,127 rows, plus 69 OCDS API pages repairing 20 days the publisher serves broken). Find a Tender harvested in full 1 January 2021 to 24 September 2026 (2,006 daily ZIPs, 325,944 notice files).
- Both services were harvested from their bulk files on data.gov.uk, published by Crown Commercial Service, not through their OCDS APIs. The APIs are rate limited at 12 requests per two minutes - measured, not assumed - so a full harvest through them is neither viable nor polite. They were used only to repair 20 broken publication days and for spot checks, at one request every 11 seconds.
- robots.txt was read for every host before any request. The CKAN API behind data.gov.uk disallows /api/, so the file index was built from the human-readable dataset pages instead, which robots.txt permits. Fetching was capped at three requests a second with at most two in flight, under an identifying User-Agent, and every response was cached to a dated snapshot directory.
- Personal data was stripped at source: 1,547,565 non-empty contactPoint cells dropped from the Contracts Finder CSVs before writing, 5,667 contactPoint objects deleted from the API releases, 264,270 contactPoint objects in the Find a Tender corpus never read, and 17 e-mail addresses that buyers had typed into free-text fields scrubbed. A regex sweep of every published output confirms none remains.
- Notices were normalised to one row per award or signed-contract block. Planning, tender and pipeline notices carry no award block and never enter.
- Deduplicated within each service by OCID - Contracts Finder republishes an amended contract under the same OCID, which removed 21,311 rows here.
- Deduplicated within each service a second time, because OCID cannot see the same contract republished under a NEW OCID. The secondary rule is normalised buyer name + normalised title + stated value in whole units + contract end date, across different OCIDs, keeping the earliest-published; it removed 542 further rows. A buyer-independent version of that key would remove 23 more and is deliberately not applied, because inside one service it also matches genuinely different buyers; its size is published instead.
- Filtered to IT by the pre-registered CPV rule: the core basket of 702 CPV 2008 codes, counting a notice as IT if any code recorded anywhere on it is in the basket. The rule was written from the official vocabulary and hashed before any expiring value or count existed (2026-09-25T09:21:52Z, sha256 7da4db343cfe2aa3f02a6fa150a2f43ab412007d1e403ff3daaa56722adf74d7). It has not been changed since.
- Filtered to contracts whose stated end date falls inside the window.
- Deduplicated across the two services by a published secondary rule, because Contracts Finder issues ocds-b5fd17-... and Find a Tender ocds-h6vhtk-... and the two ranges cannot intersect, so an OCID join across them returns zero matches whatever the real overlap is. Two strict keys are used: key A carries the buyer name, key B drops it and requires an exact stated value instead, because the buyer name is the field the two services record differently. On the headline cut key A matched 4 rows and key B 9, 9 in total, out of 16,777 Find a Tender rows tested; a further 7 matched only the loose key, which ignores the value, and were flagged and kept. The test runs once over the whole all-CPV expiring set of each service and every basket cut reuses the flags, so the rows tested are the all-CPV sets, not the IT basket, and the match counts are the matches falling inside the cut.
- The Contracts Finder side was re-derived for this analysis from the normalised award table rather than copied from the collection stream's own funnel file, so the two can be compared. Every comparison is published, agreement and disagreement alike.
Limits
- A stated end date is not the date a contract ends.
- Only notices that were published can be counted. Below-threshold and exempt contracting is not in scope of either service's publication duty.
- Value is what the buyer published. It is never converted, estimated or inferred.
- The IT definition is a CPV rule. A buyer who codes an IT purchase to a general office code is invisible to it, and that was accepted in writing in advance.
- Contracts Finder publishes no framework flag in its bulk files, so aggregated awards can only be partly identified on that service.
- The pre-registered any-CPV field rule is over-inclusive on value by construction: a contract whose primary code is not an IT one counts at its full stated value if a single IT sub-code appears anywhere on the notice. Most of the sterling total is on such contracts, and the primary-CPV variant is published beside the headline so the effect can be read off.
- Deduplication within a service is by OCID and then by buyer name, title, value and end date. A body publishing the same contract twice under two OCIDs AND two different names is not caught; a buyer-independent key would catch it but would also merge genuinely different buyers, so its measured size is disclosed rather than acted on.
- Four of the eight CPV cuts cannot be rebuilt from the published CSV: core_plus_adjacent and wide, under both field rules. That file is the core cut, so in_core, in_core_plus_adjacent and in_wide all read 1 on every row in it and the extra rows the two wider baskets add are not in the file at all. The other four - narrow and core, under both field rules - do rebuild from it, using in_narrow, in_core and in_core_primary_cpv_rule. Rerun the analysis script for the wider two.
Deliberately not done
- No supplier column, no supplier ranking and no supplier-level total. Buyers do write supplier names into their own notice titles, which are reproduced as published.
- No prediction of what will be re-procured or re-competed.
- No mixing of pipeline notices with expiry data.
- No bulk harvesting through the rate-limited APIs.
- No claim that this is the total value of expiring public sector IT contracts.
Where the numbers disagreed, and what we did about it
- Two artefacts of the Contracts Finder collection stream give different totals for the same 6,837 expiring contracts - which are the 6,819 Contracts Finder rows published here plus the 18 the second within-service rule removes. Not a bug in either file. One Contracts Finder notice states an award value of minus 4,000,000,000 £- a framework for ICT goods and services to the education sector, ending 2 October 2026. The funnel excludes non-positive amounts; a naive sum of the extract does not, and lands exactly 4bn lower. This analysis excludes non-positive amounts and counts them: 6 negative award values among the Contracts Finder rows ending in this window, 1 of them inside the headline cut, and 23 across the whole Contracts Finder harvest, the largest minus £30,000,000,000. The row stays in the published dataset with its value as published and a reason code, so nothing is hidden.
- The brief expected value to be missing on about 17% of notices. Neither service behaves that way. The figures are still a floor, but for two different reasons, and both are stated: on Contracts Finder because zero-valued and non-GBP rows are excluded, and on Find a Tender because the service records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025.
- The build plan named cross-service duplication as the biggest arithmetic risk. It is not the biggest, and it is not the only one. Measured on the all-CPV expiring sets of both services, cross-service duplication is small - but the first version of this study measured it with a key that carried the buyer name, and the buyer name is exactly what the two services record differently. Adding a buyer-independent strict key roughly doubled it. Two larger duplications sit elsewhere and are now handled explicitly: the same contract republished under a second OCID inside one service, which OCID deduplication cannot see; and one award block per appointed supplier inside a single notice, each restating the same ceiling. The last of those is the biggest by money: one Contracts Finder notice restates a £250 m education ICT framework ceiling once per appointed supplier.
Work that measures something similar, and how this differs
- Contracts Finder and Find a Tender themselves — Both publish and index notices as they are published, and both can be searched or filtered by publication date. Neither publishes a forward view of contracts about to reach their stated end date, and neither combines the two services. This study inverts the axis from publication date to stated end date.
- Cabinet Office and departmental commercial pipelines — Planned future procurement: what buyers intend to go to market for. The opposite direction. Pipeline notices are excluded here by design; 10,413 were identified on Find a Tender and none enters any figure.
- PSIP, Contract Expiry Tracker — A live forward expiry view of exactly this kind: UK public sector contracts reaching their published end date in the next 30, 90, 180 or 365 days, aggregated from five portals - Find a Tender, Contracts Finder, Public Contracts Scotland, Sell2Wales and eTendersNI - filterable by CPV code, buyer name, source portal and contract value, and quoting 56,000-plus contracts expiring in the next 12 months. A subscription service from GBP 199 a month (checked 25 September 2026). Wider coverage than this study on portals; narrower on method disclosure. What this study adds is the parts a reader can check: an IT definition pre-registered and hashed before any result existed, published narrow and wide sensitivities around it, a published deduplication rule with its measured duplicate counts, five published ways of totalling the same pounds, and the row-level dataset itself under an open licence.
- Stotles, public notice explorer (expiring-contracts view) — A free-to-view, paginated browser of UK public sector contracts by expiry date, including a software cut, each entry showing an expiry date and a stated value, drawn from Contracts Finder among other sources (checked 25 September 2026). That view is a browsable list, one notice at a time. This study is an aggregate with the arithmetic shown: a stated IT definition rather than a topic label, a deduplication rule between the two UK-wide services with its duplicate count published, and a downloadable dataset that reproduces every figure on the page.
- Tussell, with the Institute for Government and AutogenAI, on UK government IT contracts expiring during this Parliament (September 2024); Tussell's published strategic-supplier expiry totals — Forward expiry value at the level of central government IT and of the government's strategic suppliers - GBP 23.4 bn of UK government IT contracts due to end during the Parliament, and GBP 41.7 bn of live strategic supplier contracts set to expire in the remainder of it. Supplier-led, over a parliamentary term. A different population and a different clock: all UK public sector buyers rather than central government or strategic suppliers, a fixed 12-month window rather than a Parliament, buyers and timing rather than suppliers, and a CPV rule fixed in advance rather than a sector label. It names no supplier at all.
- Servnet, 'UK public sector and VMware after Broadcom: a contract-notice tracker' — One vendor's footprint in the same notice family, by publication over time. A different cut of the same sources: all IT by CPV, forward expiry rather than vendor mention. The two do not overlap and this one links to that rather than repeating it. Read that tracker.
Forward expiry views of these feeds already exist. PSIP sells one across five UK portals, filterable by CPV code and buyer; Stotles publishes a free browsable expiring-contracts list including a software cut; Tussell, with the Institute for Government, has published forward IT expiry totals for central government over a Parliament. Neither the data nor the idea is new here. What this study adds is the method in the open: an IT definition pre-registered and hashed before any result existed and published with narrow and wide sensitivities, a deduplication rule stated in full with the number of duplicates it removed, five published ways of totalling the same pounds rather than one, and the row-level dataset under an open licence so every figure on this page can be recomputed - or contradicted - from bulk files anyone can download.
Sources
| Source | Publisher | What was taken | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracts Finder notices, daily bulk flattened-OCDS CSVs | Cabinet Office / Crown Commercial Service | Every daily CSV linked from the 172 monthly dataset pages: 4,107 files, 666,127 OCDS releases, 17 December 2014 to 23 September 2026. | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Contracts Finder OCDS API | Cabinet Office / Crown Commercial Service | 69 pages, 5,667 releases, used only to repair the 20 publication days the bulk route cannot supply, and for spot checks. | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| UK Public Procurement Notices (Find a Tender Service), daily bulk XML | Crown Commercial Service | 2,006 daily ZIPs from 70 monthly datasets: 325,944 notice files, 1 January 2021 to 24 September 2026. | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Find a Tender Service OCDS API | Crown Commercial Service | A 100-release sample used to establish where each service records CPV, and single-notice spot checks. | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| UK buyer identifier register | Cabinet Office | 7,753 buyer registrations: name, corporate identifier, registration status. No personal data; the file contains none. | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Common Procurement Vocabulary, Annex I to Regulation (EC) No 2195/2002 as amended, in assimilated UK law | The National Archives / legislation.gov.uk | All 9,454 CPV 2008 codes with their official English descriptions. | Commission Decision 2011/833/EU (EUR-Lex re-use), via legislation.gov.uk |
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The CPV vocabulary is cited to legislation.gov.uk rather than simap.ted.europa.eu because ted.europa.eu, simap.ted.europa.eu and eur-lex.europa.eu all answer automated requests with an empty HTTP 202 challenge. The same 9,454 codes were obtained independently from the EU Publications Office SPARQL endpoint and agree on 9,450 of 9,454 English descriptions; the four differences are two CO2 subscript rendering artefacts and two modernisations of wording in UK law ('handicapped' to 'disabled'), none in CPV divisions 30, 32, 48 or 72. The OGL statement on this page covers the notice data and the buyer register, not the CPV vocabulary. Five of the six sources are Crown copyright under the Open Government Licence v3.0. The sixth is not: the CPV code descriptions are EUR-Lex-derived content on legislation.gov.uk, which states that its content is OGL v3.0 “except where otherwise stated” and that it “additionally contains content derived from EUR-Lex, reused under the terms of the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU on the reuse of documents from the EU institutions”. That is the basis for the primary_cpv_description column, the one field in the published dataset copied verbatim from a source. © European Union, https://eur-lex.europa.eu.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Servnet’s derived tables and analysis are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Downloads: CSV, 9,416 rows · README, columns and licences · JSON. The published CSV has SHA-256 15572c9f8b3193f104b36f93847893023d0ce50e5d7236a26ed595bbf26af309, and every headline figure recomputes from it alone.
Questions about the expiry cliff
How many UK public sector IT contracts reach their stated end date in the next 12 months?
9,416. That is every award or signed-contract notice published on Contracts Finder or the Find a Tender Service whose stated contract period ends between 25 September 2026 and 24 September 2027 inclusive, filtered to IT by a pre-registered list of CPV codes and deduplicated within and across the two services, as at a snapshot taken on 25 September 2026. They are drawn from 45,403 contracts of every kind ending in the same window, deduplicated the same way. A stated end date is not the date a contract actually ends: extensions, options and early termination do not appear in published notices, so this counts what buyers published.
Which month has the most UK public sector IT contracts reaching their stated end date?
March 2027, with 2,082 of the 9,416 expiring IT contracts (22.1%), against an average of 787 across the 11 whole months in the 12-month window to 24 September 2027. 1,405 of those 2,082 — 67.5% of the month — state 31 March 2027, the last day of the UK financial year. March 2027 is the biggest month on all 8 combinations of CPV basket and field rule tested, so it is not an artefact of how IT was defined.
How much is that in money?
£130.13 bn, summed exactly as published across the 8,928 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts (94.8%) that state a positive sterling amount in the 12 months to 24 September 2027. That figure is a floor, an over-count and not a measure of IT spend, all at once, and none of the three cancels the others. A floor because the remaining 488 contracts state zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing and are excluded rather than estimated, and because Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025. An over-count because a framework agreement states a ceiling shared across every appointed supplier and the call-offs placed under it are published and counted separately. Not IT spend because the pre-registered rule counts a contract whole on any IT code anywhere on its notice: 52.1% of the total sits on 270 contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, and the single largest notice in it is a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service electricity and gas supply framework classified to CPV division 09. On the pre-registered primary-CPV sensitivity the same window is £62.09 bn. It is not the total value of expiring public sector IT contracts, and it is not presented as one.
Why does this study lead on the number of contracts rather than the money?
Because holding the IT basket still and changing only the field rule barely moves the count and halves the money. On the same 12-month window to 24 September 2027 and the same pre-registered core basket, the stated total is £130.13 bn as published (8,928 valued rows), £124.02 bn with in-notice repeats collapsed, £97.12 bn with framework and multi-supplier ceilings removed, £62.09 bn on the pre-registered primary-CPV sensitivity and £8.41 bn with the largest 1% of valued rows removed, while the contract count moves by 3.5%, from 9,416 to 9,085. That is a claim about this pair of cuts, not about every cut: widening or narrowing the CPV basket changes what is being counted, and across the 8 baskets and field rules tested the count runs from 4,104 to 9,945. That total is a floor, an over-count and not a measure of IT spend at the same time: a floor because contracts stating zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing are excluded rather than estimated and Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025; an over-count because framework ceilings are counted alongside the call-offs placed under them; and not IT spend because 52.1% of it sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest single notice being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework.
How concentrated is the value of expiring UK public sector IT contracts?
Extremely. Of the £130.13 bn stated on the 8,928 of 9,416 expiring IT contracts that give a positive sterling amount in the 12 months to 24 September 2027, 3 notices carry half, 19 carry 80% and 54 carry 90%, and the largest 100 carry 94.00%. The single largest notice is 39.19% of that total on its own, and one buyer, Crown Commercial Service, carries 69.7% of it across 82 notices. The median of those 8,928 valued contracts is £108,068, so a total or a mean here describes a handful of central frameworks rather than the wider estate. That total is a floor, an over-count and not a measure of IT spend at the same time: a floor because contracts stating zero, a negative amount, another currency or nothing are excluded rather than estimated and Find a Tender records a contract end date only on notices published from 24 February 2025; an over-count because framework ceilings are counted alongside the call-offs placed under them; and not IT spend because 52.1% of it sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, the largest single notice being a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service energy supply framework.
How many public sector buyers hold a contract that reaches its stated end date in the window?
1,430 distinct buyers, counted by normalised name, hold at least one of the 9,416 expiring IT contracts in the 12 months to 24 September 2027: 1,102 normalised names seen on Contracts Finder and 657 on Find a Tender, 329 of them on both. Those 1,430 keys normalise from 1,613 spellings as published, and counting by the identifier each service issues instead gives 2,147 Contracts Finder buyer records for the same 1,102 normalised names, so all three counts are published and the lowest one leads. 896 of the 1,430 names (62.7%) match a name on the Cabinet Office buyer register, which holds 7,753 registrations covering 7,337 distinct names as published, 7,132 after the same normalisation. The register is not a denominator, but not because its identifiers cannot join, and not because they are published too rarely: 2,340 of the 9,416 rows (24.9%) publish the register's own GB-SRS identifier, under both of the two hosts the register itself uses, carrying 381 distinct identifiers, and every one of those 381 resolves in the register file. It is not a denominator because the register is not a superset of the bodies that publish notices, because on 185 of those rows — 40 bodies — the registered name differs from the name on the notice, so an identifier join and a name join do not return the same set, and because the register counts registrations rather than organisations.
What counts as an IT contract in this study?
A pre-registered list of Common Procurement Vocabulary (CPV) codes — the classification UK buyers put on their own notices — with a notice counted as IT if any code recorded anywhere on it falls in that list. The rule was written from the official vocabulary and hashed on 25 September 2026 before any expiring count or value existed, and was not changed afterwards. Narrower and wider baskets, and a primary-code-only field rule, are published beside it: across the 8 cuts tested the contract count in the 12-month window runs from 4,104 to 9,945, and the headline of 9,416 sits on the pre-registered core basket. A buyer who codes an IT purchase to a general office code is invisible to any of them.
Does a stated contract end date mean the contract really ends on that date?
No, and nothing here should be read that way. A stated end date is the end of the contract period the buyer published on the notice. Extensions, options to extend and early termination are not visible in published notices, so this study measures published intent, not outcomes. It is also a publishing convention as much as an operational one: 1,405 of the 9,416 expiring IT contracts state 31 March 2027, the last day of the UK financial year, which is 14.9% of the whole 12-month window on one day.
Where does the data come from, and can the figures be checked?
From the daily bulk files both services publish on data.gov.uk: the Contracts Finder notice CSVs and the Find a Tender (UK Public Procurement Notices) XML, both published by Crown Commercial Service. Both are Open Government Licence v3.0, though the dataset pages themselves read “Licence: Not set” — on Contracts Finder the licence is declared in the license and publicationPolicy columns inside every CSV, and on Find a Tender it rests on the data.gov.uk site-wide statement, the Crown Commercial Service publisher and the same notices declaring OGL v3.0 when served through that service’s OCDS API. Snapshot 25 September 2026. Contracts Finder harvested in full 17 December 2014 to 23 September 2026 (4,107 daily bulk files, 666,127 rows, plus 69 OCDS API pages repairing 20 days the publisher serves broken). Find a Tender harvested in full 1 January 2021 to 24 September 2026 (2,006 daily ZIPs, 325,944 notice files). The services’ OCDS APIs are rate limited at 12 requests per two minutes, measured rather than assumed, so they were used only to repair publication days the bulk route serves broken and for spot checks. The 9,416-row dataset and its README are published on this page, and every headline figure recomputes from that CSV alone.
Has anyone already published a forward view of expiring UK public sector IT contracts?
Yes, and this study is not the first. PSIP sells a Contract Expiry Tracker over five UK portals including Contracts Finder and Find a Tender, filterable by CPV code, buyer name and contract value across 30, 90, 180 and 365 days, from £199 a month. Stotles publishes a free, browsable list of expiring public sector contracts including a software cut. Tussell, with the Institute for Government, has published forward expiry totals for central government IT over a Parliament. Neither the data nor the idea is new here. What this study adds is the method in the open: an IT definition pre-registered and hashed on 25 September 2026 before any result existed and published with narrow and wide sensitivities, a deduplication rule stated in full with the number of duplicates it removed, five published ways of totalling the same pounds rather than one, and a 9,416-row dataset under an open licence, so every figure recomputes from bulk files anyone can download.
Planning around a contract end date
A stated end date in the next 12 months is a planning date, not a cliff edge for any one organisation. The tools below are the ones a buyer, or a supplier preparing for a renewal conversation, tends to need next: what the hardware behind a contract is worth keeping, what support for it costs once the maker’s own support ends, and what the licensing position looks like on the other side.
Servnet Research publishes dated observations from public sources for information only. It is not legal, security, financial or investment advice, and data are provided without warranty. Spotted an error, or want something re-measured or reviewed? See our corrections and takedown policy.
More Servnet research on UK public sector IT: the VMware and Broadcom contract-notice tracker, a different cut of the same two services; Windows Server 2016 end of life in the UK public sector; the G-Cloud 15 data-location census, which counts what suppliers declare on the framework these buyers purchase through; the public sector email security census. All Servnet research.
About this study
- What it is: a count of UK public sector procurement notices, published on Contracts Finder and the Find a Tender Service, whose stated contract period ends in the 12 months to 24 September 2027, filtered to IT by a pre-registered CPV code list and taken from a snapshot of both services’ daily bulk files on 25 September 2026. It measures what buyers published, not what happens: a stated contract end date is not the date a contract ends, because extensions, options and early termination do not appear in published notices. Sterling figures are a floor on valued sterling notices, an over-count of framework ceilings, and not a measure of IT spend, all at the same time: 52.1% of the stated total sits on contracts whose primary CPV code is not an IT division, and the single largest notice in it is a £51.00 bn Crown Commercial Service electricity and gas supply framework that enters the basket only through incidental IT sub-codes.
- Licence and attribution: contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. CPV code descriptions are EUR-Lex-derived and are re-used under Commission Decision 2011/833/EU via legislation.gov.uk, not the OGL: © European Union, https://eur-lex.europa.eu. Servnet’s derived tables and analysis are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, crediting “Servnet UK Public Sector IT Contract Expiry 2026” with a link to this page.
- Third-party names: PSIP, Stotles, Tussell, Spend Network, the Institute for Government, Microsoft, VMware and Broadcom are trade marks of their respective owners, used only to identify products and organisations. Servnet is not affiliated with, endorsed by or acting for them.
- Our interest: Servnet sells and maintains IT hardware and provides third-party maintenance, and some organisations counted here buy that kind of thing. The study names no supplier, ranks no incumbent and predicts nothing about what will be re-procured; it reports what the two services publish. No organisation paid for, sponsored or approved it.
- Errors and takedown: tell us at webmaster@servnetuk.com and we will check it; see the corrections and takedown policy.
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